Valspar Championship Preview and Picks

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🏆 The Valspar Championship: A Stronger Field for 2025

This year’s Valspar Championship is shaping up to be one of the strongest in recent history. The tournament, held at the challenging Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, has attracted 54 of the top 100 players in the Official World Golf Rankings, including 18 from the top 50. That’s a notable improvement from last year and a significant step up compared to previous editions.

Among the stars in the field, World No. 3 Xander Schauffele leads the charge, joined by Tommy Fleetwood (#9), Justin Thomas (#10), and Viktor Hovland (#19). Former FedExCup champion Billy Horschel (#20), 2022 champion Sam Burns (#32), and past major winners Shane Lowry (#15) and Adam Scott (#29) are also in the mix. Other notable names include Sahith Theegala (#22), Corey Conners (#27), and Tom Kim (#28), each looking to make their mark on a course that demands precision and patience.

On the FedExCup standings front, eight of the top 25 in this year’s race will be teeing it up, including No. 2 Sepp Straka, No. 8 Corey Conners, and No. 17 Justin Thomas. Straka, in particular, has been trending in the right direction, and his form makes him one to watch this week.

Past champions are well-represented, with seven previous winners returning to the event. Defending champion Peter Malnati, Taylor Moore (2023), two-time winner Sam Burns (2021 & 2022), Adam Hadwin (2017), Jordan Spieth (2015), Luke Donald (2012), and Gary Woodland (2011) will all look to recapture their past success at Innisbrook.

The Valspar Championship has a rich history, though it has been interrupted twice—first in 2001 due to the 9/11 tragedy and again in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite those gaps, it remains a fixture on the PGA Tour schedule, often serving as a proving ground for rising stars and a critical stop for veterans looking to fine-tune their game ahead of the major season.

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

• Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players at Pebble Beach, helping you identify those who consistently contend.

• Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

• Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at Pebble Beach.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

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🏌️‍♂️ The Buzz: Rory’s Resurgence

Last week at The Players Championship, we saw a familiar name rise to the occasion—Rory McIlroy. While Rory has been a consistent force on the PGA Tour since joining in 2009, his inability to close out certain tournaments, especially majors, has often left fans frustrated. His talent is undeniable, and his record speaks for itself—he’s finished inside the FedExCup’s top ten eight times in his 14 years as a member, and he’s won a PGA Tour event in 14 of his 16 seasons. But the glaring absence of a major victory since the 2014 PGA Championship continues to define his career narrative.

Most notably, Rory has let multiple opportunities slip away at The Masters, failing to close the deal on five separate occasions when in contention on the back nine. The most recent heartbreak came at last year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst, where crucial short misses at 16 and 18 allowed Bryson DeChambeau to snatch the trophy. When he missed the cut at The Open Championship, some wondered if he was running out of steam. But McIlroy has responded in a big way, capturing The Players Championship and setting his sights firmly on Augusta. Historically, he has been most dominant from April to September, and with his renewed focus, this year’s Masters could finally be his time.

As we turn toward the Valspar Championship, a few other players are trending in the right direction. Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, and Justin Thomas are among the hottest players in the game right now, while names like Corey Conners, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Smalley, and Lucas Glover—who will all be teeing it up this week—are worth keeping an eye on. On the flip side, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Eric Cole, Nico Echavarria, and defending champion Peter Malnati may struggle at Copperhead.

Players to Watch at Valspar

The field at Innisbrook features several players coming off strong showings at The Players. Lucas Glover, fresh off a T-3 finish, brings solid form into a course that suits his game. The Cinderella story of last week, Danny Walker, who found himself in the field at the last minute thanks to Jason Day’s withdrawal, made the most of his opportunity with a T-6 finish and an $843,750 payday—nearly five times his previous career earnings on the PGA Tour. His performance earned him spots in additional events, including this week’s Valspar. Another notable T-6 finisher, Bud Cauley, secured his PGA Tour status for the remainder of 2025 via the Major Medical category and will look to continue his strong play.

Corey Conners also finished T-6 at The Players and heads into the Valspar Championship as one of the favorites. With his precision ball-striking and ability to navigate demanding layouts, he could be a serious contender at Copperhead.

Valspar Championship: History and Course Breakdown

The Valspar Championship enters its 24th edition, having first been played in 2000. While it doesn’t carry the legacy of some of the Tour’s marquee events, it holds an important place in the Florida Swing. It was originally known as the Tampa Bay Classic before evolving into the Chrysler Championship (2003-2006), PODS Championship (2007-2008), and the Transitions Championship (2009-2012) before landing its current title sponsor, Valspar, in 2014. The event was canceled in 2001 due to the 9/11 attacks and again in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The tournament has struggled at times to attract elite fields, but the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort has remained a hidden gem on the PGA Tour. Unlike many modern layouts that reward power, Copperhead places a premium on accuracy and shot-making.

Course Overview:

• Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) – Palm Harbor, FL

• Par: 71 (36-35)

• Yardage: 7,340 yards

• Course Rating: 76.8 | Slope: 144

• Bunkers: 63 | Water Hazards: 8 (in play on six holes)

• Architect: Larry Packard (opened in 1974, restored in 1999)

The course is known for its tight fairways, doglegs, and challenging approach shots, making it a stark contrast to the bomb-and-gouge style seen at many PGA Tour stops. The infamous “Snake Pit”—a brutal three-hole finishing stretch—has historically decided many tournaments, testing a player’s ability to grind out pars under pressure.

Since the 1999 restoration, minor updates have continued to lengthen the course while maintaining its classic shot values. Today, the Copperhead Course remains one of the most respected stops on the PGA Tour, a true test of patience and precision that rewards those who can navigate its undulating terrain with strategic play.

📊 Key Stats for Success at the Copperhead Course

With The Players Championship in the rearview mirror, the PGA Tour shifts focus to the Valspar Championship, where the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook presents one of the toughest tests on tour. Unlike TPC Sawgrass, which offers a mix of risk-reward opportunities, Copperhead demands precision, patience, and a solid all-around game. It’s not a course where players can overpower their way to victory—accurate driving, approach shots, and a hot putter are key ingredients for success.

Historically, this tournament has been a proving ground for great ball-strikers, as evidenced by past champions like Jordan Spieth, Paul Casey, and Sam Burns. Last year, Peter Malnati capitalized on his putting prowess to secure victory, while the year before, Taylor Moore relied on consistency with his irons. The Copperhead Course traditionally ranks among the tougher venues on tour, with its tight fairways, tricky Bermuda greens, and the infamous “Snake Pit” closing stretch testing players’ ability to grind out pars when needed.

After analyzing past results, player statistics, and course trends, these are the four key stats that will determine success at this year’s Valspar Championship:

1. Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green – The Copperhead Course rewards precision over power. Players who can gain strokes through accurate driving and elite iron play will have a significant advantage. Past champions have excelled in this category, with many ranking inside the top five in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green during their winning weeks.

2. Proximity to Hole – Simply hitting greens in regulation isn’t enough; players need to leave themselves makeable birdie opportunities. The average proximity to the hole at Copperhead has been among the most difficult on tour, meaning those who dial in their approach shots will be in the best position to contend.

3. Strokes Gained Putting – The Bermuda greens at Innisbrook are deceptively tricky, and making putts from inside 10 feet is a must. The last three champions—Malnati, Moore, and Burns—ranked inside the top 10 in Strokes Gained Putting during their winning weeks. With scoring opportunities at a premium, converting on the greens is crucial.

4. Par Breakers (Birdie or Better Percentage) – Given the difficulty of the Copperhead Course, making birdies and eagles is tough. Players who can capitalize on their scoring chances, particularly on the par 5s, will separate themselves from the field. The last five winners have all ranked highly in this stat, proving that offensive firepower is still needed despite the course’s defensive nature.

The Valspar Championship consistently challenges the world’s best, and this year will be no different. Those who can combine elite ball-striking, sharp iron play, and steady putting will be in prime position to take home the title at Innisbrook.

Who to watch for at the Valspar Championship

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