Thoughts on the Sunday Singles at the Ryder Cup

Anybody else who stayed up Saturday night to watch the opening Foursomes cringed when the first three matches took an early lead. In the first match with Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood, they won the first three holes with pars as Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth made three straight bogeys. The next foursome match saw Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg win the first four holes and made the turn 7 up. The fourth match out saw Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton take a 3-up lead after 3 holes. At about 3 in the morning, I hoped the Ryder Cup had a "Mercy rule" like they have in Little League to put us out of our misery. I was so digested I went to bed.

It took team USA ten matches before a USA team finally won a match. The first victory in the third foursome match saw Max Homa and Brian Harman beat Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka 4 & 2. When I woke up a few hours later, the Saturday foursomes were completed, and the Europeans had a 9.5 to 2.5 lead. I wondered if there would be a Sunday if the Europeans won all four of the fourball matches and led 13.5 to 2.5 going into the Singles.

But that never happened, as in the first match out, Sam Burns and Collin Morikawa beat Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg 4 & 3. Momentum was lost when Justin Rose and Robert MacIntyre won their match 3 & 2 over Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, and it looked like Team USA was in trouble when, in the last match, Matt Fitzpatrick and Rory McIlroy had a 1 Up lead over Patrick Cantlay and Wyndham Clark. Team USA was in big trouble as McIlroy had a two-footer for birdie, and Cantlay faced a ten-footer for birdie. Cantlay made the putt to keep it just 1 down. On 17, Cantlay hit his tee shot 10 feet away on the par 3 and made the putt to get the match to all square. Then, on 18, Cantlay came through again, making a 43-foot birdie to get a 1-up victory.

/

This last-minute charge ended Saturday with the Europeans leading 10.5 to 5.5, opening a tiny door for Team USA. They go into the Singles having to win 9 of the possible 12 points to win and 8.5 points for a tie, which lets them retain the cup.

This is a monumental mountain to climb. In the history of the Ryder Cup, a comeback of this size has never been accomplished. In 1999 at Brookline, the USA team was down 10 to 6 and went out on Sunday and won the singles 8.5 to 3.5. This happened again in 2012 at Medinah when the Americans led 10 to 6 going into the singles, and the Europeans won the singles 8.5 to 3.5. Realistically, Team USA is looking to duplicate this 8.5 to 3.5 effort because that would get them a 14-14 tie, and they would hold on to the cup.

So, it's time to look at some gaming aspects and possible bets we can make tonight.

First up is how we feel about who will win the Ryder Cup.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, if you bet that the European Team wins, you will have to pay a steep price, -1200. If we bet $10 on the European Team, a win gets you back $10.83, so you make 83 cents.

For a tie, the odds are +1600, and the payout is $170 or a profit of $160. Now, if you want to bet for Team USA, it's +1400, so with a $10 bet, the return is $150 for a profit of $140.

So let's talk about the impossible. Can Team USA come back on Sunday? Of the American team, I am confident of just three players going into Sunday singles, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, and Max Homa. They have shown that they are in good form going into the singles. But I worry about three players who are having problems. First, Jordan Spieth can't hit the ball and has been a significant burden for his partner in their three matches, Justin Thomas. Rickie Fowler played in the first foursomes series on Friday and lost with partner Collin Morikawa. He hasn't played since, and there is a possibility that he could have the flu, so I worry about him on Sunday Singles. I also wasn't very impressed by the way Wyndham Clark played. His record was good at 1-0-1, but he was partnered with Max Homa as they halved their Friday Foreball match, and he was with Patrick Cantlay, who carried the team on Saturday afternoon.

Looking at the European Team, I feel they have several players doing well, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, and Tyrrell Hatton. Of those that I think have struggled, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, and Robert MacIntyre, I feel could struggle.

So, do we bet on a USA victory? The odds are so good. Yes, it is going to be tough, but to win $140 on a $10 bet is too good to give up. Frankly, I don't think Team USA is in the shape to win eight or nine of 12 matches, so here are my picks for each singles match. Again, I am going for the player I feel will do the best.

So how about the singles

Match 1, 5:35 a.m.: Scottie Scheffler (U.S.) vs. Jon Rahm (Europe)

What a perfect way to start the singles, with world #1 Scottie Scheffler against #3 Jon Rham. The Sportsbook has Rahm as the slight favorite at +115 over Scheffler at +105. Scheffler and Rahm faced each other at Whistling Straits and Scheffler got the best of Rahm 4 & 3. So Rahm is looking for some retribution, so I see Rahm winning this match. He has played flawlessly in his three matches and had an excellent finish on Friday in getting his halve in his fourball match. The good news is Scheffler's putting seems to be much better, but I don't think he is playing as well as Rahm.

Match 2, 5:47 a.m.: Collin Morikawa (U.S.) vs. Viktor Hovland (Europe)

On paper, I feel that Hovland is the winner here, but what gives me confidence in betting for Morikawa is that he and Sam Burns beat Hovland and Aberg in his Saturday Foursomes match. I know that Hovland is drastically better, his short game has improved drastically in the last few months. There is some history between Morikawa and Hovland. They faced each other in the singles at Whistling Straits and halved their match. Still, I like the $24 payout on Morikawa at +140.

Match 3, 5:59 a.m.: Patrick Cantlay (U.S.) vs. Justin Rose (Europe)

What a great match this will be. Both have played great this week. Rose has made some great putts, and many will remember how good he was in beating Phil Mickelson in 2012 1 up. I like Cantlay because he gave Team USA a chance in the singles. Many will go with Rose, who is +155, and a $10 bet returns a $25.50 return.

Match 4, 6:11 a.m.: Sam Burns (U.S.) vs. Rory McIlroy (Europe)

Boy, how I smell an upset in this match. It would help if you remembered that Burns, playing in his first WGC Match Play, won, beating the likes of Adam Scott, Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, and Cameron Young. Burns played well in his Fourball match on Saturday, and he made birdie on four of his first six holes in helping defeat Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg. Also, I like that Burns is +170, so on a $10 bet, we get back $27.

Match 5, 6:23 a.m.: Max Homa (U.S.) vs. Matt Fitzpatrick (Europe)

Matt Fitzpatrick finally got his first point in the Ryder Cup, but still, he was a part of the Fourball lost with Rory on Saturday. Meanwhile, Max Homa had a great three matches and was good in the Presidents Cup last year. Yes, Homa is the favorite, and the return on a $10 bet is just $19.09.

Match 6, 6:35 a.m.: Brian Harman (U.S.) vs. Tyrrell Hatton (Europe)

This is the hardest matchup in the singles. Both have played well this week. Both are great putters and have good matchplay records. I favor Harman because Hatton has lost his two previous singles. Also, like the +120 odds on Hatton, who will get you $22 back on a $10 bet./

Match 7, 6:47 a.m.: Brooks Koepka (U.S.) vs. Ludvig Åberg (Europe)

On paper, Koepka is the favorite and has a 2-0-1 Ryder Cup singles record, but I like how Aberg stepped up in getting to the Ryder Cup just four months after turning pro. He also played well with partner Viktor Hovland. You get $21 back on a $10 bet for Aberg.

Match 8, 6:59 a.m.: Justin Thomas (U.S.) vs. Sepp Straka (Europe)

Thomas is coming off a terrible season but has made a reasonable effort this week. Yes, he has two losses with Jordan Spieth, but those losses weren't on Thomas. Straka has done better than many thought he would do, but I will risk $10 on a $19.52 return for Thomas.

Match 9, 7:11 a.m.: Xander Schauffele (U.S.) vs. Nicolai Højgaard (Europe)

Don't automatically place a bet for Schauffele. He played terribly and was a part of three losses this week. On the other hand, Hojgaard has been impressive. He was excellent on Friday with Jon Rahm and held his own on Saturday with Tommy Fleetwood. With Haggard at +160, it's a $26 return on a $10 bet.

Match 10, 7:23 a.m.: Jordan Spieth (U.S.) vs. Shane Lowry (Europe)

As much as I don't like Shane Lowry, Jordan Spieth's game is completely lost. Spieth has a 0-3-1 singles record at the Ryder Cup and a 1-3-0 Presidents Cup record, so we don't want to touch Jordan. This could be a problem for the American team, this is the start of the weakest players on the team, and if the top do well, they need victories out of these players. Lowry is +115, so take the $21.50 return for a $10 bet.

Match 11, 7:35 a.m.: Rickie Fowler (U.S.) vs. Tommy Fleetwood (Europe)

I have to say that Tommy Fleetwood is an easy choice. Fowler has only played one match, and the rumor is that he has been sick. He lost his only match on Friday. I think he will struggle in the singles so Fleetwood is your man.

Match 12, 7:47 a.m.: Wyndham Clark (U.S.) vs. Robert MacIntyre (Europe)

The odds of this match having an impact are very slim. I still like Clark, who struggled with Patrick Cantlay on Saturday. But MacIntyre is a terrible putter and hasn't shown us much this week, so take Clark, even if he only returns $16.45 for a $10 bet.

Good luck, and I hope we have some drama on Sunday and we are winners.