Tour Championship Preview and Picks

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The 2024 PGA Tour season reaches its climactic finale this week at the Tour Championship, held at the historic East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. This year's event marks a significant milestone in the tournament's history, featuring a completely renovated course and the largest purse in PGA Tour history. Let's dive into the details of what promises to be an unforgettable conclusion to the golf season.

💰️ The Stakes

The Tour Championship boasts an unprecedented $100 million purse for the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings, with a staggering $25 million going to the winner. This not only represents the pinnacle of financial reward in golf but also underscores the importance of the FedEx Cup playoffs in the modern era of professional golf.

🆕 A New East Lake

Perhaps the most talked-about aspect of this year's tournament is the extensive renovation of East Lake Golf Club. Renowned architect Andrew Green was tasked with restoring the course to Donald Ross's original 1913 design, while adapting it for the modern game. The result is a par 71 layout stretching 7,490 yards, featuring:

- Completely rebuilt greens on all 18 holes

- Repositioned greens on holes 4, 6, 8, 16, and 17

- Recontoured fairways with strategically placed bunkers

- Shaved areas around greens, reminiscent of Pinehurst

- A new par 5 14th hole, extended from 520 yards to 580 yards

These changes promise to challenge players in new ways and potentially shake up the leaderboard in unexpected fashion.

🏌️‍♂️ The Field and Format

The Tour Championship features the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings, including 20 of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. Notable absences include Bryson DeChambeau, Brian Harman, Max Homa, Tom Kim, and Cameron Young, who all saw their form dip over the summer.

The tournament continues to use the controversial staggered start format introduced in 2019:

1. Scottie Scheffler starts at -10

2. Xander Schauffele at -8

3. Hideki Matsuyama at -7

4. Keegan Bradley at -6

5. Ludvig Aberg at -5

The remaining players start between -4 and even par, based on their FedEx Cup ranking. This format aims to unify the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup winners, addressing past confusion where the two titles were sometimes split.

👀 Players to Watch

- Scottie Scheffler: The FedEx Cup leader has dominated much of the season with six wins. Starting with a two-shot lead, he's the clear favorite.

- Xander Schauffele: A perennial East Lake favorite, Schauffele has never shot over par in 28 rounds here. However, the course changes may neutralize his historical advantage.

- Rory McIlroy: Starting at -4, McIlroy has proven he can overcome a deficit, winning from six shots back in 2022.

- Viktor Hovland: The defending champion showcased his ability to excel at East Lake last year, winning by five shots.

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🔑 Key Statistics for Success

Understanding the critical factors that contribute to success at East Lake is essential for both players and spectators. Based on historical data and the course's unique characteristics, four key statistics stand out as predictors of performance:

1. Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green

This comprehensive statistic measures a player's performance from tee to green, combining driving, approach shots, and around-the-green play. At East Lake, it's particularly crucial due to:

- The course's tree-lined fairways demand accuracy off the tee

- Strategically placed bunkers in landing areas require precise driving

- Rebuilt and repositioned greens necessitate pinpoint approach shots

Recent winners have excelled in this category. Viktor Hovland, the 2023 champion, ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Rory McIlroy, winner in 2022 and 2019, ranked 13th and 1st respectively in those years.

2. Greens in Regulation (GIR)

Hitting greens consistently has been a hallmark of East Lake champions. The importance of this stat is underscored by:

- The difficulty of Donald Ross-designed greens

- The newly shaved areas around greens, which punish missed approaches

- The correlation between GIR and scoring, particularly on par 4s and 5s

Historical data supports this: In 2023, Hovland tied for 1st in GIR. In 2022, McIlroy was tied for 4th. Patrick Cantlay, the 2021 winner, tied for 1st in this category. Remarkably, only two champions since 2000 have finished outside the top 10 in GIR for the week.

3. Scrambling

With East Lake's challenging green complexes, the ability to recover from missed greens is vital. The importance of scrambling is amplified by:

- The new shaved areas around greens, making chip shots more challenging

- The undulating nature of the greens, requiring precise short game skills

- The pressure of the Tour Championship, where every shot can be worth millions

Viktor Hovland's 2023 victory showcased the importance of scrambling. He tied for 1st in this category, successfully getting up-and-down 85.71% of the time (12 out of 14 missed greens). While not all winners have led this category, strong scrambling has been a consistent trait among top finishers.

4. Strokes Gained Putting

While not always the determining factor, putting well on East Lake's tricky greens can make a significant difference. Consider:

- The subtle breaks and speed changes on the newly rebuilt greens

- The pressure of high-stakes putts in the season finale

- The potential for dramatic lead changes through strong putting performances

In 2023, Hovland ranked 4th in Strokes Gained Putting. McIlroy was 2nd in this category during his 2022 victory. While some winners have succeeded without dominating this stat (Cantlay was 14th in 2021), a solid putting performance is typically necessary to contend at East Lake.

It's worth noting that the 2024 tournament introduces a new variable with the course renovation. While these statistics have been reliable indicators in the past, players who can quickly adapt to the changes and leverage their strengths on the new layout may find success, even if they don't lead in all categories.

For fantasy golf players and betting enthusiasts, considering these statistics in combination with the staggered start format could provide valuable insights. Keep in mind that a player starting further back will need to excel in multiple categories to overcome the initial deficit.

As the tournament unfolds, it will be fascinating to see how these statistics play out on the renovated East Lake course, and whether they continue to be reliable predictors of success in this new era of the Tour Championship.

🥵 Weather and Course Conditions

Forecasts predict extremely hot conditions, with temperatures around 94°F (34°C) each day. This heat could lead to firm and fast conditions, potentially favoring skilled shot-makers who can control their ball in challenging circumstances.

🖼️ The Bigger Picture

This Tour Championship represents more than just the season finale; it's a snapshot of professional golf's evolving landscape. The increased purse and format changes reflect the PGA Tour's efforts to maintain its position as the premier golf tour in the face of competition from LIV Golf.

The conclusion of this event also marks a transition in the PGA Tour schedule. For the second time since 2013, the Tour Championship won't be the year's final event. The Tour is reverting to a calendar-year schedule, with eight events to follow in the next two months. This change adds an intriguing wrinkle for players outside the top 125, who will be fighting to retain their Tour cards for 2025.

📜 Looking Back on 2024

As we prepare for the Tour Championship, it's worth reflecting on some of the season's highlights:

- Americans swept all four majors for the first time since 1982

- 11 first-time winners emerged on Tour

- Notable comebacks from Billy Horschel, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jhonattan Vegas

- Disappointments from previous major winners like Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay

The 2024 Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club promises to be a fitting climax to an eventful PGA Tour season. With its newly renovated course, staggered start format, and the largest purse in Tour history, golf fans are in for a treat. As the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings battle it out over four days, we'll not only crown a champion but also get a glimpse of how the future of professional golf is shaping up.

Whether Scottie Scheffler can maintain his lead, Xander Schauffele can continue his East Lake magic, or we see a surprise surge from further down the leaderboard, one thing is certain: the 2024 Tour Championship will be a tournament to remember. Tune in from August 29th to September 1st to witness history in the making at East Lake.

Who to watch for at the Tour Championship

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