RBC Heritage Preview and Picks

Coming off one of the best, if not THE best, weeks in golf, we have quite a field for the RBC Heritage in Hilton Head, SC. Of the field of 69, 62 players are in the top 100 and 43 in the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings.

The field includes 3 past champions: Matt Fitzpatrick (2023), Jordan Spieth (2022), and Webb Simpson (2020).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the RBC Heritage field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in GolfStats that gives us the best average performances at the RBC Heritage in the last five years, or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the RBC Heritage.

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⛳️. So, what did you all think of the Masters?

I have to say it’s nice to see Scottie Scheffler win his second Masters. He is the best golfer right now and is now reaching Tiger Woods status. Like Woods, Scheffler seems to always come home with the goods, and he now has that unbeatable game that scares people into doing the right (wrong?) thing. Just look at the final round on Sunday. While Scheffler played holes nine through 15 in 3 under, Collin Morikawa was two over, Ludvig Aberg was one under, and Max Homa was one over. Others made mistakes as Scheffler played perfectly and didn’t come close to making an error. Sure, Scheffler’s 68 looks boring, but only one player shot better (Tom Kim shot 66). But now he has a milestone in the next few weeks - Scheffler and his wife Meredith will have their first child, and we will see how much that will change Scottie.

Look at what happened to Jordan Spieth. When he came out on tour in 2013, we all thought he was the second coming of Tiger Woods. He won the John Deere in his first season and then, in 2015, won two majors, the Masters and the U.S. Open. He won his third major at the 2017 British Open for his 11th victory. In November 2018, he got married and had a son in 2021 and a daughter in 2023. Since getting married in 2018 and in the six years since he has won just twice, his game is no longer the fearful game it was in September of 2015 when he won the Tour Championship.

So we have to wonder if Scottie will suffer the same faith. The big difference is that Scottie married his high school sweetheart in 2020, and all nine of his PGA Tour victories have come since. Scottie’s wife, Meredith, has been an important element in Scheffler’s career, so we will see if having children won’t interfere with his future.

Looking at Tiger Woods getting married in 2004, it didn’t hurt his career. He won 40 of his 82 titles and eight majors before his October 2004 marriage. After that, and before he got caught for his infidelities in 2009, he won 31 times and six majors while married. If anything, injuries played more of a role in Tiger’s downfall. We will have to wait and see what the next decade will bring with Scottie Scheffler. Will winning still be more critical for him in the coming years, or will he realize that he enjoys family life more. Dustin Johnson is one person we see life after golf being more important. Since joining LIV Golf in 2022, Johnson has had more family time and vacations, and we can see he enjoys that over winning. So anything can happen.

💡 What we learned at the Masters

How good is Scottie Scheffler, and how dominant is he? Since the start of the 2022 season, Scheffler has been the most dominant player in the last 60 years of golf. In 57 starts, he has won nine times, been runner-up seven times, and third seven times. So, of his 57 starts, he has been in the top three 40.3% of the time. Even more astonishing, he has been in the top ten 36 times or 63.2% of the time. Scottie has finished in the top 25 48 times or 84.2% of the time, so a bet on Scottie is as close to a sure thing as anything since Tiger’s prime. So, as we get deeper into the golf season, we have to expect even more incredible things out of Scottie if he can juggle the rigors of professional golf with having that first child. I believe that Scottie will be as fantastic in the coming months and continue producing more records and achievements.

On the other end of the spectrum

How about the fall of Jon Rahm? After a brilliant 2023 in which he won four times, including at the Masters, Rahm is no longer the talk of golf. He was offered a large sum to join LIV golf; sources say it was $400 million. Rumors have gone around that he has told several players the money was too good to pass up and that he is on a one-year sabbatical from the PGA Tour with the uncertain future of LIV golf. He is deemed a savvy man in many circles for taking such a large amount of upfront money, but his game has been terrible. In five starts, his best finish was 3rd at Mayakoba, and since then, he hasn’t played a role in the final round. Despite his poor play, he has won $3.8 million in individual money, and his team, Legion XIII, has won $6 million.

Still, we can see that money will not make Rahm happy. He had a miserable week in the Masters, starting with ditching the Golf Writers of America, which was awarding Rahm Player of the Year honors at their annual dinner Wednesday night in Augusta. Protocol in the past is that the player shows up and immediately gets his award and then leaves, as one person said they don’t even have to turn off the engine on their cars. In all the dinners I have attended (about 15 in the last 20 years), I am trying to remember one person, including Tiger, not showing up. I know some LPGA winners (like Lilia Vu this year) couldn’t make it and did a thank you video. Rahm refused to do that and stiffed the GWAA.

Rahm also said that he felt uncomfortable with several players, pointing out that his relationship with Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa seemed to have changed. So, instead of enjoying the week, it was very uncomfortable for Rahm, who didn’t play well. His main problem is that he took 130 putts for the week, an unbelievable number when you consider in the 44 years that Augusta National has kept stats, only 22 players out of 2,271 that have played 72 holes have more than 130 putts. Even worse, Rahm had eight three putts for the week. So, it was a very uncomfortable week for him. It will be interesting to see if things get better or worse for Rahm in the remaining three majors. But in the few holes that I watched Rahm play, many of those “patrons” following Rahm didn’t have many good things to say about him and thought he was just greedy for what he had done. So we will see, Rahm is richer than any other sports figure. We are still determining the actual figures of Rahm’s contract, but it’s safe to say he will make $400 million. As for the length of the agreement, I have been told that it’s for one year, with LIV having an option for two more years. As for Shohei Ohtani’s contract, which is one of the most significant contracts in sports, he got $700 million for ten years, so yes, it’s safe to say that Rahm got the wealthiest sports contract of anyone.

🏌️ The good, bad, and the ugly from the Masters

Talking about LIV players, of the 13 playing in the Masters, only two broke par, while Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Smith were two under par. Tyrrell Hatton shot even par to finish T-9th, while Patrick Reed was one over and finished T-12th.  Eight players made the cut; Brooks Koepka, who was runner-up last year, was T-45th and tied with Jon Rahm. Phil Mickelson, runner-up last year, finished T-43rd, and Joaquin Niemann, the best player on LIV in 2024, finished T-22nd.  Sergio Garcia, who has lost two playoffs in the five LIV events, shot 79 to miss the cut. Other LIV players who went home on Friday were Bubba Watson, Charl Schwartzel, and Dustin Johnson, who shot 78-79 and were only the best three players. One of them was Adrian Meronk, who shot 78-80 and beat Emiliano Grillo for worst score by a shot.

If you weren’t a Ludvig Aberg fan, you must be now. Aberg joined ten other players (Craig Wood in 1934, Ralph Guldahl in 1937, Lloyd Mangrum in 1940, Tony Lema in 1963, Dan Pohl in 1982, Jason Day in 2011, Jonas Blixt in 2014, Jordan Spieth in 2014, SungJae Im in 2020, and Will Zalatoris in 2021). There are no two ways about it: Aberg is for real, and we expect him to win again very soon.

We saw in the fall that Collin Morikawa was making changes in his coaching staff and was starting to putt better, winning the Zozo Championship in October. But Morikawa was struggling again in the west coast swing, missing the Farmers and Palmer cut. But he found a new putter after the first round and putted well, finishing T-3rd.  I have to think that he is ready to play well in the coming months; I like the courses in the majors for him and think he will contend at Pinehurst. Look for Morikawa to get back into the winner’s circle in 2024.

The same is true for Max Homa. He usually plays well on the West Coast, but this year, in five starts, his best finish was T-13th at the Farmers. Homa played well at the Palmer and finished T-8th, but he had his best finish in a major and his second straight top ten after a T-10th at the British Open. So, in 18 majors, he has two top-ten finishes, and we have to think he will continue his excellent play.

Xander Schauffele continues to disappoint us in significant events. He finished 8th and in 27 career majors now has eight top-six finishes, but still, his best finish is T-2nd in the 2018 British Open. The good news is that it was Schauffele’s first top-nine finish since the 2021 U.S. Open. Still, people ask me if Schauffele could ever win a major. Xander reminds me a lot of Jason Day, a lot of talent but short on playing consistently. Do I think he will ever win a major? Since he plays well enough, he could back up into winning a major on the last day. We will see, but I am always suspicious of Schauffele in the majors.

Another player who doesn’t strive in majors is Patrick Cantlay, who finished T-22nd. I have no idea why, but in 28 majors, he has only finished in the top five once, finishing T-3rd in the 2019 PGA Championship. Cantlay is one of the better ball strikers on tour, and it’s more mental than physical. I have and will, in the future, avoid betting on Cantlay in the majors.

Boy, talk about being in a funk; Justin Thomas is still in a funk. We knew he wasn’t happy to fire one of the better caddies on tour when “Bones” got his walking papers two weeks ago. Thomas shot an opening round 72, and was even par after the 14th hole on Friday. But the shot went too far on the 15th hole in laying up, and he hit it into the water. From then on, it was disaster after disaster as he made the trip on 15 and 16, a bogey on 17, and another double on 18 to miss the cut by a shot. It’s hard to believe that since winning the 2022 PGA Championship, his best finish was T-37th in the 2022 U.S. Open. He has now missed four of five major cuts and is totally lost and out of control. It’s best not to place anything on him for the foreseeable future.

Another player in a terrible funk is Viktor Hovland, who shot a first-round 71 but shot 81 in the second round to miss another cut. We discussed this before, but after a great 2023, he decided to change his swing and is now totally lost. He showed at the Masters that he was not close and decided not to play at Hilton Head. This is more than a simple fix; I feel it will be a while for him to play better.

Jordan Spieth missed the cut again in what used to be his favorite tournament. But he has missed the cut in two of his last three Masters starts. Spieth shot 79-74, and I think that Spieth’s wrist, which has bothered him for close to a year, is the culprit. Spieth has missed three cuts in his last four starts, but in that streak, he was T-10th at the Valero Texas Open. I wonder if he will play better this week at the Heritage; in seven starts, he has never missed the cut, won it in 2022, and lost a playoff last year. He will play better this week.

📖 Things you need to know about the RBC Heritage

• This will be the 56th edition of the Heritage, which is now well-established thanks to the sponsorship deal with RBC nine years ago. It was a long haul with many anxious moments and rumors of its demise, but the tournament is now healthy again.
  

• Harbour Town has been the site of the tournament every year.   In 1989, the Tour Championship was held at Hilton Head.
  

• The first Heritage Classic was played to great fanfare in 1969, even though it was a “turkey” of an event. Initially, it would be a regular tournament on Hilton Head Island, giving away $45,000. However, Charles Price, founding editor of Golf Magazine, talked to a few people, including Charles Fraser, who owned the new course Harbour Town, and suggested that he should apply for PGA Tour sanction instead of a small tournament. They scrambled around and raised the purse to $100,000, then got a date for the tournament on Thanksgiving weekend. Jack Nicklaus, who helped Pete Dye design the course, played and brought some friends, including Arnold Palmer, who went out and won the first Heritage Classic. Thanks to Palmer winning, they say it put the tournament on the map and helped create a beautiful tradition for a championship after its first year.
  

• The Heritage Classic was played over Thanksgiving weekend in its first four years. It was moved in 1974 to September and then the next year to March. Between 1983 and 2019, it’s been played the week after the Masters, except for 2012, when it was two weeks after the Masters. Because of COVID-19, it was played in June, but for all the years after, it’s returned to its usual place after the Masters.
  

• This year, it’s a designated event for a second year in a row, meaning the purse went from $8 million to $20 million in 2023 and $20 million this year, a drastic climb. Many will question if it’s fair to ask players to attend a big event the week before or after a major. The WGC-Bridgestone was always played before the PGA Championship and worked, but times are changing, and some may not want to play before or after a major. Still, they have a good field and don’t see any players not showing up.

🏆️ So, what will it take to win this week?

Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America. It’s a different experience in which ball placement is utmost to overpowering. Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue, so look for a precision player to win. Looking at all drives in 2023, the course averaged 278.6 yards, meaning it was the 2nd shortest of all the courses on Tour (the shortest is Pebble Beach). Since it’s so low (The highest on Tour last year was Plantation Course at Kapalua, 307.3 yards), players not only throttle it down on many holes, they lay up with three woods or long irons.

So, our first important stat is driving accuracy. You have to drive it well and straight at Harbour Town. Driving is essential when looking at Harbour Town’s stats from last year. The course ranked 2nd on the PGA Tour in driving distance (all holes) and 45th in driving accuracy (out of 58 courses). Winner Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 12th in driving distance (all holes) and T-56th (34 of 54) in accuracy.

The next important category is greens in regulation. What makes Harbour Town tough is the greens. At 4,500 square feet, they are the smallest greens on the PGA Tour to hit, so it makes sense that scramblers do well since it’s tough to hit the greens.

Our third category is scrambling, and you can see why. Since the course is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, Harbour Town ranked 51st in scrambling out of 58 courses. It shows that players can get it up and down, so keeping up with the field to scramble is essential. Last year’s winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, was ranked t-4th, getting it up and down in 20 of the 24 greens he missed.

Last, we pick a stat rarely used: Strokes Gained Putting. That’s because at Hilton Head, putting well doesn’t mean much because of the small size of the greens, but you still have to make those nasty 4 to 8-footers. The winners of the Heritage are notoriously good putters. Last year, Harbour Town ranked 53rd in Putting average, 53rd in One-Putt Percentage, 58th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 33rd in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.55% of the putts in this range were made.
Last year’s winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, ranked 20th in Putting average, T-8th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 5th in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 66 out of 70 putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 20th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 2.732 shots for the week.

As you can see, the secret for Harbour Town is not brute force but finesse and total control over your game. When you look at the champions at this course, remember that most of them are ranked at the bottom of driving distance and high in driving accuracy. Think of it: Most of the champions do not hit it long, something you won’t see at any other event on the PGA Tour. So, the thought for the week is to hit it short and straight.

Driving Accuracy: Percentage of fairways hit, so keeping it in the fairway is very important.

Greens in Regulation: This stat is a great barometer of how well players manage their games around Harbour Town. Every year, the players who hit lots of greens do well.

Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes? Players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

Strokes Gained Putting: Who gains the most strokes with their putter? Since Harbour Town’s greens are so small, you will see fewer putts as you won’t have as many three-putts, but you still need to make those putts under ten feet.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2024 with 66 of the 69 players having stats:

👀  Who to watch for at the RBC Heritage

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