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This week's field features 49 players ranked in the top 100 of the Official World Rankings, with 18 of those inside the top 50. Headlining the field are Xander Schauffele (#7), J.J. Spaun (#12), Justin Thomas (#14), Matt Fitzpatrick (#15), and Ben Griffin (#16). Compared to last year's Valspar, which drew 54 top-100 players and 18 top-50 players, the caliber of the field is very comparable at the top.

The field also includes six players from the top 25 in the FedEx Cup points standings: Jacob Bridgeman (#1), Akshay Bhatia (#3), Matt Fitzpatrick (#8), Xander Schauffele (#17), Ryo Hisatsune (#21), and Sahith Theegala (#22).

Seven past champions are in the field: Viktor Hovland (2025), Peter Malnati (2024), Taylor Moore (2023), Adam Hadwin (2017), Jordan Spieth (2015), Kevin Streelman (2013), and Gary Woodland (2011). Notably, all active past champions have returned to defend this event, with the exception of Sam Burns, Charl Schwartzel, and Paul Casey.

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It's been a rough stretch for anyone who had money on a leader heading into the final nine. Three events in a row, a player has held a multi-shot lead on the back nine and couldn't close it out.

At the Cognizant Classic, Shane Lowry carried a three-shot lead into 16. He tried to lay up off the tee with an iron, found the water, and made double bogey. Then he did it again at 17, another iron into the water, another double. Just like that, a commanding lead evaporated. Lowry finished T-2nd, two shots back of winner Nico Echavarria.

The following week at the Arnold Palmer, Daniel Berger was four shots clear heading into the back nine. He held steady through holes 10 to 15, but Akshay Bhatia was making his move, playing that same stretch two under to close the gap to two. Bhatia then eagled 16. When Berger bogeyed 17, they were tied. Both made pars at 18 and headed to a playoff, where Bhatia won with a par.

Then at the Players, Ludwig Aberg took a three-shot lead into the final round. He was steady through the first 10 holes, but a bogey at 11 and a double at 12 dropped him behind the field. He shot a final-round 76 and finished T-5th, four shots back of winner Cameron Young.

Here's some perspective to keep in mind: looking through PGA Tour records over the last two seasons, 38% of leaders heading into the final nine holes don't win. Leads evaporate more often than most people think. That's not just bad luck; it's part of the game, and part of the gamble.

And then there are withdrawals, which are even harder to stomach. In 10 events in 2026, there have been just nine total withdrawals. But when two of them are Rory McIlroy (after round two at the Palmer) and Collin Morikawa (after one hole at the Players), it stings. A bettor has no recourse when injuries hit, and back-to-back weeks of losing contenders to withdrawals is as rough as it gets.

This is the 25th Valspar Championship. The first was played in 2000, making it the first full-field PGA Tour event in the Tampa Bay area since the St. Petersburg Open ran between 1930 and 1964. The event was not played in 2001 due to the 9/11 tragedy, or in 2020 due to COVID-19.

The tournament started life as the Tampa Bay Classic, was renamed the Chrysler Championship in 2003, and has gone through several sponsors since. In 2007, the event moved to its current March date following the Players Championship's shift to May. Valspar, a paint and coatings manufacturer, has been the title sponsor since 2014.

The tournament is played at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, Florida. The course plays to 7,352 yards as a par 71 (36-35), with a course rating of 76.8 and a slope of 144 from the championship tees. Larry Packard designed Copperhead, which opened in 1974, and it was restored in 1999. Since then, incremental renovations have extended the yardage from 7,087 to 7,352. The course features 63 bunkers and eight water hazards, with water in play on six holes.

Weather this week is shaping up to be the best of the Florida swing: sunny skies all four days, temperatures in the mid-70s, and winds staying manageable throughout the week.

Copperhead is not your typical Florida course. This is not a layout you can overpower. The fairways are tight, the rough grows in healthy, and accuracy off the tee matters more here than at almost anywhere else on the PGA Tour. Since 2005, Copperhead has consistently ranked among the shortest driving averages on the Tour each season, finishing in the bottom six every year. That tells you something: the big hitters who rely on length tend to look elsewhere, while precision players thrive.

Greens in Regulation is the single most predictive stat at this event. Looking back at the 24 champions of the Valspar, 14 of them finished in the top 13 in greens hit for the week. Seven were in the top five. Recent winners follow the same pattern: Paul Casey was T-5th in GIR in 2019, Sam Burns T-13th in 2022, Taylor Moore T-2nd in 2023, Peter Malnati T-5th in 2024, and Viktor Hovland T-7th last year. Hit the greens, and you're in the conversation.

Par-5 scoring is another key metric. All four par 5s are reachable for the average Tour player, and the champions have historically been lethal on them. The average score on the par 5s for past winners sits just under 9 under for the week. Viktor Hovland was 7 under on them last year. Taylor Moore was 7 under in 2023. If a player gets hot on the par 5s, they're going to be on the leaderboard.

Ball-striking and scrambling round out the picture. The bentgrass greens are well-protected with false fronts and subtle undulations, so players who miss greens need to be sharp from the short grass around them. Chipping is a real factor at Copperhead, and wedge play matters from the fairway given how many short iron approaches players will face.

One more compelling note: 14 of the last 15 Valspar champions went on to finish inside the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings that same year. Jim Furyk (2010) and Jordan Spieth (2015) won the FedEx Cup title outright after winning here. Winning at Copperhead tends to signal a very good season ahead. Check out our Valspar Key Fantasy Stats for a deeper look at what separates the contenders from the pretenders this week.