Wells Fargo Championship

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The Buzz

It’s amazing how little we know about a player. How many betters picked Taylor Pendrith in the Byron Nelson last week?   Out of 33,000 players in the DraftKings game last week, 4.78% of them (about 1,500) made Pendrith one of their six picks. According to BetMGM Sportsbook, if you had bet $10 last week on Pendrith, who was +10,000, you would have won $1,010. Even if you had bet $10 on Pendrith to finish in the top ten, you would have won $90. In the 19 events (not including the Zurich), there were ten payouts like this over the year for players like Grayson Murray (Sony), Nick Dunlap (Amex), Matthieu Pavon (Farmers), Jake Knapp (Mexico), Austin Eckroat (Cognizant), Broce Garmett (Puerto Rico), Peter Malnati (Valspar), Stephan Jaeger (Houston), Akshay Bhatia (Texas) and Pendrith at the Nelson. This is amazing and makes picking winners on the PGA Tour very rare. Only Scottie Scheffler, Chris Kirk (Barley), Wyndham Clark, Nick Taylor, Hideki Matsuyama, and Billy Horschel are past PGA Tour winners who won this year and were not considered longshots. But honestly, of the six players who weren’t considered longshots, how many would people bet on? Only one was a long shot, Scottie Scheffler.

So Why is This Happening?

If you look at the world rankings, how many players were in the top 25 when they won on the PGA Tour in 2024? Only three, including Rory McIlroy, who won the Zurich team event. The other two are Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark, ranked tenth when he won the AT&T Pebble Beach in a shortened 54-hole event.

Now, I’ve been following the PGA Tour for almost 50 years, and we always see longshots like Taylor Pendrith win, but it’s not in the same realm when only three of the top 25 ranked players win 20 events.

So could it be because of the players that have gone to LIV Golf? Some of it, you have to wonder, would Jon Rahm, who has won on the LIV Tour, be a different player if he was a regular on the PGA Tour? Same with players like Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith, Talor Gooch, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Joaquin Niemann? These are strong players who have won on the PGA Tour and could easily be winners if they were on the PGA Tour.

Could signature events be the reason for all of this?

Of the 19 regular events, five are signature events, plus the big money events at The Players and The Masters, so that makes seven of the 19 events. Of those seven events, Scottie Scheffler only played in three events that weren’t on that list. Same with Wyndham Clark, he has played in ten events, seven of which are the big seven. Here is a list of some of the marquee players and how many events they have played this year:

• Viktor Hovland played in 6 events in 2024 (none of them part of the seven)

• Tommy Fleetwood played 8 events in 2024 (one of which is not one of the seven)

• Rory McIlroy played 9 events in 2024 (Missed Sentry, played three of the six major events)

• Collin Morikawa played in 10 events in 2024 (three of them not part of the seven)

• Patrick Cantlay played in 10 events in 2024 (three of which are not part of the seven)

• Max Homa played in 10 events in 2024 (three of which are not part of the seven)

• Wyndham Clark played in 10 events in 2024 (three of which are not part of the seven)

• Ludvig Aberg played in 10 events in 2024 (three of which are not part of the seven)

• Hideki Matsuyama played in 10 events in 2024 (three of which are not part of the seven)

• Xander Schauffele played in 11 events in 2024 (four of which are not part of the seven)

• Jordan Spieth played in 11 events in 2024 (four of which are not part of the seven)

• Brian Harman played in 11 events in 2024 (four of which are not part of the seven)

• Matt Fitzpatrick played in 12 events in 2024 (five of which are not part of the seven)

I believe the combination of players missing regular events like Byron Nelson last week and the players who are now part of LIV Golf are the reasons. The PGA Tour could be hurting itself by having so many signature events. We have always had the four majors and the Players. Up until this year, we also had three World Golf Championship events, so in years past, players had to play in eight major events. Now, with 8 signature events plus the five other “majors,” that is 13, so that means players will not be playing in five events like Byron Nelson last week, so that is a good reason for the high number of longshots this year.

As we look at this week’s Wells Fargo, the question of whether this event will continue after this year will come up. Despite wanting to sponsor this event in the future, Wells Fargo objected to having to pay additional money for a $20 million purse. Farmers Insurance, another sponsor that won’t be there, dropped its sponsorship of the San Diego event. How many more are on the verge of doing the same? It’s a challenging situation that the PGA Tour is in with having to match the purses of LIV Golf, but frankly, after three years, we have seen that LIV Golf is not the same caliber of events that have been a part of the PGA Tour. On top of that, we are hearing more stories of players looking for higher purses and more payouts, like the money that 193 players received last week as part of the Equity Payment Plan. Does Tiger Woods need another $100 million? Does Rory McIlroy really need $50 million? 36 of the top players on the PGA Tour sliced up $750 million of the money from Strategic Sports Group. That’s not free money; the investors in this group are some of the most savvy investors in sports and will be looking for big payouts in the future. That is money going to richer people instead of money for purses in future PGA Tour events, and you have to wonder if charities that have gotten checks from tournaments in the past will get smaller payouts.

Things You Need to Know About the Wells Fargo

💡 This is the 21st year of the Wells Fargo Championship, which has been played every year at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, except for 2017 and 2022. Eagle Point and TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms were big successes, but Quail Hollow is the course of record for Wells Fargo.

Course information:

• Quail Hollow Golf Club

• Charlotte, N.C.

• 7,538 yards     Par 35-36–71

Quail Hollow features a course rating of 75.0 and a slope rating from the back tees of 140. The tees, fairway, and rough are 419 Bermuda Grass with Perennial Ryegrass.  The greens were changed after last year’s event and are Champion Ultradwarf Bermudagrass.

One of the big secrets to Quail Hollow is that the players love the course. Located in Charlotte, North Carolina, it’s considered one of the most exclusive clubs in America and, in the players’ eyes, one of the best challenges. For years, it was considered a “U.S. Open-type” venue, and the PGA of America was smart enough to hold its major on it.

It is a private member club founded by James J. Harris on April 13, 1959. The club hosted the Kemper Open from 1969 through 1979, the PaineWebber World Seniors Invitational from 1983 through 1989, and the Wells Fargo Championship since it debuted in 2003.

The property was initially a dairy farm owned by former North Carolina Governor Cameron Morrison. In the late 1950s, a group of affluent men decided to create a private club patterned after the Peachtree Golf Club in Atlanta. George Cobb was recruited to design the course, and it opened in June 1961. To attract members, one of the founding members enlisted the help of a close friend, Arnold Palmer. Palmer liked the course so much that he was instrumental in bringing the Kemper Open to Quail Hollow. The event was played there from 1969-79, then abruptly moved to Washington, D.C. in 1980.

Palmer didn’t forget Quail Hollow. When he began playing the Champions Tour in 1980, he worked to bring the Paine Webber Invitational to Quail Hollow, where it was played between 1983-88.  Palmer tinkered with the course in the late ’80s, but a significant renovation was done by Tom Fazio in 1997.

But at the end of 2016, the course underwent a lot of changes to get ready for the 2017 PGA Championship, Wells Fargo, and any other events that will be played on the course in the future. Along with redoing all of the greens, thousands of trees were removed, a bit like Oakmont Country Club. This reshaped the way the course plays and made the elements of wind come into more effect.

Key Stats to Winning

📈 So this week’s information is based on the most important stats for Quail Hollow, data from Last year’s Wells Fargo Championship, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.

First is driving accuracy, which is essential in looking at Quail Hollow stats from last year and the years it’s been held at Wells Fargo. Last year, the course ranked 39th on the PGA Tour in driving distance (average, all holes 303.9 yards), and its 54.36% was 17th in driving accuracy (out of 58 courses). Winner Wyndham Clark ranked 19th in driving distance (all holes 312.3 yards) and T-63rd in driving accuracy, hitting only 23 of 56 fairways (41.07%).

Our second category is Proximity to hole. We consider hitting greens one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 16th in greens in regulation. In the 18 years that Quail Hollow has hosted the Wells Fargo, nine of the 18 years saw the winners finish in the top five in Greens in Regulation, with Wyndham Clark leading that category last year hitting 58 of 72 greens. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with Proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 3rd as the field averaged 43 feet and 4 inches from the hole. Last year’s winner, Clark, ranked 4th, averaging 36 feet, nine inches from the hole.

Our third category is Strokes Gained tee-to-green, which considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at Quail Hollow’s stats over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. The course ranked 2nd in greens hit last year, 10th in Greens in Regulation in 2021, 9th in 2019, and 10th in greens hit in 2018.
In driving accuracy, the course was 17th last year, 9th in 2021, 8th in 2019, and 6th in 2018. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.
Last year, tournament winner Wyndham Clark ranked 19th in driving distance, averaging 312.2 yards per all drives, was 63rd in Fairways hit, and T-1st in greens hit. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Clark was 1st, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 20th.

Our last category is scrambling mainly because of its history, where lots of greens are missed. Quail Hollow is adamant about getting it up and down since the course is a shot-maker delight. Last year, it ranked 12th hardest in scrambling out of 58 courses, with players getting it up and down on greens missing 55.24% of the time. Winner Clark was ranked T-6th, getting it up and down in 17 of the 24 greens he missed.

The winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

So the secret is that a ball striker or an excellent putter will rule and take the championship this week. I tend to favor ball striking because, in the past, that has been more important.

💵 Who to Watch at the Wells Fargo Championship

Best Bets

Rory McIlroy - He is the best player in the field. His season could have been better with just one top ten in the Valero Texas Open before teaming up with Shane Lowry to win the Zurich team event. The reason to pick McIlroy this week is his record at Quail Hollow; in 12 starts, he has three wins and nine top ten. It’s a rare week in Charlotte that Rory doesn’t play well, and this week will continue his incredible run at Quail Hollow.

Xander Schauffele - Is also a good pick; he played well last year, finishing 2nd, and despite not playing well in his previous two starts, he was 8th at the Masters, T-5th at Valspar and T-2nd at the Players.

Collin Morikawa - He has only played once at Quail Hollow and missed the cut. Still, his putting seems to be improved, and he played well at the Masters and Heritage, so he is a yes for me.

Best of the Rest

Hideki Matsuyama - Despite a struggle at the Masters, he has shown strong performance in his recent starts. His record at Quail Hollow may not be stellar, but the course suits his style.

Matt Fitzpatrick - He is a good pick because he does well on tough courses like Quail Hollow.

Cameron Young - He finished T-2nd in 2022, but that was on a different course. Still his game is off and on, look for this being an on week.