Thursday, July 23, 2026
GolfStats Insider Daily Briefing
Scheffler debuts as a historic 3M favorite, Fox and Day withdraw, and the FedEx Cup bubble tightens with three events to go.
Top 3 Stories
1. Scheffler is a historic 3M favorite, but the number is drifting the wrong way
Scottie Scheffler makes his 3M Open debut as one of the shortest favorites this event has ever seen, sitting around +275 with no other player inside +2500. Here is the wrinkle sharp bettors are watching: the line has actually lengthened since Monday (roughly +240 to +275) even as Scheffler commands the lion's share of the money, about 44% of the handle at BetMGM. Books happily taking that much action while nudging the price out is a quiet signal, not a mistake. For context, no reigning world No. 1 has ever won a PGA Tour event in Minnesota. Source: CBS Sports, Covers.
2. The top of the field thins out: Fox and Day both withdraw
The 3M Open lost two recognizable names this week. Open champion Ryan Fox withdrew within hours of lifting the Claret Jug and headed home to Florida to celebrate, with Fabian Gomez taking his spot. More consequentially for the board, former PGA Championship winner Jason Day pulled out with the recurring back injury that also cut short his U.S. Open, opening a lane for the chase pack behind Scheffler. Source: CBS Sports, Golf Monthly.
3. The FedEx Cup bubble is the real drama in Blaine
The 3M Open is the first of just three regular-season events left before the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and the fight to crack the top 70 is what gives this week its edge. Jason Day's withdrawal is a cautionary tale: he sat 72nd in the standings and now has only two starts left to climb inside the number. Expect the bubble names in the field to play with visible urgency this week. Source: Golf.com, Golf Monthly.
Player Movement & Status
- Jason Day withdrew from the 3M Open with a recurring back injury, the same ailment that ended his U.S. Open; he entered the week 72nd in FedEx Cup points. Source: Golf Monthly.
- Ryan Fox withdrew after winning The Open, returning home to Florida to celebrate; Fabian Gomez replaced him. Source: CBS Sports.
- S.Y. Noh out, Ryan Brehm in as the field reshuffled ahead of Thursday. Source: Golf Monthly.
- Kurt Kitayama returns to defend, though he arrives cold after a T40 at Royal Birkdale last week. Source: Covers.
This Week's Tournament Read
3M Open, TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota. A par 71 stretching to 7,431 yards with water in play on 15 holes and guarding five greens, and all three par-5s beyond 590 yards. It reads as a birdie-fest (winners have gone -15 to -24 since 2019), but the water and length mean it is not a pure putting contest. Forecast is clear and hot, climbing toward 95 by Sunday with thunderstorms possible as the week closes. Source: Covers.
Trending up:
- Tom Kim: broke a three-year win drought at the Genesis Scottish Open and finished third at the U.S. Open, easily the best form in the chase tier.
- Lucas Glover: T3 at the John Deere and a proven July/August grinder, out early Thursday alongside Harman and Fisk.
- Ben James: a career-best T4 at Corales Puntacana and five straight cuts made, quietly building into a live number.
Trending down:
- Kurt Kitayama: defending champ, but a T40 at Birkdale and a short repeat price make him a fade at the top of the second tier.
Golf Betting Odds, Tournament Watch
3M Open, Round 1 (Thursday). Outright "to win" favorites, top 10 by shortest price:
- Scottie Scheffler: +275
- Kurt Kitayama: +2500
- Hideki Matsuyama: +2800
- Maverick McNealy: +2800
- Keith Mitchell: +3000
- Jackson Koivun: +3300
- Jake Knapp: +3300
- Tom Kim: +3500
- Corey Conners: +4500
- Max Homa: +4500
Movement: Scheffler has drifted from about +240 on Monday to +275 despite drawing roughly 44% of the handle at BetMGM, an unusual "wrong way" move on a heavily bet favorite. No meaningful shifts elsewhere in the top tier.
Odds via VegasInsider (consensus board, BetMGM prices shown; current as of July 22, prices vary by book).
These odds are a snapshot and will differ from the price you actually get at bet placement.
Live Tournament Pulse
Round 1 is just getting underway as this lands: the first groups went off the tee at 7:45 a.m. ET, so the board is still filling in. The marquee group to track is Scheffler with Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im off No. 10 at 8:29 a.m. ET, with Max Homa, Jake Knapp and Corey Conners just ahead of them. The morning wave gets the calmer, cooler air before afternoon heat builds, a small but real edge worth noting for live and DFS looks. Across the Atlantic, the Senior Open is already deep into its opening round at Gleneagles, where Padraig Harrington defends the title he won at Sunningdale last summer. Source: Golf.com, The R&A.
Under the Radar
Don't let the "birdie-fest" label flatten your model. TPC Twin Cities is a scoring course, but with water on 15 holes and three par-5s past 590 yards, the separators are par-5 conversion and long-approach proximity, not just who is hot with the putter. Sort your chase tier by strokes gained approach and par-5 scoring before you lock lineups. On the same course, the reachable-but-watery par-5s make aggressive long hitters like Hideki Matsuyama and Maverick McNealy the most natural derivatives to a lengthening Scheffler price. Course notes source: Covers.
Opening rounds are pure possibility, so pour a good cup, pick an early tee time to follow, and let the golf give you something to smile about today.
GolfStats Insider Daily Briefing | GolfStats.com
