Saturday, July 25, 2026

GolfStats Insider Daily Briefing

Michael Kim's Friday 59 blew the 3M Open wide open, Herbert and DeChambeau go to the wire at LIV UK, and Jenny Shin is running away in Scotland.

Top 3 Stories

1. Michael Kim shoots 59, seizes the 3M Open

Michael Kim did something only 14 players had ever done on the PGA Tour, closing his second round with four straight birdies and draining a 24-foot putt on the 18th to sign for a 12-under 59, the 15th sub-60 round in Tour history. The bogey-free masterpiece carried him to 14 under and a three-shot lead over Ben Kohles, Emiliano Grillo and Chandler Phillips at TPC Twin Cities, and it buried the pre-tournament chalk: Scottie Scheffler made two loose swings, shot 70, and tumbled to seven back in a tie for 13th. Kim's only prior PGA Tour win came at the 2018 John Deere, so this is uncharted air for him. Source: Golf.com and CBS Sports.

Why it matters for subscribers: A three-shot lead sounds safe until you remember someone just shot 59 on this course. Twin Cities is a birdie sprint where the field catches up fast, and Kim has one career Tour win and no recent closing reps. Fade the short outright price and put your money in the chase-tier top-5 and top-10 markets, where Grillo, Phillips and Koivun offer real value.

2. Herbert and DeChambeau settle LIV UK on Sunday's clock

Lucas Herbert took a commanding lead into the final round at JCB Golf & Country Club and is protecting it at 7 under, but Bryson DeChambeau has planted himself two back at 5 under and refuses to go away, with Tyrrell Hatton lurking a shot further back at 4 under. Jon Rahm never got going this week and sits deep in the pack at 1 under (T31), which quietly reshuffles the season-long individual race behind the leaders. With LIV's 54-hole format, there is no cushion of a fourth day to fix a bad start, so every hole counts on the closing loop. Source: LIV Golf.

Why it matters for subscribers: Herbert is the play if you trust a front-runner in a no-cut shootout, but DeChambeau at two back is the leverage bet, both on the outright and in a head-to-head matchup against Herbert if your book is still pricing it. LIV finals compress fast, and a two-shot gap between two aggressive players is closer to a coin flip than the leaderboard suggests.

3. Jenny Shin runs away with the Women's Scottish Open

Jenny Shin backed up an opening 65 with a 5-under 67 to reach 11 under and open a five-shot lead at Dundonald Links, the largest 36-hole cushion of her career ("I have never had a five-shot lead before," she said). Germany's Esther Henseleit sits alone in second at 6 under. The story underneath is the wreckage among the favorites: Nelly Korda played the back nine in a mess of bogeys to sit 4 over, Charley Hull scrapped to a 71 just to make the cut at 5 over, and defending champion Lottie Woad ground out an even-par week that never got its putter going. Source: LPGA and Sky Sports.

Why it matters for subscribers: With the AIG Women's Open looming, this is a form-read week. Shin's ball-striking is peaking at exactly the wrong time for anyone holding Korda or Hull futures, and the runaway lead makes Shin a poor outright value now. The sharper angle is derivatives on the second tier and treating Korda's missed-putt week as a caution flag, not a buy-low, until she shows the flat stick has recovered.

Player Movement & Status

  • Scottie Scheffler shot 70 and fell seven back to a tie for 13th, the world No. 1 letting the 3M slip away with two bad swings in his 3M Open debut. Source: CBS Sports.
  • Emiliano Grillo climbed into a share of second at 11 under with a bogey-free 67, back in contention on a course that rewards his iron play. Source: PGA Tour.
  • Jackson Koivun sits 10 under (T5) and keeps contending as a rookie pro, four back and squarely in the mix in just his handful of starts since turning professional. Source: PGA Tour.
  • Cameron Percy extended his Senior Open lead to three at 9 under in brutal Gleneagles wind that gusted to 30 mph, while defending champ Padraig Harrington sputtered to 2 over and a tie for 36th. Source: PGA Tour Champions.
  • Nelly Korda (4 over) and Charley Hull (5 over) both struggled at the Women's Scottish, Hull surviving to the weekend on the number as their AIG Women's Open tune-up misfires. Source: Sky Sports.

This Week's Tournament Read

3M Open, TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, MN (par 71, 7,431 yards). Round 3 tees off Saturday afternoon with Kim and Kohles out last at 1:35 p.m. ET. The course is playing every bit as gettable as advertised, a soft, birdie-friendly track where a 59 was on the table and red numbers are the price of entry, so leads never feel truly safe here. Source: CBS Sports.

Trending up:

  • Michael Kim: riding a historic 59, three clear and in full control of his own tournament.
  • Emiliano Grillo: crisp ball-striking has him T2 and best-positioned of the chasers to apply pressure.
  • Jackson Koivun: the rookie pro at 10 under keeps proving the model love is real.

Trending down:

  • Scottie Scheffler: seven back in a birdie week is a tall order, even for him.
  • Ben Kohles: a Friday 69 turned a lead into a three-shot deficit as the field went low around him.

Golf Betting Odds, Tournament Watch

3M Open, pre-Round 3 (Saturday). Outright "to win" favorites, top 10 by shortest price:

  1. Michael Kim: +210
  2. Ben Kohles: +700
  3. Scottie Scheffler: +700
  4. Jackson Koivun: +850
  5. Emiliano Grillo: +950
  6. Chandler Phillips: +1800
  7. Brian Harman: +2200
  8. Zac Blair: +3000
  9. Billy Horschel: +3300
  10. Michael Brennan: +3300

Movement: Kim opened the week around +8000 and is now the +210 favorite after the 59. The eye-catcher is Scheffler at +700 from seven back, tied with Kohles who is actually four shots closer, a sign books are still pricing Scheffler's ceiling over the field's leaderboard reality.

Odds via DraftKings (PGA Tour live board) (current as of July 25; VegasInsider's board was still showing a stale pre-tournament price, prices vary by book).

These odds are a snapshot and will differ from the price you actually get at bet placement.

Live Tournament Pulse

The 3M board is all about one number: Kim's 59 opened a three-shot gap over a jammed group at 11 under (Kohles, Grillo, Phillips), with Koivun a shot further back at 10 under and Scheffler stuck at 7 under. Across the pond, LIV UK is a two-man final round with Herbert (7 under) trying to hold off a charging DeChambeau (5 under), while the Senior Open at Gleneagles has become a survival test in 30-mph gusts, where Percy's steady 68 to reach 9 under looked heroic on a day the field averaged nearly 74. Source: PGA Tour, LIV Golf and PGA Tour Champions.

Under the Radar

The 59 is a trap price, not a coronation. A leader who just shot the round of his life is the most tempting outright on the board and the easiest way to overpay. Kim has one PGA Tour win in his career and zero recent experience closing from in front, and TPC Twin Cities is precisely the venue where a three-shot lead is the thinnest kind. The Golf IQ play is to sell the +210 and buy the chase: Grillo and Phillips in top-5 markets, plus a small position on the field, are where the number and the course fit actually line up. Source: PGA Tour.

The rookie who keeps showing up. Jackson Koivun turned pro just weeks ago and is again inside the top five, at 10 under. When a young player contends this consistently this early, DFS ownership and matchup markets lag his true form for weeks, exactly the window where models find their edge. Fade nothing about this kid until the books catch up. Source: CBS Sports.

Saturdays are made for chasing something good, so pour a cold one, pick a leaderboard worth watching, and let the weekend earn its name.

GolfStats Insider Daily Briefing | GolfStats.com

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