The CJ CUP Byron Nelson Preview and Picks

⛳ Welcome to This Week’s GolfStats Insider

Welcome back to GolfStats Insider, your essential guide to the PGA Tour with the insights, stats, and picks you need to stay ahead. This week, the tour heads to Texas for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney. While the golfing world might still be buzzing from recent major championships, the action doesn't stop, and neither does our analysis.

As always, this newsletter provides a glimpse into the comprehensive data and advanced formulas available through a GolfStats subscription. Whether you're fine-tuning your betting strategies or dominating your fantasy league, our premium content offers the edge you need. Let's dive into what you can expect at TPC Craig Ranch this week.

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🏌️‍♂️ The Field at TPC Craig Ranch

This week's CJ Cup Byron Nelson features a field with notable depth, although perhaps lacking some of the top-tier star power seen in designated events. The field includes 37 players ranked within the top 100 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR), with 7 of those positioned inside the top 50. This compares slightly less favorably to last year's event, which saw 32 top-100 players but 9 top-50 players.

Leading the charge is World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, a Dallas local whose participation is a significant boost for the tournament, especially after missing last year due to the birth of his child. Other top-50 players teeing it up include #20 Sungjae Im, #37 Byeong Hun An, #38 Tom Kim, #39 Sam Burns, #45 Taylor Pendrith (the defending champion), and #47 Stephan Jaeger. The field also boasts #58 Jordan Spieth, another local favorite.

Looking at the current FedEx Cup standings for 2024, three players within the top 25 are competing: #4 Scottie Scheffler, #15 Sungjae Im, and #21 Ben Griffin. Alongside defending champion Taylor Pendrith (2024), past champion Sung Kang (2019) is also in the field.

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

• Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, helping you identify those who consistently contend.

• Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

• Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

⛳ A Storied History and Charitable Heart

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson holds a unique place on the PGA Tour schedule, not just for the golf but for its deep-rooted history and remarkable charitable contributions. This year marks the 70th edition of the event, originally known as the Dallas Open when Byron Nelson himself claimed the inaugural title by a dominant 12 strokes back in 1944. After a few early iterations and a brief hiatus, the tournament found stability in 1956 and has been played annually since (barring exceptions in 1963 and 1965).

A pivotal moment came in 1967 when the Salesmanship Club took over sponsorship, renaming the event in honor of the legendary Byron Nelson the following year. For decades, particularly between 1990 and Nelson's passing in 2006, the tournament thrived, attracting stellar fields. Nelson's personal involvement, recruiting players and greeting them by the 18th green, fostered immense loyalty, overcoming any player reservations about the TPC Las Colinas course, the event's home from 1983 to 2017. Even Tiger Woods was a regular participant during this era.

However, Nelson's passing marked a shift. Player participation dwindled, though the event remained a fan favorite and a charitable powerhouse. The Salesmanship Club, consistently seeking improvement, moved the tournament to Trinity Forest in 2018. Despite being a better course on paper, challenges with scheduling, weather, and fan amenities (particularly the lack of shade compared to Las Colinas) led to decreased attendance and charitable returns. After raising $6.8 million in its final year at Las Colinas, the Trinity Forest years saw profits dip to $4.8 million and then $3 million.

Following the COVID-19 cancellation in 2020, the tournament found its current home at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney. This venue, which previously hosted Korn Ferry Tour events, offered better infrastructure and the crucial shade fans missed. The move proved successful, with charitable profits rebounding significantly: $5.5 million in 2021, $7.5 million in both 2022 and 2023, and $5 million in 2024. Since 1968, the event has raised an astounding $190 million for the Salesmanship Club charity, making it the most financially successful charity event on the PGA Tour.

Adding another chapter to its history, this is the second year the tournament operates under the sponsorship of the CJ Group, a South Korean conglomerate. Having previously sponsored PGA Tour events in various locations, the CJ Group has signed a ten-year deal, signaling a long-term commitment to the Byron Nelson and the Dallas golf community.

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⛳️ Course Spotlight: TPC Craig Ranch

For the fifth consecutive year, The CJ Cup Byron Nelson calls TPC Craig Ranch home. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and opened in 2004, this McKinney, Texas course was built with the PGA Tour in mind, boasting a massive property capable of handling large crowds. Despite being relatively young, the course presents a mature look, with tree-lined fairways and the meandering Rowlett Creek adding challenge and character.

The greens are bentgrass, average-sized at 6,800 square feet, and considered fair with only slight undulation. Eighty-three bunkers are strategically placed throughout the layout. A key change occurred in 2023 when the 12th hole was converted from a par 5 to a par 4, shifting the course par from 72 to 71.

Stretching to 7,569 yards at par 71, TPC Craig Ranch has earned the moniker "Bomber's Delight." While length is certainly an advantage, hitting fairways and greens remains paramount. Last year, seven of the top six finishers ranked within the top 12 in Greens in Regulation (GIR). Scrambling is also crucial, with the field successfully getting up and down 65.36% of the time on missed greens last year.

The course is known for yielding low scores. In 2024, it played to a 68.50 average, ranking as the 43rd hardest course on Tour (meaning it was one of the easier ones). Birdies are plentiful; 1,980 were made last year, a total surpassed by only two other courses on the PGA Tour schedule (TPC Deere Run and Keene Trace). Thirteen of the 18 holes played under par. This emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on scoring opportunities and excelling in Par Breakers stats.

Weiskopf's design incorporates a risk-reward element. All three par 5s are reachable in two, offering eagle opportunities (they played to a 4.45 average last year). Past champions like Taylor Pendrith (-11 on par 5s in 2024) and K.H. Lee (-16 in 2022, -11 in 2021) have feasted on these holes. Additionally, several par 4s (#3, #6, #14) present birdie chances, with #6 and #14 potentially being drivable depending on tee placement, though water on #14 adds significant risk.

A notable feature added in recent years is the "Ranch 17," a stadium-style atmosphere surrounding the par-3 17th hole, reminiscent of TPC Scottsdale's famous 16th, designed to create buzz and excitement for the 6,000 spectators it can hold.

 Key Stats for Success at TPC Craig Ranch

Based on the performance data from previous years at TPC Craig Ranch and the stats of players in the field for 2025, a few key areas stand out for success at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

As mentioned, TPC Craig Ranch is a course where players can go low. Last year, it ranked as one of the easiest courses on Tour relative to par, with winner Taylor Pendrith reaching 23-under. Birdie-making is paramount. The course surrendered nearly 2,000 birdies in 2024, and 13 of the 18 holes played under par. We’ve highlighted 4 critical key areas for success:

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: This comprehensive stat measures a player's performance relative to the field from tee shots, approach shots, and around the green. On a course like TPC Craig Ranch, where hitting fairways and greens is important despite its length, strong performance across all non-putting aspects is vital for setting up scoring chances.

• Greens in Regulation (GIR): As noted previously, TPC Craig Ranch yields numerous birdies. Hitting greens consistently is fundamental to giving oneself enough opportunities to convert those birdies. Players with high GIR percentages are more likely to keep pace in a low-scoring affair.

• Strokes Gained: Putting: With numerous birdie opportunities expected, capitalizing on the greens is essential. Players who gain strokes on the field with their putting, especially on the bentgrass greens of TPC Craig Ranch, will be able to separate themselves. A hot putter can make a significant difference when scores are low.

• Par Breakers: This stat directly measures a player's ability to make birdies and eagles. Given that TPC Craig Ranch surrendered nearly 2,000 birdies last year and 13 holes played under par, excelling in Par Breakers is arguably one of the most direct indicators of potential success this week. Players who frequently score under par are tailor-made for this type of tournament.

In summary, look for players who excel in SG:Tee to Green, GIR, SG:Putting, and Par Breakers when making your picks this week.

Who to watch for at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

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