Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview and Picks

🏌️‍♂️ The Buzz

The next three weeks in golf lack major events, focusing instead on players securing their spots in the top 70 and retaining their PGA Tour cards for 2025. The Scottish Open and British Open are on the horizon, followed by the 3M Open, the Olympics, and the Wyndham Championship. After that, the season culminates with the three-week FedEx Cup playoffs.

Recent weeks have brought thrilling victories, with Scottie Scheffler winning both the Memorial and Travelers, and Bryson DeChambeau triumphing at the U.S. Open. DeChambeau's win rekindles hope for a possible compromise with LIV Golf. Scheffler has dominated 2024, but one wonders how players like DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Cam Smith, Tyrell Hatton, and Joquin Niemann might have changed the season's narrative.

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🤔 Thoughts on Scheffler’s Season

Last week, I advised against picking Scheffler at the Travelers, only for him to win the tournament. Previously, I had a similar misstep at the RBC Heritage. Conversely, I backed him at the U.S. Open, where he had his worst showing since 2022. Scheffler's 2024 season is astonishing, with six wins in 15 starts and nearly $28 million in earnings. His caddie, Ted Scott, has also had a lucrative year, earning around $3 million.

Scheffler's resilience is noteworthy. His wife gave birth to their first child last month, and he won two tournaments shortly thereafter. He expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. Open scheduling, suggesting the PGA Tour should avoid scheduling signature events like Wells Fargo and Memorial the week before majors. This intense schedule may have affected his performance at the U.S. Open. Scheffler's composed demeanor, reminiscent of legends like Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus, was evident even amidst chaos at the Travelers.

Scheffler is reconsidering his pre-major schedule, likely skipping the Scottish Open to prepare for the British Open. He hinted at this shift after the U.S. Open, emphasizing the need to avoid playing the week before challenging majors. Scottie remains my favorite for the British Open.

Imagine this mind-blowing scenario: If Scottie Scheffler chose to take a break from the PGA Tour or any other tours (don’t worry, he’s not), he could actually sit out until the 2025 Masters and still hold onto his #1 spot in the OWGR rankings! That’s right, a whopping 9 months without playing a single tournament, and he’d still be the top golfer in the world. How incredible is that? 🤯 

🌟 Players to Watch This Week

Tom Kim, playing his ninth consecutive week, mirrors Rickie Fowler’s situation last year before breaking his four-year drought. Kim’s game has been improving, and despite missing the cut last year, he was 7th in 2022. Fowler, who won in Detroit last year, has shown promise with a T-18th finish at the Heritage and T-20th at the Travelers.

J.J. Spaun, with consistent performances in the Rocket Mortgage, could excel this week despite a mixed season. Neal Shipley, making his professional debut after impressive amateur achievements, and 15-year-old Mile Russell, making his PGA Tour debut, are also players to watch.

Other contenders include Taylor Pendrith, who has a strong history in the Rocket Mortgage, and Akshay Bhatia, who has shown upward trends with recent performances. Taylor Moore, Chris Kirk, and Stephan Jaeger have also demonstrated potential in past tournaments. Lastly, Cameron Young, despite being winless in 98 PGA Tour starts, is a strong contender this week.

⛳ The Rocket Mortgage Classic

The Rocket Mortgage Classic, with its five-year history, has yet to see a dominant player. Detroit's journey to host a PGA Tour event involved significant efforts to modernize the Detroit Golf Club and secure sponsorship. Quicken Loans, wanting to move their sponsorship from Washington D.C. to Detroit, made this possible.

Detroit, recovering from financial struggles, embraced the event. Even during the pandemic in 2020, the Rocket Mortgage Classic was a success, raising over $2.7 million for local charities despite the absence of fans. This underscores the event's potential for long-term sustainability and its positive impact on the community.

🏌️‍♂️ Course Overview: Detroit Golf Club

• Location: Detroit, Michigan
• Yardage: 7,370 yards
• Par: 72

Founded in 1899, the Detroit Golf Club boasts two 18-hole courses designed by Donald Ross, a famed golf course architect. The courses opened in 1916, and the club’s historic clubhouse, designed by Albert Kahn, opened in 1918. Over the years, the club has hosted many notable figures and has undergone several renovations to maintain its competitive edge, especially for hosting PGA Tour events like the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

🌳 Course Characteristics

The course is known for its tree-lined fairways and small, undulating greens:

• Greens: Average 5,500 square feet, protected by 87 bunkers.
• Fairways: Generally generous, making it forgiving off the tee.
• Rough: Lush and challenging due to recent rains, making recovery shots tougher.
• Holes: Primarily from the North Course, with one hole from the South Course, creating a composite layout.

🎯 Key Statistics for Success

🔑 Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: This stat is critical at the Detroit Golf Club, emphasizing the importance of both distance and accuracy off the tee and the ability to hit greens in regulation. The course’s tree-lined fairways and undulating greens demand precision. Last year’s winner, Rickie Fowler, demonstrated this by ranking T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 61 out of 72 greens, and finishing 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Previous winners like Tony Finau, Cam Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau also excelled in this category, consistently hitting a high percentage of greens and fairways.

🔑 Scrambling: Given the small and raised greens of the Detroit Golf Club, scrambling becomes vital. Players must be adept at getting up and down when they miss greens to maintain their score. The course ranked T-41st in scrambling last year, emphasizing the difficulty of recovering from missed greens. Rickie Fowler ranked 71st in scrambling, getting up and down 6 out of 11 times, highlighting the challenge even for the winner. Previous champions like Tony Finau and Cam Davis showed exceptional scrambling abilities, which were crucial to their victories.

🔑 Strokes Gained Putting: Success on the greens is paramount at the Detroit Golf Club. The course’s undulating and tiered greens test even the best putters. Last year, the course ranked 38th in Putting Average, with Rickie Fowler ranking 5th in this category, gaining 1.130 strokes per round. Tony Finau, Cam Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau also performed well in Strokes Gained Putting in their winning years, indicating that putting proficiency is a significant factor for success.

🔑 Par Breakers: Making birdies and eagles is essential at the Detroit Golf Club, where the scoring is generally low. Last year, the course saw 2,066 birdies and 58 eagles, with Rickie Fowler leading the field in Par Breakers. The ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and make the most of the par 5s and reachable par 4s can make the difference between winning and merely contending. Historical data shows that previous winners like Tony Finau and Bryson DeChambeau consistently ranked high in Par Breakers, underscoring the importance of aggressive and successful scoring.

📜 Historical Performance

The Detroit Golf Club, hosting the Rocket Mortgage Classic for the fifth year, has established itself as a relatively easy course by PGA Tour standards. The scoring averages over the past years have consistently been below par, with last year’s average being 69.92, making it the 49th hardest course on tour. The course’s setup, with its lush conditions and minimal wind, often leads to low scores. Players familiar with the course, like past winners Nate Lashley, Bryson DeChambeau, and Rickie Fowler, have shown that mastering the course’s specific challenges—particularly its greens and fairways—is key to success.

The historical data also reveals that the course’s relatively straightforward layout can be overpowered by long hitters. Bryson DeChambeau’s 2020 victory, where he dominated the course with his length, is a prime example. However, precision and strategic play are equally important, as evidenced by Tony Finau’s win in 2022, where he excelled in both hitting greens and scrambling.

Overall, the Detroit Golf Club’s blend of traditional design and modern updates provides a balanced test that rewards a combination of power, accuracy, and short game prowess. The course’s historical performance data underscores the importance of adapting to its specific challenges to secure a win.

Who to watch for at the Rocket Mortgage Classic

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