Valero Texas Open Preview and Picks

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 🇨🇱 A Deep Field in the Lone Star State

The Valero Texas Open boasts one of its strongest fields in recent memory, featuring 42 of the top 100 and 16 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. Leading the charge are top-tier names like world No. 5 Ludvig Åberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, and Keegan Bradley. From seasoned major winners like Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, and Brian Harman to up-and-comers like Akshay Bhatia and Jake Knapp, this is a field rich with both pedigree and momentum. While slightly down from last year’s total of top-ranked participants, the presence of stars across every tier of the rankings still gives this event some real punch ahead of the Masters.

Also worth noting is the strong FedExCup presence, with eight players currently inside the top 25, including Åberg, Matsuyama, Conners, and Cantlay. Add to that a group of seven past Valero champions returning to TPC San Antonio, such as Spieth, Bhatia, and two-time winner Zach Johnson, and it’s clear that experience and form will collide in compelling ways. With so many storylines in play—rising talent, proven winners, and those fine-tuning for Augusta—this year’s Texas Open should be more than just a tune-up; it’s a showdown in its own right.

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

• Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players at TPC San Antonio, helping you identify those who consistently contend.

• Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

• Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at the Valero Texas Open.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

🍑 The Final Ticket to Augusta

For some, the Valero Texas Open is a strategic tune-up before Augusta. For others, it’s a last-chance battleground. While this event has historically been overlooked—only 24 top-100 players showed up in 2023—that changed last year with the end of the Match Play Championship. More elite names have begun using TPC San Antonio as a proving ground, even though its gusty 20-mph winds and penal layout can make it a dicey place to sharpen the swing so close to the Masters. Yet that challenge may be part of the appeal. While Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy opted to prep elsewhere last year, the demanding layout at TPC San Antonio still attracted a stronger field than usual, with many viewing it as a meaningful test ahead of Augusta.

The stakes this week couldn’t be clearer: win and you’re off to Augusta. The Masters field is nearly locked at 96 players, and with 27 in the Valero field already set for Augusta, 120+ players are swinging for that final invite. For Ben Griffin, who has played 12 consecutive weeks to claw from 68th to 51st in the rankings, a win is the only path left. Rickie Fowler, a Masters veteran with 11 starts and a runner-up finish in 2018, finds himself in the same boat. So does Si Woo Kim, whose eight straight Masters appearances are in jeopardy. Matt Kuchar, Francesco Molinari, and especially Justin Rose—all former Augusta mainstays—are hoping to delay the end of their Masters streaks. For Rose, who’s played in every Masters since 2007 and nearly won in 2017, it would be a stunning absence. With so much on the line for so many, don’t expect a sleepy Texas warm-up—this week is a pressure cooker.

 Key Stats for Success at Valero

Few events on the PGA Tour can match the Valero Texas Open in terms of tradition. This year marks its 103rd edition, making it the third-oldest tournament on the PGA Tour and the longest-running event in the same city. The tournament’s roots go back to 1922, with past champions including legends like Walter Hagen, Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, and Arnold Palmer. While the event has bounced between host venues over the decades, it found a permanent home 14 years ago at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course—a long, rugged layout designed by Greg Norman with input from Sergio Garcia. Known for its unforgiving winds and demanding shot-making, the Oaks Course has built a reputation as one of the toughest non-major tracks on Tour.

While the Valero once had a reputation as a birdie-fest—see Tommy Armour III’s record-breaking 254 in 2003 at La Cantera—the move to TPC San Antonio put an end to that. The course has consistently ranked among the most difficult stops on Tour, and last year it played as the seventh hardest, thanks to brutal wind gusts. Between firm fairways, thick rough, and fast, sloping greens, it’s a place where a hot putter and a sharp short game often outweigh pure power. And this year’s forecast promises a little of everything: muggy conditions early, scattered storms, and then a cooler, breezier Sunday. Translation? Expect more grind than glide on the leaderboard.

Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is the gold standard when it comes to evaluating who’s in control of their game from the opening tee shot to the final approach. TPC San Antonio puts a premium on total ball striking—drives must find the right angles, iron shots need to penetrate the wind, and distance control is crucial into firm greens. Last year, Akshay Bhatia led the field in both Greens in Regulation and SG: Tee-to-Green on his way to victory, gaining nearly five strokes per round in this category alone. Players who thrive here don’t just hit it long—they hit it solid, consistently, and in the right places.

Scrambling becomes a deciding factor when the greens are firm, the wind is swirling, and GIR percentages dip below 60%. Even the best iron players miss their targets at TPC San Antonio, and when they do, the surrounds are tight, shaved down, and brutal. Getting up and down requires touch and nerve, and champions here have historically ranked near the top in this category. Bhatia got it up and down 22 times in 28 chances last year—good for 8th—and that scrambling performance kept his rounds on track while others imploded.

Putting Inside 10 Feet may sound like a basic stat, but it’s deceptively important on these tricky Champion Bermuda greens. Short putts at TPC San Antonio are rarely stress-free—breaks are subtle, wind can push putts offline, and players who don’t control speed get punished. Even though the field-wide make percentage from this range is below Tour average, recent winners like Jordan Spieth and J.J. Spaun gained critical strokes with the flatstick by converting those must-make chances inside ten feet.

Par Breakers, a combination of birdies and eagles made, tells the real story of who’s capitalizing when scoring chances come along. Despite the course’s reputation as a grind, winners here still find ways to stack red numbers. Bhatia led the field in birdies last year, while previous winners like Corey Conners and Spaun also ranked near the top in this category. Making par won’t hurt you at TPC San Antonio—but it won’t win you the tournament either. To contend, players need to take advantage of the reachable par 5s and get hot with the wedges on the few soft holes the course gives up.

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