U.S. Open Preview and Picks

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🏆 U.S. Open Field

The 2025 U.S. Open field is robust, featuring 82 of the top 100 and 67 of the top 70 players from the Official World Rankings. Notably absent from the top 70 are Billy Horschel (#26) and Sahith Theegala (#38) due to injury, and Kevin Yu (#62). This year's field is slightly larger than last year's, which included 78 of the top 100 and 68 of the top 70.

All 40 of the top players in the 2025 FedEx Cup standings are present, with only Bud Cauley (#41) and Jonattan Vegas (#43) from the top 50 not participating.

The tournament also boasts 11 past U.S. Open champions, collectively holding 13 titles: Bryson DeChambeau (2020 & ’24), Wyndham Clark (2023), Matt Fitzpatrick (2022), Jon Rahm (2021), Gary Woodland (2019), Brooks Koepka (2017, 2018), Dustin Johnson (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Justin Rose (2013), Rory McIlroy (2011), and Lucas Glover (2009).

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats.com tools have you covered.

• Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players at Pebble Beach, helping you identify those who consistently contend.

• Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

• Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at the U.S. Open.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice and more (we can’t fit it all into a newsletter)!

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⛳ The Buzz around the U.S. Open and Oakmont

The USGA, under Michael Whan, is ushering in a new era for the U.S. Open, moving towards established venues. Future Opens until 2040 are slated for courses with a rich history of hosting the championship. Oakmont, this year's host, exemplifies this shift, scheduled to host three U.S. Opens in the next 24 years. Pinehurst will host four in the next 22 years, and Pebble Beach will host four in the next 19 years. Other notable venues like Shinnecock Hills, Merion, Winged Foot, Riviera, Oakland Hills, The Country Club, and Los Angeles Country Club are also on the schedule.

Let’s Talk About Rory
Rory McIlroy's recent performance has been a significant talking point. After a strong start to the season, including a Masters win, his form has dipped, particularly with his driver. Issues with his equipment and struggles at the PGA Championship, where his driver was deemed illegal, have led to a challenging period, culminating in a missed cut at the Canadian Open. Given Oakmont's demanding nature, especially off the tee, McIlroy faces a significant challenge to regain his form this week.

So Who Will Win?
Predicting a winner at Oakmont is always challenging, as the course is considered one of golf's ultimate tests, comparable to Augusta National and Shinnecock Hills. Historically, a top player usually emerges victorious. While many players have a theoretical chance, a select group of about 20 are considered true contenders, including Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, and Bryson DeChambeau. Emerging talents like Ben Griffin and Tyrrell Hatton are also mentioned as potential dark horses. The high number of U.S. Open rookies in the field (44 this year) is a notable trend, though a rookie has not won the U.S. Open since Francis Ouimet in 1913.

Championship Information: The U.S. Open's history dates back to October 4, 1895, initially a 36-hole, one-day event. It evolved into a 72-hole, two-day format in 1898, and gained significant popularity after Francis Ouimet's amateur victory in 1913. The tournament introduced tickets in 1922 and sectional qualifying in 1924 due to increased demand. The format changed again in 1926 to 18 holes for the first two days and 36 on the final day. John Goodman was the last amateur to win in 1933. The event saw its first national television broadcast in 1954 and transitioned to its current four-day, 72-hole format in 1965. Notable moments include Arnold Palmer's 1960 comeback, Jack Nicklaus's 1962 playoff win against Palmer, and Lee Trevino's unprecedented 1971 victories at the U.S. Open, Canadian Open, and British Open. Tiger Woods' dominant 2000 victory at Pebble Beach, winning by 15 strokes, further cemented the U.S. Open's status.

Oakmont Country Club
Located in Oakmont, Pennsylvania, the course plays 7,372 yards with a par of 70. Its Course Rating is 77.5 and Slope Rating is 147. Unique features include the 8th hole, a par 3 that can play up to 289 yards, and the 12th hole, a par 5 at 632 yards. Designed by Henry Fownes and opened in 1904, Oakmont was intended to be a timeless test of golf. The course has largely remained unchanged, with 17 of its 18 greens untouched for over a century. A significant tree removal project, starting after the 1994 U.S. Open, transformed the course from a woodland to a more open, links-style layout, with over 14,500 trees removed by 2007. Oakmont is also renowned for its challenging bunkering. Initially, Fownes designed around 350 bunkers, with a unique furrowed raking style that made escapes exceptionally difficult. While the number of bunkers has been reduced over time (currently 168), they remain a formidable defense, designed to penalize poorly played shots.

 Key Stats for Success at Oakmont

Winning at Oakmont, a course renowned for its difficulty, demands exceptional performance in specific areas. Analysis of past U.S. Opens at Oakmont (2007 and 2016) and current player statistics highlight crucial metrics for success. Oakmont has hosted nine U.S. Opens previously, making this its tenth, the most of any club. It has also hosted three PGA Championships and is set to be a U.S. Open anchor site, hosting multiple championships in the coming decades.

Oakmont is a par 70 course playing around 7,372 yards, with a Course Rating of 77.5 and a Slope of 147. The course features bent grass on tee boxes and fairways, Kentucky Bluegrass and perennial ryegrass rough between 4 and 8 inches, and lightning-fast Poa Annua greens cut to 0.09 inches, playing between 14 and 15 on the stimpmeter. It consistently ranks among America's top courses and was designated a National Landmark in 1987.

Oakmont is widely considered one of the toughest courses in competitive golf, with past U.S. Opens seeing high scoring averages. The winning score is often around even par to three over. Historically, only elite players with multiple major championships have won at Oakmont, reinforcing the idea that "the cream always rises to the top" on this demanding course.

Here are the four key statistical categories for success at Oakmont:

1. Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: While specific Strokes Gained data isn't available for past Oakmont Opens, strong performance in this area is crucial. This stat reflects a player's ability to drive the ball effectively and hit accurate iron shots into the greens. For example, in 1994, Ernie Els, despite ranking T-43rd in fairways hit, was 1st in greens in regulation. In 2016, Dustin Johnson led in greens in regulation, hitting 76.39% of them.

2. Scrambling: Given the high number of missed greens at Oakmont, a player's ability to get up and down from around the green is paramount. Oakmont has historically been the hardest course to scramble on. In 2016, Dustin Johnson's exceptional scrambling, getting up and down on 13 of 17 missed greens, was a key factor in his victory.

3. Putts Inside 10 Feet: Although historical data for this specific putting statistic is limited, making short putts is vital on Oakmont's notoriously fast greens. Past winners' overall putting averages suggest that while they may not have been top-ranked in putting, their ability to convert crucial short putts was likely a differentiator.

4. Par Breakers (Birdies and Eagles): At the U.S. Open, and especially at Oakmont, birdies and eagles are hard to come by. Players who can capitalize on scoring opportunities and make these opportunities count will have a significant advantage.

Check out our Golf IQ Composite Ranking tool for the full list of players in the U.S. Open Field.

Who to watch for at the U.S. Open

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