Monday, July 20, 2026
GolfStats Insider Daily Briefing
Ryan Fox drains the putt of his life at Birkdale for the Claret Jug, and the Tour lands in Minnesota with Scheffler chasing a birdie-fest.
Top 3 Stories
1. Ryan Fox wins The Open at Royal Birkdale
Ryan Fox closed with a 4-under 68 and rolled in a birdie putt on the 72nd hole to claim the 154th Open at Royal Birkdale, finishing at 10-under and one clear of Cameron Young, who fired a Sunday 64 but bogeyed the last to fall a shot shy. Overnight leader Sam Burns never found the gear he needed, signing for a 2-over 72 and settling for solo third at 8-under. Scottie Scheffler and Tommy Fleetwood shared fourth at 7-under. At 39, Fox lands his first major and becomes just the third player from New Zealand to lift the Claret Jug, a breakthrough for a player long respected as a ball-striker who finally had the putter to match. Source: Golf Channel, Championship record.
2. Scheffler headlines his 3M Open debut as a runaway favorite
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler makes his first career start at the 3M Open this week, arriving off a T4 at the Open to top a TPC Twin Cities field where the winning number lives near 20-under (Kurt Kitayama won last year at 23-under, and all seven champions in event history have reached at least 15-under). On a par-71 that hands out birdies, Scheffler opens at +270, with no other player priced shorter than roughly 19/1. Source: DraftKings, PGA Tour.
3. The regular-season sprint to the FedExCup Playoffs begins
With the Open in the books, the PGA Tour's regular season enters its final stretch, and the 3M Open (an $8.8 million purse worth 500 FedExCup points) is one of the last chances for players outside the top of the standings to bank points before the postseason. Expect a bunched, low-scoring leaderboard where a hot putter and clean par-5 scoring decide the week more than raw ball-striking. Source: PGA Tour.
Player Movement & Status
- Scottie Scheffler makes his first career 3M Open start, adding the world No. 1 to a TPC Twin Cities field that rarely sees him. Source: Golf Channel.
- Kurt Kitayama returns to defend after winning the 2025 3M Open at 23-under. Source: PGA Tour.
- Chan Kim withdraws from the 3M Open, with Henrik Norlander taking his place. Source: Golf Channel.
- Eric Cole withdraws from the 3M Open, with Charley Hoffman stepping into the field. Source: Golf Channel.
This Week's Tournament Read
3M Open, TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota (par 71, 7,431 yards). This is a birdie-fest with water lurking on more than a dozen holes and three lengthy par-5s that set the scoring table. Kitayama's 23-under last year is no fluke; every champion in event history has reached at least 15-under, so this is a week to accept that pars lose ground. The forecast is classic Midwest summer: warm and mostly sunny, highs climbing from the mid-80s Thursday toward roughly 90 by Sunday with light wind, meaning soft, receptive, and very scorable. Source: PGA Tour, weather.com.
Trending up:
- Scottie Scheffler: world No. 1 fresh off a T4 at the Open, and a scorable track only widens the gap between him and the field. Source: DraftKings.
- Maverick McNealy: T3 here in 2024 at 15-under, long enough to attack the par-5s and accurate enough to dodge the water on a driver-heavy layout that fits him. Source: PGA Tour.
- Max Homa: quietly owns course history with a T3 at the 2020 3M Open, the kind of low-scoring venue where his best form has surfaced. Source: Sports Betting Dime.
Trending down:
- Kurt Kitayama: defending is its own burden, and repeating off a 23-under benchmark is a tall order; back-to-back 3M winners simply have not been the pattern here.
- The Birkdale carryover crowd: anyone arriving straight off a grueling links major and a transatlantic time swing is fighting letdown and travel, a fade angle explored below (Scheffler excepted on class).
Golf Betting Odds, Tournament Watch
3M Open, pre-tournament (first round Thursday, July 23). Outright "to win" favorites, top 10 by shortest price:
- Scottie Scheffler: +270
- Kurt Kitayama: +1900
- Maverick McNealy: +2100
- Hideki Matsuyama: +2500
- Ryan Fox: +2500
- Keith Mitchell: +2500
- Jake Knapp: +2700
- Jackson Koivun: +2800
- Tom Kim: +3300
- Pierceson Coody: +3600
Movement: Scheffler is a striking outlier at +270 with the next-shortest price sitting near +1900, a roughly seven-fold gap that reflects both his class and a course scorable enough to reward it. Note that VegasInsider's board was serving a stale, mislabeled page at check time, so prices here are via DraftKings.
Odds via DraftKings (current as of July 19, 2026; prices vary by book).
These odds are a snapshot and will differ from the price you actually get at bet placement.
Key Stats
- SG: Approach: at a venue where 20-under is the bar, the field has to stuff wedges and mid-irons; approach play is the single cleanest predictor of who gets to a birdie total.
- Par-5 Scoring (birdie-or-better %): three long, reachable par-5s are the scoring engine here, and converting all of them is non-negotiable when the winner is likely to need double-digit red just on the fives.
- SG: Off-the-Tee (distance plus position): length lets you attack the par-5s, but water guards more than a dozen holes and turns a wild miss into a two-shot penalty, so reward the bomber who keeps it dry, not just long.
- Birdie-or-Better % (with bentgrass putting): raw birdie volume and a hot flat stick win this week; lean into scoring frequency rather than a generic all-around SG: Total that flatters grinders on a course that punishes caution.
Comp Courses
- Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Classic): a parkland birdie-fest with bentgrass greens and low winning totals; the aggressive, birdie-heavy profiles that pop at the Rocket travel directly to Blaine.
- TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic): another Midwest scoring track where roughly 20-under wins and wedge play plus par-5 conversion rule; recent Deere form is a strong tell, and Lee Hodges (a 2023 3M champ) backing up a recent T3 at the Deere is exactly the kind of crossover signal to chase. Source: Sports Betting Dime.
- TPC Craig Ranch (CJ Cup Byron Nelson): a long, water-in-play, sub-60s-are-possible birdie sprint; the same low-scoring, distance-plus-wedges archetype that thrives there fits TPC Twin Cities cleanly.
Under the Radar
Fade the Open hangover, buy the rested course-history horses. A slice of this 3M field is arriving straight off a punishing links major and a six-to-seven-hour time-zone swing back to Central time. Post-major letdown plus travel quietly dents the crossover contingent, while rested, domestic names who skipped Birkdale walk into a birdie-fest fresh and familiar. That is where the model edge lives: downweight jet-lagged Open participants in matchups and DFS (Scheffler excepted on sheer class), and buy the rested course-history tier at a discount, names like Maverick McNealy (T3 in 2024) and Max Homa (T3 in 2020) who know the greens and got the week off. Source: PGA Tour, Sports Betting Dime.
The hidden separator: par-5 scoring. With three long par-5s and a reachable finish, this tournament is decided on the fives more than anywhere on the card. Before you lock a lineup or a matchup, sort the field by par-5 birdie-or-better rate rather than outright price; the players who bank four red numbers a day on the par-5s are the ones who post 20-under, regardless of how the books have them tiered.
A new week and a clean scorecard are their own kind of gift, so pick one thing worth doing well today and go chase it.
GolfStats Insider Daily Briefing | GolfStats.com
