Open Championship Preview and Picks

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🏌️‍♂️ The Open Returns to Royal Troon

The Open Championship returns for its tenth edition at Royal Troon, a stunning course on Scotland’s west coast. While Monday and Tuesday saw perfect weather, a storm is forecast for Thursday, reminiscent of 2016 when similar conditions impacted play. In 2016, Henrik Stenson triumphed with a 20-under total, closely followed by Phil Mickelson at 17-under, while J.B. Holmes was third at 6-under. The weather played a significant role then, with late Thursday and early Friday starters having a distinct advantage. As we approach the first and second rounds, it’s worth considering the potential impact of weather on this year’s tournament.

⛳ Course and Strategy

Royal Troon is a formidable course where length and strength are crucial, but accuracy is paramount due to the high rough. Putting will be critical, as seven of the last eight winners at Troon have excelled on the greens. This week, the winner will likely follow this trend. However, we must look for players who combine excellent putting with accuracy off the tee. Notable mentions include Xander Schauffele, who ranks 10th in Strokes Gained Putting, 12th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, and 5th in Strokes Gained Approach the Green.

Longer shots to watch include Akshay Bhatia, defending champion Brian Harman, and last week’s Scottish Open runner-up, Adam Scott. Also in the mix are Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, and Ludvig Aberg, along with Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, and Davis Thompson.

📊 Contenders and Doubts

High-profile players like Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, and Jon Rahm have shown potential in previous Opens but must prove themselves this week. Scheffler, despite an incredible season, has yet to perform consistently on links courses. Bryson DeChambeau, in particular, has struggled, with only one top-10 finish in six Open starts. Other notable mentions include Tom Kim, who has been in good form with a T-2nd finish last year at Hoylake and recent strong performances, including a final round 64 at the Scottish Open. Robert MacIntyre’s recent victory at the Scottish Open makes him a local hero, but the pressure may affect his performance.

🏆 Championship Insights

The Open Championship has yet to see a repeat major winner since Jordan Spieth in 2017. The average age of the last nine champions is 32.5 years, with Henrik Stenson being the oldest at 40 and Arthur Havers the youngest at 23. Notable past champions include Bobby Locke, Arnold Palmer, and Tom Watson, indicating that age and experience are often crucial factors.

📜 Historical Background

The British Open’s origins date back to October 17, 1860, at Prestwick, six months before Abraham Lincoln’s inauguration. Eight professionals competed in the inaugural Open, with Willie Park Sr. winning the Challenge Belt. In 1873, Tom Kidd’s victory at St. Andrews marked the first time the Claret Jug was awarded. By 1892, the Open had adopted a 72-hole format, with a cut introduced in 1898 to manage the increasing number of competitors.

📺 Evolution of the Open

The Open went on hiatus from 1914 to 1920 due to World War I, resuming under the R&A’s management. Changes included extending the event to three days and charging admission. The longest gap between Opens occurred during World War II, with the tournament resuming in 1946. The BBC first televised the Open in 1955, and by 1966, the event spanned four days with 18 holes each day. ABC began live broadcasts in America in 1982. The current format, adopted in 1980, features 18 holes over four days, culminating on Sunday. A record attendance of over 208,000 spectators was set at St. Andrews in 1990. International qualifying was introduced in 2005, with various pathways for players to earn entry, including major wins, high world rankings, and top finishes in significant tournaments.

The 2024 Open Championship will be the 152nd installment of the tournament. This is the 10th time Troon has held the British Open, the first since 2016.

Course information:

• Royal Troon Golf Club

• Troon, Scotland

• 7,385 yards     Par 36-35–71

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🔑Keys to Winning the Open Championship

Royal Troon is a historic course with a rich legacy. The layout, mostly unchanged since the first Open Championship was held here in 1923, poses unique challenges. The course plays out to the south and returns north, with the wind typically blowing from the north. However, this year’s tournament will feature winds from the southwest, altering the usual strategy. Players must be under par by the 8th hole, as the back nine is notoriously difficult.

In 2016, the front nine played slightly over par, while the back nine averaged two over par. The course’s total length has been extended to 7,385 yards, making it 852 yards longer than in 1950. Despite this, the layout remains fundamentally the same, preserving its traditional test of golf.

🌦️Weather Conditions

Scotland’s weather will play a significant role this week. The course has been lush and green due to recent rain, making rough particularly challenging. While practice rounds were played in unusually good weather, the tournament days are expected to bring rain and high winds, with gusts up to 35 mph. This shift will demand adaptability from the players, as the conditions will be starkly different from their practice rounds.

🔑Strategy and Key Skills

1. Driving Accuracy and Distance

Despite the course’s length, accuracy off the tee is paramount. Royal Troon’s fairways are guarded by numerous bunkers, and the rough is thick and unforgiving due to the wet conditions. Players must avoid the 30 fairway bunkers and navigate the 34-yard-wide fairways carefully.

2. Iron Play and Approach Shots

Precision with approach shots is crucial. The greens are guarded by 51 bunkers, and their average size of 6,080 square feet requires accurate targeting. Players who consistently hit greens will have a significant advantage.

3. Bunker Play

The bunkers at Troon are particularly penal. Effective bunker play, especially the ability to get up and down, will be vital. Players must be adept at escaping these deep traps to save strokes.

4. Putting

The greens at Troon are relatively flat and slow, rolling at about 9 on the stimpmeter. Players must be proficient with long putts and make the most of their opportunities on the greens. This could be the deciding factor, as many past champions at Troon were exceptional putters.

5. Scrambling

Given the small greens, players will inevitably miss some. Effective scrambling and recovery shots will be necessary to maintain scores.

📈Historical Stats and Predictions

Given the historical data and current form of players, here are the critical stats to focus on:

1. Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: This measures the effectiveness of driving, considering both distance and accuracy.

2. Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: This captures the precision of approach shots to the green.

3. Strokes Gained Around the Green: This evaluates performance in scrambling and bunker play.

4. Strokes Gained Putting: This reflects the player’s proficiency on the greens.

Analyzing these metrics, 69 of the 158 players in this year’s field have relevant stats for 2024. This includes players from the PGA Tour, European Tour, and LIV Golf, providing a broad view of potential performance.

Here is a look at the top 10 using our proprietary GolfStats.com Golf IQ Composite Rankings.

To win at Royal Troon, players must excel in driving accuracy, approach shots, bunker play, putting, and scrambling. The unpredictable weather and challenging course layout will test every aspect of their game. History shows that both seasoned champions and surprise contenders have succeeded at Troon, making this year’s Open Championship a thrilling and unpredictable event.

Over the past 32 years, the British Open has seen winners like grinders Brian Harman, Cameron Smith, and Shane Lowry, as well as superstars Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth. Phil Mickelson also surprised with a win. Great tour players like Ernie Els and Justin Leonard capped their careers with victories. However, some winners like Ian Baker-Finch and Todd Hamilton faded from the spotlight after their triumphs.

The field is great, 69 of the top 80 in the world rankings. Every great player in the world is here and ready to go. Troon is soft and wet right now with a lot of heavy rough, it could play harder if the wind blows.

Enjoy the Open Championship!

👀 Who to Watch at the Open Championship

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