Welcome to This Week’s GolfStats Insider

Welcome back to GolfStats Insider, your top source for expert tips and insights on the next PGA Tour event. This newsletter is free, but if you want more detailed golf stats, consider a GolfStats subscription. It offers detailed performance charts, easy-to-sort history, and special formulas to help you make the best choices. If you want to improve your fantasy league or betting strategy, now's a great time to upgrade!

If this newsletter was forwarded to you, we would really appreciate you subscribing by clicking the button below. Please forward to a friend if you are already a subscriber.

🏆 The Players Championship Field

It doesn't get better than this. The Players Championship field this week includes 81 of the top 100 in the Official World Rankings and 46 of the top 50. For context, the 2024 edition drew 84 of the top 100 and the 2023 field had just 69 — so this week's turnout is right at the top of the historical range.

The four top-50 players absent from the field are all LIV Golf members: Patrick Reed (#20), Tyrrell Hatton (#26), Jon Rahm (#36), and Bryson DeChambeau (#41). With LIV having taken those players off the table, the Players Championship has solidified its standing as the strongest field in golf that isn't a major. You could argue it's stronger than the majors, given that the PGA Championship still allows 20 club pros while the Players is all PGA Tour members.

Among the past champions in the field are Rory McIlroy (2019, 2025), Scottie Scheffler (2023, 2024), Justin Thomas (2021), Webb Simpson (2018), Si Woo Kim (2017), Jason Day (2016), Rickie Fowler (2015), and Adam Scott (2004). Fourteen players will make their Players debut this week, including Marco Penge, Pierceson Coody, Michael Brennan, and Michael Thorbjornsen.

The field also includes 67 of the top 70 in the FedExCup standings. The top five in points heading in are Collin Morikawa, Akshay Bhatia, Jacob Bridgeman, Chris Gotterup, and Scottie Scheffler.

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

  • Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish at The Players Championship, helping you identify those who consistently contend at TPC Sawgrass.

  • Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

  • Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at The Players.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

⛳ The Hardest Tournament to Pick

Let's be honest, The Players Championship is the most difficult event on the calendar to handicap. In the 43 editions played at TPC Sawgrass, only six players have won it more than once: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Davis Love III, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Steve Elkington, and Tiger Woods. And nobody managed back-to-back wins until Scheffler did it in 2024. That tells you everything you need to know about how unpredictable this place can be.

Of the 123 players in the field this week (14 making their debut), the all-time leader in top-10 finishes here is Rory McIlroy with five. Only four others have four top tens: Adam Scott, Jason Day, Brian Harman, and Hideki Matsuyama. A full 70 players in this week's field have never finished in the top ten at TPC Sawgrass. Chris Kirk leads that dubious list with 14 starts and zero top tens.

The history tells a fascinating story. Jack Nicklaus played here ten times and never finished better than T-17th. Tiger won twice but had just two other top tens in his remaining 16 starts. Rory missed the cut as defending champion in 2021. Jason Day missed the cut in his three appearances before winning in 2016. Scheffler finished T-55th in 2022 and missed the cut in 2021 before winning back-to-back. The point is simple: there is no "horse for this course." The cream usually rises when conditions are firm and fast, but that may not happen this year with the rough reportedly at its most severe in the event's history and wind in the weekend forecast.

The Scheffler Question

Two years ago, Scottie Scheffler was in the midst of the greatest PGA Tour season since Tiger's prime. Nine wins in 21 starts, including the Masters, the Players, the Olympics, and the Tour Championship. He earned $62 million that year. Last season, even after a slow start due to hand surgery, he still won six of his final 12 events, including the PGA Championship and the Open Championship, and earned over $27 million. When he won at the American Express in January, many figured he was heading toward another monster year.

It hasn't worked out that way. He's ranked 69th in Driving Accuracy, 88th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 120th in Proximity to the Hole. He's 146th in making putts inside ten feet. His one silver lining: he leads the Tour in Birdie Average and Par Breakers, meaning he still makes enough low scores to salvage rounds. But at the Arnold Palmer last week, he shot 70-71-72-73 and finished T-24th, his worst result in over 25 starts dating back to last year.

Before his 2024 Players victory, his stats ranked him 7th heading in, with the 1st-best Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Before his 2025 Players defense, he ranked 4th. Right now in 2026, those same numbers are barely recognizable as Scheffler's. For the first time in a long time, a case can be made to take a pass on him this week and see if the game comes back.

One storyline worth watching: Scottie and his wife Meredith are expecting their second child in the coming months. Their first child was born in May 2024, just after Scheffler won the Masters and the Heritage. Could family circumstances be a factor in his current form? It's impossible to know, but it's something to keep in mind as we head to Sawgrass.

🩺 Rory's Back: A Reason for Pause

The other elephant in the room is Rory McIlroy's back. He withdrew from the Arnold Palmer in the third round after feeling pain during his morning workout. At the time, he described it as a precautionary measure with the Players just a week away. But on Monday, he confirmed via Golf Channel that the injury is "a bigger problem than previously thought" and that he would continue treatment at his Jupiter home before hoping to travel to Sawgrass on Wednesday.

There's an old saying in golf betting: beware of the injured golfer. Backs are notoriously tricky, and a player relying heavily on driver distance — which McIlroy does — faces extra risk when that part of the body isn't right. He remains in the field and is listed at around +1100 to +1600 depending on the book, which feels short given the uncertainty. There's no such thing as a sure thing at the Players, and an injured defending champion at short odds is rarely the right play.

Health That Fits Real Life

Most of us don’t need another routine. We just need something that works. AG1 Next Gen supports gut health, fills common nutrient gaps, and helps maintain steady energy with one daily scoop. Simple, fast, and easy to stick with. Start with AG1 today and get bonus Travel Packs in your Welcome Kit.

🏌️‍♂️ Course Information: TPC Sawgrass

The Players Stadium Course — Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
7,352 yards | Par 72 | Course Rating 76.8 | Slope 155

The tees and fairways are Celebration Bermudagrass with 419 Bermudagrass rough. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda with some poa, equipped with a sub-air system similar to Augusta National that helps control firmness in any weather. The course has played to an average scoring range of 71.4 to 73.3 over the past decade and ranked 13th toughest on Tour last year.

TPC Sawgrass opened in 1981 and hosted its first Players Championship in 1982. It underwent a full renovation in 2007, when all grass on tees, fairways, and greens was removed, new drainage installed, and 122 yards were added. Over the past year, the course was extended again by 77 yards. The average green size is 8,500 square feet — medium to small by Tour standards — and water comes into play on 11 holes. There are 92 bunkers around the course.

This week, the rough is at its most challenging in the event's history. The course has absorbed a lot of rain over the past few weeks, and tournament officials will work hard to get it to firm, fast conditions. Wind is in the weekend forecast, and with TPC Sawgrass sitting just a mile from the ocean, that could make for some very difficult scoring on Saturday and Sunday. Don't be surprised to see the leaderboard shake up significantly over the final 36 holes.

🔑 Key Stats for Success at TPC Sawgrass

Driving Accuracy: The rough is thick this year, and with so many precision iron shots required, missing fairways will be costly. Players who find fairways consistently give themselves the best chance at the approach shots that define this course.

Strokes Gained: Approach: More than almost any other course, the closing stretch at TPC Sawgrass is won or lost on high-leverage iron shots. The greens are not large, and the landing zones are unforgiving. This is where champions separate themselves.

Scrambling/Short Game: With fast TifEagle Bermuda greens and plenty of opportunity to miss near water, getting up and down is critical. Players who can manage chip shots and short-game pressure tend to survive here when others don't.

Who to watch for at The Players Championship

logo

Subscribe to Premium to read the rest.

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Upgrade

A subscription gets you:

  • Picks and Previews
  • Betting Strategies
  • 2026 Player Analysis

Keep Reading