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This week's U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills brings a loaded field. It includes 77 of the top 100 and 66 of the top 70 in the latest Official World Rankings. The top-70 players sitting this one out are #48 Marco Penge (hurt), #64 Eric Cole, #65 Sami Valimaki, and #67 Thomas Detry. That is a touch lighter than last year, when 82 of the top 100 and 67 of the top 70 teed it up. On the FedEx Cup side, 49 of the top 50 in the 2026 standings are here, with only #38 Eric Cole missing.

Twelve past champions are in the field, and together they own 14 U.S. Open titles and 25 majors. The group runs from J.J. Spaun (2025) and two-time winner Bryson DeChambeau (2020 and 2024) back through Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, and all the way to Graeme McDowell (2010).

If you're serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

These tools are invaluable whether you're betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for more.

This is the new direction of the USGA, a different organization than it was a few years ago with Michael Whan at the helm. Look at the future venues and they are all established U.S. Open sites. Over the next 19 years, 12 courses that have already held U.S. Opens will host more, and there is not an open date until 2043. Shinnecock, this year's host, has been a USGA institution since 1896 and is already slated to hold the Open again in 2036.

Let's talk about Scottie. His game is not bad, but it is hard to believe Scottie Scheffler has won only once this year, back in January at the American Express. The issue has been stringing together four solid rounds. Statistically there is no reason to worry: he is 1st in Total Driving, 1st in Greens in Regulation, 2nd in Scrambling, and 28th in Total Putting. That putting number is the small crack, because Scottie does not always make the key putt when he needs it. He is still the best bet this week, but the U.S. Open has been his worst major, and the added pressure of needing it to complete the career Grand Slam is real. I think Scottie wins a U.S. Open, just not this year.

Now Rory. Fifteen months ago Rory McIlroy was right where Scottie is now, one leg short of the Grand Slam, and then he finished it off at the Masters. At 37 the mission is simply to win as many majors as he can. The stats going into Shinnecock are not pretty: 41st in Total Driving, 4th in Greens in Regulation, 67th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 54th in Scrambling. He shot 80-70 to miss the cut here in 2018. But Rory carries almost no pressure right now, and he is at his most dangerous when we least expect it. Do not give up on him.

So who wins? Every Shinnecock champion has shared one trait: they were great shotmakers. Raymond Floyd, Corey Pavin, Retief Goosen, and Brooks Koepka all controlled their golf ball. Last year at Oakmont, J.J. Spaun reminded us a long shot can break through, and with the last two Tour winners being J.T. Poston and Bud Cauley, a surprise name is not out of the question. Even so, this is one of the great tests in golf, and only a small group of players can truly handle it.

Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, New York plays to 7,440 yards as a par 70 (35-35). The championship setup carries a Course Rating of 76.9 and a Slope of 146. One of the oldest clubs in the country, Shinnecock is a genuine links layout that sits on a sandy, windswept hill between the Atlantic and Peconic Bay. Jack Nicklaus once said it has a very English feel, and the comparison fits.

This is the fifth U.S. Open here in just 40 years, following 1986, 1995, 2004, and 2018. The defining challenge is the approach shots. Many greens are open in front and invite a bounce-in shot, yet history says they are tough to hit. The field hit only 46.3% of greens in 1986 and 54.67% in 2018, and the small, firm, fast putting surfaces are the reason. Look for plenty of shots to sail over the back.

Previous Shinnecock champions Ray Floyd, Corey Pavin, and Retief Goosen were short, straight hitters who were brilliant around the greens. Brooks Koepka broke that mold in 2018 with length and accuracy, which leaves the door open for a bomber this year.

Patience comes first. In 2004 the field averaged 1.62 birdies a round, and in 2018 just 1.38, so par is your best friend and a birdie is a gift.

Driving matters a lot, but only if it is long and straight. A fairway bunker or thick rough more than 130 yards out is basically a dropped shot, so the Scheffler, Schauffele, and McIlroy template of far and straight is the goal.

Hitting greens is the separator. The putting surfaces are firm and full of movement, so smart targets and spin control decide who holds them and who is left chipping from trouble.

Weather will have the final say. Thursday opens with thunderstorms, 82 degrees, and southwest winds near 19 mph, then Friday cools to 76 with 14 mph winds, and the weekend looks close to perfect at 76 with lighter breezes. On a calm day par is a great score here. If the wind shows up, it could get ugly fast.

For a full read on how the field stacks up, our Composite Rankings blend the major rating systems into one number so you can see who the data likes before you lock in your picks.

Why I'm fading the favorite at Shinnecock, plus 3 outright shotmakers and 4 top-10 plays the board is sleeping on.

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