PGA Championship Preview and Picks

⛳ Welcome to This Week’s GolfStats Insider

We’re back with another edition of GolfStats Insider (majors addition), your go-to source for expert analysis, historical insights, and data-driven picks for the upcoming PGA Tour event. While this newsletter is free, a GolfStats subscription takes your golf analytics to another level—providing in-depth performance charts, sortable history, and proprietary formulas to help you make the best picks. If you're looking for an edge in your fantasy league or betting strategy, now’s the time to upgrade!

If this newsletter was forwarded to you, we would really appreciate you subscribing by clicking the button below. Please forward to a friend if you are already a subscriber.

🏆 This Week’s Field

The upcoming tournament at Quail Hollow boasts an exceptionally strong field, arguably the best seen in golf since the previous year. This week, an impressive 99 out of the top 100 players in the Official World Rankings are set to compete, a testament to the event's prestige. This high level of participation continues a trend, with 2023 seeing 99 of the top 100, and 2022 having 96 of the top 100 at Southern Hills. The only top-100 ranked player absent this week is #24 Billy Horschel, who is recovering from hip surgery.

Delving deeper, 110 of the top 117 players globally will be teeing off. The field's strength is further underscored by the inclusion of all top 25 players from the current 2025 FedEx Cup point standings, extending to include 58 of the top players in that ranking. The highest-ranked player in the FedEx Cup standings not participating is #59 Alex Smalley. Similarly, the tournament will feature 25 of the top 25 players on this year’s PGA Tour money list, highlighting the concentration of elite talent.

A significant draw for spectators and a point of interest for analysts is the presence of 13 past champions. This illustrious group includes Xander Schauffele (2024), Brooks Koepka (2019, ’18 & 2023), Justin Thomas (2022 & ’17), Phil Mickelson (2022, ’05), Collin Morikawa (2020), Jimmy Walker (2016), Jason Day (2015), Rory McIlroy (2014 & ’12), Jason Dufner (2013), Keegan Bradley (2011), Martin Kaymer (2010), Padraig Harrington (2008), and Shaun Micheel (2003).

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

• Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players at the PGA Championship, helping you identify those who consistently contend.

• An added feature for this week is a performance chart for those that played at Quail Hollow since 2017.

• Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

• Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at the PGA Championship.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

Fact-based news without bias awaits. Make 1440 your choice today.

Overwhelmed by biased news? Cut through the clutter and get straight facts with your daily 1440 digest. From politics to sports, join millions who start their day informed.

Sign up now!

🏌️‍♂️ In-Depth Look at Contenders: Performance, Top Picks, and Important Factors

The PGA Championship is shaping up to be an exciting event for golf enthusiasts and bettors alike, with many of the world's top players hitting their stride at the perfect moment. World #1 Scottie Scheffler arrives fresh off a victory in Dallas two weeks ago, demonstrating his continued dominance. Rory McIlroy, a perennial favorite, has already had a stellar year, highlighted by his Masters win, and he secured a T-7th finish at last week's Truist. Xander Schauffele, ranked #3, is showing strong signs of returning to form after a rib injury, evidenced by a T-8th at the Masters and a T-11th at the Truist, which included an impressive final round 66. Collin Morikawa (#4), however, appears to be in a bit of a slump, primarily struggling with his putter; despite a 2nd place at the Arnold Palmer and a T-10th at The Players, his more recent finishes were a T-14th at the Masters and T-17th at Truist. Justin Thomas (#5) is certainly a player to keep an eye on, having won the Heritage and finishing T-2nd at the Truist. Ludvig Aberg (#6) has shown flashes of brilliance with a win at the Genesis and a 7th place finish at the Masters, but his recent form has been less consistent with a T-54th at Heritage and a T-69th at Truist.

Beyond the very top of the rankings, Sepp Straka is a name generating significant attention after his win at last week's Truist, making him the second multiple winner on the PGA Tour this year, having also claimed the American Express title. Shane Lowry (#10) presents a compelling narrative; despite playing some of the best golf of his career, he remains winless since the 2019 British Open. His recent runner-up finish to McIlroy at Pebble Beach and a T-2nd at last week's Truist suggest a victory could be imminent if he can deliver clutch shots down the stretch. Two other players quietly rounding into form are #14 Patrick Cantlay, who posted a T-4th at Truist, and #15 Bryson DeChambeau, who, aside from McIlroy, could be considered the hottest player in golf. DeChambeau has experienced some final-round difficulties, notably at the Masters where he finished T-5th, and had a mixed performance in LIV Golf Mexico, but he did secure a win at LIV Golf Korea. When pressed to name three favorites for the championship, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, and Scottie Scheffler stand out.

A critical factor for success at Quail Hollow this week will undoubtedly be length off the tee. The course is already a formidable 7,626 yards, and with over three inches of recent rainfall, it will play even longer. This significantly disadvantages shorter hitters. Among those who don't possess elite distance, Patrick Reed is a notable exception due to his excellent track record at Quail Hollow, which includes a T-2nd finish at the 2017 PGA Championship held here. Conversely, Jordan Spieth is a player who may struggle this week. Similar to the pressure Phil Mickelson faces at the U.S. Open or that Rory McIlroy experienced before his Masters triumph, the PGA Championship seems to be a challenging event for Spieth. His record at Quail Hollow is notably poor, with his best finish being a T-28th at the 2017 PGA Championship. The course layout doesn't appear to suit his game, and his current form is not at its peak, suggesting potential disappointment for Spieth and his supporters.

An interesting point of discussion is Scottie Scheffler's lack of individual event experience at Quail Hollow. While he did participate in the 2022 Presidents Cup here (losing three of four matches and halving one), the reason for his absence from stroke-play events at this venue is primarily scheduling. As a Dallas native, Scheffler prioritizes playing in the Byron Nelson and at Colonial. With the PGA Championship and the Truist often falling between these Texas events, he typically opts to take a week off, which has historically been the Truist. His decision not to play last week was a strategic scheduling choice to avoid playing five consecutive weeks, especially with the Memorial, the Canadian Open, and the U.S. Open on the horizon. Therefore, his Presidents Cup results should likely be disregarded; Quail Hollow's layout is well-suited to his game, and he is a strong contender to win this week.

Looking further down the field for potential surprise performers, driving distance will be a key indicator. Players like Michael Thorbjornsen, Rasmus Hojgaard, or Alejandro Tosti could leverage their length to make a run. Keith Mitchell, who played well for two rounds at the Truist, is another player to watch, especially given his strong past performances at Quail Hollow, including a T-8th in 2019 and a T-3rd in 2021. Finally, one cannot overlook Wyndham Clark, who triumphed at Quail Hollow in 2023 and will be looking to replicate that success.

⛳️ The Course: Quail Hollow

This is the 107th edition of this event, one of golf’s four major championships. It’s the third oldest behind the British Open and U.S. Open. The plans for the PGA Championship were created on January 16, 1916, at a meeting of a group of PGA Tour professionals, including Walter Hagen. Their vision was to create a national championship that would rival the U.S. Open in terms of importance. Their dream came to reality just months later as the first PGA Championship Match Play event was played at Siwanoy Country Club in Bronxville, NY, that year. Englishman Jim Barnes took home the inaugural crown.

After the inaugural tournament, the event took a two-year break from 1917 to 1918 because of World War I. The break-in action didn’t faze Jim Barnes, as he went on to win the PGA Championship in its return to the Tour in 1919. Since the two-year hiatus, The PGA Championship has only seen one other break in 1943 due to World War II. The most significant change in the event’s history occurred in 1958 when the format changed from Match Play to 72-hole stroke play.

The famed Wanamaker trophy, awarded to the winner of the PGA Championship, can trace its roots back to the beginning of golf equipment. In the early part of the 20th Century, A.G. Spalding & Bros. was the predominant maker of golf equipment; however, Rodman Wanamaker sought to create a company that would rival Spalding in the golf industry. Though his plan ultimately failed, his dream will always be remembered, as he was the one who first sponsored the PGA Championship and the trophy which today bears his name.

Course information:
Location: Quail Hollow Golf Club Charlotte, N.C.
Yardage: 7,626 yards
Par: 35-36–71

Quail Hollow features a course rating of 75.0 and a slope rating from the back tees of 140. The tees, fairway, and rough are 419 Bermuda Grass with Perennial Ryegrass. The greens were changed after the 2023 Truist and are Champion Ultradwarf Bermudagrass.

One of the big secrets to Quail Hollow is that the players love the course. Located in Charlotte, North Carolina, it’s considered one of the most exclusive clubs in America and, in the players’ eyes, one of the best challenges. For years, it was considered a “U.S. Open-type” venue, and the PGA of America was smart enough to hold its major on it.

Quail Hollow Club is a private member club founded by James J. Harris on April 13, 1959. The club hosted the Kemper Open from 1969 through 1979, the PaineWebber World Seniors Invitational from 1983 through 1989, and the Wells Fargo Championship since it debuted in 2003.

The property was initially a dairy farm owned by former North Carolina Governor Cameron Morrison. In the late 1950s, a group of affluent men decided to create a private club patterned after the Peachtree Golf Club in Atlanta. George Cobb was recruited to design the course, and it opened in June 1961. To attract members, one of the founding members enlisted the help of a close friend, Arnold Palmer. Palmer liked the course so much that he was instrumental in bringing the Kemper Open to Quail Hollow. The event was played there from 1969-79, then abruptly moved to Washington, D.C. in 1980.

Palmer didn’t forget Quail Hollow. When he began playing the Champions Tour in 1980, he worked to bring the Paine Webber Invitational to Quail Hollow, where it was played between 1983-88. Palmer tinkered with the course in the late ’80s, but a significant renovation was done by Tom Fazio in 1997.

But at the end of 2016, the course underwent many changes to prepare for the 2017 PGA Championship, Truist, and any other events that will be played on the course in the future. Along with redoing all of the greens, thousands of trees were removed, a bit like Oakmont Country Club. This reshaped the way the course plays and made the elements of wind more effective.

They also made significant changes in four holes. The first and second holes were condensed into a single hole, a 540-yard par 4. The fifth hole was changed from a par 5 to a par 4. A new second hole was built, a par 3. The 11th was given extra bunkering. The average green size is 6,500, which is about average, and the course is dotted with 62 bunkers. Water comes into play on six holes (7, 14, 15, 16, 17, and 18). Along with the changing of the greens, course architect Tom Fazio made some changes four years ago to the 8th hole, making it play straight, and now it is potentially a drivable par 4. He also made a significant change to 16, adding 18 yards to the hole and bringing the lake into play, making it much tougher. He also changed 17, moving the tee to the right and adding 20 yards to the hole. The changes were well received, even the change from a par 72 to 71.

📊 Key Stats for Success at Quail Hollow

Quail Hollow, a course renowned for its demanding layout and history of crowning elite ball-strikers, presents a stern test for this year's PGA Championship. Recent rains and increased course length (now 7,626 yards, par 71) will place an even greater premium on specific skills. While the course has seen its share of champions who dominate from tee to green, the softened conditions will further emphasize the importance of length. Success this week will hinge on a blend of powerful driving, precise iron play to navigate challenging approaches, and a deft touch around the greens, as missed greens are inevitable on a course of this caliber.

The 4 Key Stats This Week:

Driving Accuracy – While hitting fairways is always a goal (Quail Hollow ranked 27th in driving accuracy last year), the course's length and recent weather mean that power off the tee will be a significant advantage. As seen with past champions like Rory McIlroy, who ranked 1st in distance but 59th in accuracy during his win, a long ball can mitigate occasional misses, setting up better approach opportunities on this lengthy track.

Proximity to Hole – Simply hitting greens in regulation (Quail Hollow ranked 16th last year) isn't enough; getting the ball close to the pin is paramount. Last year, the course ranked 1st in proximity to the hole from the fairway, with the field averaging over 47 feet. Players who can consistently stick their approach shots will create more viable birdie chances and reduce pressure on their putting.

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – This comprehensive statistic captures a player's overall ball-striking prowess, combining performance off the tee (distance and accuracy) with the quality of approach shots and greens hit. Given Quail Hollow's demand for strong driving and precise iron play (ranking 4th in greens hit last year), excelling in this category is a strong indicator of potential success. McIlroy led this stat during his victory.

Scrambling – With the difficulty of Quail Hollow, players will inevitably miss greens. The ability to get up and down effectively is crucial. Last year, the course ranked 20th hardest in scrambling. A champion will need to display a sharp short game to save pars and maintain momentum, as demonstrated by McIlroy, who ranked 2nd in scrambling during his win.

Who to watch for at the PGA Championship

Subscribe to Premium to read the rest.