Valero Texas Open

Many will wonder if this is nothing more than a good time to take a week off. Despite having a great sponsor, this event hasn’t been a marquee stop on the PGA Tour until this week. Last year, only 24 players in the top 100 of the world rankings played in the Valero Texas Open. This year, 48 of the top 100 are in the field. Last year, only 8 players were in the top 50, with the highest rank player being #17 Tyrrell Hatton. There are 20 top 50 layers this year and four in the top 10. So why the drastic change, you ask? No Match Play event the week before the Valero; with it gone, it leaves a void for players getting their last-minute Masters preparation done. So this makes Valero very happy.

In the past, many people have passed up the Valero Texas Open due to the winds, which blow in the 20 mph range. The last thing in the world players want to do is screw up their swings a week before the Masters. But by the number of players on the field, the worry is not as great. One thing is that the TPC San Antonio course is a tough test and will be a perfect venue for players to prepare for the Masters.

Talking About the Masters

We talk about this all the time when the majors come around. Is it suitable for a player to participate the week before? That player is usually trying to prepare to play in a major. The last thing most of these players think about is winning. Of course, they want to get their games ready and don’t want to spend the energy it takes to win a week too early. 2022 was a perfect example. Rory McIlroy played in the Valero Texas Open, missing the cut, and then finished 2nd at the Masters the following week. Last year, McIlroy didn’t play in the Valero and missed the cut at the Masters, so it’s a mystery to me what to do.

In the history of the majors going back to 1950, only six times has a player won the week before winning a major. Here is the list:

• Rory McIlroy – won the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, followed by the 2014 PGA Championship

• Tiger Woods – Won the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, followed by the 2007 PGA Championship

• Phil Mickelson – Won the BellSouth Classic, followed by the 2006 Masters Tournament

• Sandy Lyle – Won Greater Greensboro Open, followed by the 1988 Masters Tournament

• Lee Trevino – Won the Canadian Open, followed by the 1971 British Open

• Art Wall – Won the Azalea Open, followed by the 1959 Masters Tournament

Things you need to know about the Valero Texas Open

AT&T Oaks features a course rating of 76.5 and a slope rating from the back tees of 148. The tees, fairway, and rough are Bermuda Grass but different strains: Emerald Ultradwarf on the tees, TifSport on the fairways, Champion Ultradwarf on the greens, and Bandera on the rough. The course is part of a resort and is open to those who stay on the path and its members.

The average green size at AT&T Oaks is 6,400 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour. It has 58 bunkers and water that comes into play on 3 holes.

The field’s scoring average at TPC San Antonio last year was 71.76, the 17th hardest course on tour. TPC San Antonio has been played on since 2019

There wasn’t anything wrong with LaCantera, the reason for the move was financial because the event now doesn’t have to pay a site fee which had been reported in the $300,000 neighborhood. The course being used is the AT&T Oaks, which will play at 7,438 yards and a par 72. It was designed by Greg Norman with Sergio Garcia as the player consulted. The course opened in 2009 and is one of the ten TPC courses that will be used on the PGA Tour this season.

🔑 Key Stats for Those Playing in TPC San Antonio

One of the keys to playing well at TPC San Antonio is hitting greens. Last year and in 2022, the course ranked 12th in Greens in Regulation, while in 2021, the course was 9th in Greens in Regulation. In 2019, the course was 13th in greens in Regulation and 9th in greens hit in 2018, which is very high, probably because of all the wind. Yes, the greens have been very tough to hit. 2017 it was 3rd; in 2016, it was the 15th hardest. In 2015, it was the 2nd hardest greens to hit on Tour, and then between 2012 and 2019, all the winners were in the top 17 in greens in Regulation, with 2019 winner Corey Conners, 2018 winner Andrew Landry, 2015 winner Jimmy Walker and 2012 champion Ben Curtis leading that stat.

Things have changed, and we may see this trend broken. In 2022, J.J. Spaun ranked T-16th in greens hit with 48 of 72. The same happened in 2021. Jordan Spieth ruined this stat, ranking T-57th in Greens in Regulation, which was the worst performance of a winner at TPC San Antonio. But things went back to normal last year as Corey Conners won and led the Greens in Regulation stat again, hitting 56 of 72 greens.

So, we get down to our four key categories. Our first key stat is strokes gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. Last year the field hit an average of 61.05% of the greens and ranked 12th. So this is important in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, our top stat to look for. Last year’s winner, Corey Conners, ranked 1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 56 of 72 greens as he finished 1st for the week in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, gaining 3.663 storks per round.
Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio and how it corresponds to the winners in the last few years in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green:
2022 – TPC San Antonio ranked 12th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner J.J. Spaun was T-16th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 48 of 72 greens, and was 5th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 2.190 shots per round.
2021 – TPC San Antonio ranked 9th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Jordan Spieth was T-57th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 42 of 72 greens, but was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 3.227 shots per round.
2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
2019 – TPC San Antonio ranked 13th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Corey Conners was T1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 59 of 72 greens, and was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 3.593 shots per round.

Scrambling is our 2nd key stat mainly because of its history, where lots of greens are missed, like at TPC San Antonio; the course is adamant about getting it up and down, and historically, we can see that players can get it up and down on greens that are missed. Last year, it ranked 30th hardest, with players getting it up and down on greens, missing 59.30% of the time. Since the course is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, winner Corey Conners was ranked 20th, getting it up and down in 11 of the 16 greens he missed.
Here is a look at the scrambling of the Valero Texas Open winners over the last few years:
2022 – TPC San Antonio finished 31st in scrambling, getting it up and down 61.11% of the time
Winner J.J. Spaun was ranked 57th. He got it up and down in 14 of the 24 greens he missed.
2021 – TPC San Antonio finished 23rd in scrambling, getting it up and down 58.79% of the time
Winner Jordan Spieth was ranked 4th, getting it up and down in 24 of the 30 greens he missed.
2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
2019 – TPC San Antonio finished 43rd in scrambling, getting it up and down 63.89% of the time
Winner Corey Conners was ranked 70th, getting it up and down in 4 of the 13 greens he missed.
Most of the time, the winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Another essential skill for success is putting. So, for our third category, we picked making Putting inside 10 feet. Last year, TPC San Antonio’s greens were some of the most challenging greens to make putts on Tour in making putts inside ten feet in, as only 87.30% of those putts were made, making it the 9th hardest on Tour. In comparison, the Seaside course at Sea Island Resort in the RSM Classic saw the most putts inside of ten feet, with 89.59%. For the winner, Corey Conners ranked 40th in putting inside ten feet, making 66 of 75 tries inside ten feet (88.00%).

Here is a look at the Putting Inside 10 Feet of the Valero Texas Open winners for the last few years:
2022 – For those putting inside ten feet at TPC San Antonio, 88.78% of the putts were made, the 30th hardest of the 36 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner J.J. Spaun made 63 of 67 putts inside ten feet (94.03%) and ranked T-7th.
2021 – For those putting inside ten feet at TPC San Antonio, 87.11% of the putts were made, which was the 11th hardest of the 39 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Jordan Spieth hit 66 of 71 greens (92.96%) and ranked T-5th.
2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
2019 – 87.62% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet at TPC San Antonio, as it was the 19th hardest of the 35 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Corey Conners made 65 of 75 putts inside ten feet (86.67%) and ranked T-50th.
So, putting is essential in playing well at TPC San Antonio.

Our last category is one in which players have to find a way of making birdies and eagles to score well, Par Breakers, since making eagles and birdies is significant. Last year, TPC San Antonio had 1,473 birdies, 34th in total birdies, and had 27 eagles made, which ranked T-23rd. Corey Conners was T-1st in the field, and there were no eagles. He was 2nd in Par Breakers.
Remember this: of the ten TPC courses, all except for TPC Scottsdale and TPC Southwind had fewer birdies (Southwind had 1,098 birdies, and TPC Scottsdale had 1,333).

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Valero Texas Open winners the last few years:
*2022 – 1,513 birdies were made (36th hardest) and 26 eagles (T-19th) as 20.07% of the holes played under par, making it the 19th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner J.J. Spaun made 23 birdies (the Best) and one eagle, which made 33.33% of the holes he played under par. He ranked first in Par Breakers.
*2021 – 1,457 birdies were made (32nd hardest) and 22 eagles (T-10th) as 18.59% of the holes played under par, making it the 15th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Jordan Spieth made 24 birdies (Best) and no eagles, as 33.33% of the holes were played under par, and he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
*2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
*2019 – 1,598 birdies were made (37th hardest) and 70 eagles (T-33rd) as 20.97% of the holes played under par, making it the 23rd hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Corey Conners made 29 birdies (Best) and one eagle as 41.67% of the holes played under par as he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

So, if you look at all these stats, who has played the best at TPC San Antonio? Corey Conners has won twice and was T-35th in 2022, T-14th in 2021 and T-26th in 2018. Charley Hoffman has been the most consistent; in 17 Valero starts has made 16 cuts and was in the top ten seven times, including a win in 2016, runner-up in 2011, 2019, and 2021, and a T-3rd in 2013. Last year, he was T-22nd. Hoffman isn’t a very good Florida player, missing three straight cuts at Mexico, Players, and Valspar. Kevin Streelman also played well in this event; he made nine cuts in nine starts, and his best finish was 6th in 2019. Last year was T-46th. We also must remember Matt Kuchar, who, in 18 starts, has made 13 cuts, including his previous 11 in a row. He was T-3rd last year and T-2nd in 2022. Kuchar has had one of the worst starts of his career; he has missed six cuts in eight starts, but coming to TPC San Antonio could be good for him.

Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: This stat is a great barometer of how a player’s game is from tee to green. It takes a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit, and proximity to the hole.

Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

Putting inside 10 feet: This is very easy. Count every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2024 with 134 of the 156 players having stats:

Valero Open Best Bets

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