Valspar Championship Preview and Picks

A Look Back at The Players and Scottie Scheffler

Boy, have we had a lot of things happen in the last week? First, Scottie Scheffler is starting to prove that he is as prolific as Tiger Woods was. After graduating from Texas in 2018, he played at a few events before joining the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019. He had an excellent year in 20 starts, was in the top ten ten times, won twice, and led the money list with $565,338 in regular season earnings. Just like that, he was a member of the PGA Tour, joining the ranks in the 2020 season. His first year was a success; in 23 starts, he was in the top ten seven times and was fifth on the FedExCup. He was named PGA Tour Rookie of the Year and, after winning Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year in 2019, became the third player to be named Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year and PGA Tour Rookie of the Year in successive seasons, joining Stewart Cink (1996-’97) and Sungjae Im (2018-’19).

Since 2021, Scheffler has had some Tigeristic numbers. In 84 starts, he has won eight times, been runner-up seven times, and third eight times. That is 27 top threes in 84 starts, a 32% success rating. In those 84 events, he has 42 top tens, meaning that he finishes in the top ten in half of his events. Even more mind-boggling is the fact that he has won $50.5 million in earnings. In three and a half years, his earnings would be 11th in the career money list.

Sure, we know how good he is from tee to green; he hits the ball with the precision of Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, and Tiger Woods. We all know how great Scheffler is from tee to green, but what we have seen with his newfound putting is entirely unbeatable. He showed that on Sunday at the Players Championship, shooting a final round 64 to capture the title by a shot over Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele, and Wyndham Clark. It was the first time in Players’ history that anyone had won the title in back-to-back years.

After a terrible West Coast Swing, the PGA Tour has become relevant again, as the last two Sundays have produced the most exciting golf of the year.

As we have a week off from Scheffler, we will see if the momentum of the last couple of weeks can continue at Valspar. The good news is that Scottie will be back next week in Houston as everyone gets ready for the Masters in three weeks.

Things You Need to Know About the Valspar Championship

This will be the 23rd Valspar Championship, the first of which was played in 2000. The Valspar was the first full-field PGA Tour event held in the area since the St. Petersburg Open, which was played between 1930 and 1964.

Course Information:
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Palm Harbor, FL
7,340 yards     Par 36-35–71

The course has a 76.8 rating and a slope rating of 144 from the championship tees. It is part of a resort and is open to guests. The resort also sells local memberships.

The course has 63 bunkers and eight water hazards, of which six holes have water in play for the professionals.

Vital Stats for Those Playing on the Copperhead Course

Looking at Cooperhead’s stats over the last few years, Greens hit, Driving Accuracy, and putting from 4 to 8 feet are important. To win on this Course, you have to be a great ball striker and also be able to putt.

In our four categories we have seen Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as very important. The stat considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for the Cooperhead course over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and Driving Accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. The course ranked 20th in driving distance on all holes; in Driving Accuracy, the course was 15th; and in Greens hit, it ranked 3rd last year. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.

In our ranking, hitting greens is one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 3rd in greens in regulation, again reflecting how hard-hitting the Cooperhead course’s greens are. Still, for the previous 22 years, 16 of the winners have been in the top 15 in greens hit; taking it a step further, those same champions, nine of them finished in the top five, with five in the top 3, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship.
Last year’s winner, Taylor Moore, hit 54 of 72 greens and ranked 1st in his five-shot victory. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with Proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 10th as the field averaged 40 feet from the hole. Last year’s winner, Moore, ranked 23rd and averaged 35 feet, eight inches from the hole.

Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting because putting well at Innisbrook is important. The greens are average size (5,822 sq. ft.) and have little undulation, so players can do well on them. We also picked this stat because most past Valspar winners are notoriously good putters. Last year, the Cooperhead course ranked 23rd in Putting average, 50th in One-Putt Percentage, 45th in three-putt Avoidance, and 19th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.80% of the putts in this range were made.
Last year’s winner, Taylor Moore, ranked 34th in Putting Average, T-70th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 60th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 61 out of 70 putts in this range. With these stats, he was 48th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .107 shots.

Our last important category is Par Breakers because making eagles and birdies is significant. Last year, the Cooperhead course had 1,264 birdies, 5th in birdie average, and had 23 eagles made, which ranked T-14th. Winner Moore was T-7th in the field with 19 birdies and T-8th with one eagle. He was T-6th in Par Breakers.

In Summary, Here Are Our Four Choices

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: This is a good indication of players that do the best at hitting it far, straight, and then hitting lots of greens to pick up the most strokes by perfecting those combined stats.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length that a player hits it to the hole from the fairway

Strokes Gained Putting: No matter how good your game is, you must make these putts to win. This stat takes into effect everything that happens on the greens and calculates the number of shots either gained or lost.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making many birdies and eagles is impossible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course.

And a look at the top 10 using our proprietary GolfStats Golf IQ Composite ratings (our Golf IQ members can view the entire list by clicking the link)