- GolfStats Insider
- Posts
- Sony Open in Hawaii Preview and Picks
Sony Open in Hawaii Preview and Picks
Your Weekly Guide to PGA Tour Insights, Stats, and Picks
⛳ Welcome to This Week’s GolfStats Insider
Happy New Year and welcome back to GolfStats Insider! After a couple months off, the PGA Tour is back in action, and we're kicking off 2026 in Hawaii. This newsletter is free, but if you want more detailed golf stats, consider a GolfStats subscription. It offers detailed performance charts, easy-to-sort history, and special formulas to help you make the best choices. If you want to improve your fantasy league or betting strategy, now's a great time to upgrade!
If this newsletter was forwarded to you, we would really appreciate you subscribing by clicking the button below. Please forward to a friend if you are already a subscriber.
🏆 Sony Open in Hawaii Field
This week's field includes 46 of the top 100 and 20 of the top 50 in the Official World Rankings. Notable names include Russell Henley (#5), J.J. Spaun (#6), Robert MacIntyre (#7), Ben Griffin (#8), Keegan Bradley (#14), Hideki Matsuyama (#16), and Collin Morikawa (#17). That's pretty much on par with last year, which saw 49 top-100 players and 22 in the top 50.
The field also features 12 of the Top 25 on the 2025 FedEx point standings, including Russell Henley (#2), Corey Conners (#4), Keegan Bradley (#7), and Chris Gotterup (#10). Six past champions are teeing it up: Nick Taylor (2025), Si Woo Kim (2023), Hideki Matsuyama (2022), Patton Kizzire (2018), Russell Henley (2013), and Zach Johnson (2009).
📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting
If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.
Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players at the Sony Open, helping you identify those who consistently contend.
Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.
Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.
⛳ A Different Start to 2026
This year's Sony Open marks a first—it's the lead-off tournament on the PGA Tour schedule. Since 1999, the Sony has always been slotted behind the Sentry Tournament of Champions, getting an added boost because most players at the Sentry made the short flight to Honolulu afterward. But due to drought and water problems in Maui, the PGA Tour decided in September not to play The Sentry this year. So for the first time, the Sony Open stands alone as the Hawaiian swing.
Speaking of changes, 2026 could be the last year we see a full 46-event schedule. Over the summer, the PGA Tour hired Brian Rolapp from the NFL to run the Tour, bringing a new attitude focused on maximizing the tour's biggest asset: its best players. Combined with a $3 billion deal with the Fenway Investment Group as a minority partner, big changes are coming.
The plan is to start the Tour just after the Super Bowl next year, which means the first four events on the current schedule will either shift dates or disappear. The Sony Open and Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines will likely survive since their sponsors are reportedly willing to move. The Sentry's situation is trickier—they love their Maui date and want to keep the signature status that attracts top players. Right now, everything is in flux, so making predictions about what the schedule will look like is premature. But change is definitely coming.
One Scoop Ahead
AG1 is a daily health drink that supports gut health, helps fill common nutrient gaps, and supports steady energy. One scoop each morning makes it easy to build a habit that actually lasts. Try AG1 today.
🔙 Looking Back at 2025
Scottie Scheffler had another dominant year, winning the PGA Championship and Open Championship. He now has a chance to complete the Grand Slam at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, where he turns 30 on Sunday. Since becoming a Tour member in 2020, Scheffler has won 19 times in 80 events—a 23.7% win rate that's remarkable by any standard.
Rory McIlroy finally captured the Masters in an epic battle, becoming the seventh player to complete the career Grand Slam. Tommy Fleetwood broke through with his first PGA Tour win at the Tour Championship. Ben Griffin had a breakout year with three victories.
On the disappointment side, Xander Schauffele had his worst season since 2017 due to rib issues, though he did win the Baycurrent Classic. Justin Thomas had back surgery and hopes to return by the Masters. Collin Morikawa continues to struggle with the putter despite being one of the best ball-strikers on Tour. Viktor Hovland showed improvement after his disastrous swing changes. Jordan Spieth made 15 of 17 cuts but had no top-tens as putting remains his Achilles heel. Tom Kim and Max Homa both struggled for the second straight year.
🏌️♂️ Course Information: Waialae Country Club
Waialae was designed by Seth Raynor and Charles Banks, opening in 1925. It's been through multiple renovations over the decades, with Rick Smith brought in during the late '90s to return the course closer to Raynor's original vision.
The course features average-sized greens at 7,500 square feet and 79 bunkers. Nine holes have water, though only three really come into play for the pros. One interesting quirk: four of the closing five holes (14, 15, 16 & 18) are sharp doglegs left, giving players who work the ball left-to-right an advantage.
Waialae has been the only home of the Sony Open since 1965—one of the longest venue relationships on Tour, behind only Augusta National (Masters since 1934), Pebble Beach (AT&T since 1947), and Colonial (Charles Schwab since 1948).
🔑 Key Stats for Success at Waialae
Wind is Waialae's only true defense. When it blows, scores stay reasonable. When it doesn't, things get low—just ask Justin Thomas, who shot 59 here in 2017. The forecast will be critical for setting expectations this week.
For players to succeed, look for those who can take advantage of the par-5s and convert birdie opportunities on the shorter par-4s. Solid approach play into those 7,500 square foot greens and quality putting on the grainy Bermuda surfaces will separate the contenders from the field.
💰️ Betting This Week
This is a tricky event to gauge since most of the marquee names haven't played since the Tour Championship. Take Russell Henley—this is exactly his type of course, and he's performed well here recently. But he hasn't teed it up since September at the Procore, so backing him requires a leap of faith about his current form.
The same rust factor applies across the board. Players like Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, and Keegan Bradley all took extended breaks after the fall events. How quickly they shake off the holiday cobwebs will be telling. Meanwhile, players who competed in the fall swing—like J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin, and Rico Hoey—come in with more recent competitive reps, which could be an advantage early in the week.
Course history matters at Waialae, and past champions Nick Taylor and Si Woo Kim know how to navigate this track. Matsuyama, who's always dangerous in events with Japanese connections, will have plenty of fan support this week. Keep an eye on the weather reports as the week progresses—wind conditions will tell us whether we're looking at a 20-under shootout or something more moderate.
