Genesis Scottish Open Preview and Picks

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🏆 Genesis Scottish Open Field

The Genesis Scottish Open boasts a truly formidable field this year, a testament to its co-sanctioned status. We're seeing 68 of the top 100 and 32 of the top 50 in the Official World Rankings teeing it up, including eight of the top ten. While a few notable names like Russell Henley and Keegan Bradley are absent, the roster is still stacked with talent.

Among the top-50 players in the field are major champions and perennial contenders: Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Xander Schauffele (3), Justin Thomas (4), Collin Morikawa (5), Viktor Hovland (12), and Tommy Fleetwood (13). The depth extends further with players like Robert MacIntyre (14), Sam Burns (21), Justin Rose (23), and Sungjae Im (25) also in the mix.

Compared to last year, which saw 71 top-100 and 33 top-50 players, the field remains incredibly strong, highlighting the event's growing prestige.

The Race to Dubai also sees significant representation, with 21 of the top 25 players from this year's money list competing. Rory McIlroy (1), Laurie Canter (3), Martin Couvra (4), and Robert MacIntyre (8) lead this contingent. Only a handful of top players, including Tyrrell Hatton (2) and Patrick Reed (22), are not participating.

Similarly, the FedEx Cup point list is well-represented, with 20 of the top 25 players making the journey. Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Sepp Straka (3), Justin Thomas (5), and J.J. Spaun (7) are among the top names from the PGA Tour's standings. Notable absences include Patrick Cantlay (18) and Hideki Matsuyama (22).

Adding to the intrigue, eight past champions are returning to the Renaissance Club, including recent winners Robert MacIntyre (2024), Rory McIlroy (2023), and Xander Schauffele (2022). Their course knowledge and past success could prove invaluable.

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

• Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players at the Scottish Open, helping you identify those who consistently contend.

• Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

• Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at the Scottish Open.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

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⛳ Course & Contenders: A Deep Dive into the Scottish Open

The Genesis Scottish Open, now a co-sanctioned event, brings 75 PGA Tour players to the field, elevating the competition. While some big names like Keegan Bradley and Patrick Cantlay are taking a well-deserved break – understandable given the long season and the upcoming British Open – the field remains incredibly strong. For many, this week serves as a crucial tune-up for Portrush, but for others, a week off is the smarter play.

Keep an eye on J.J. Spaun, who returns after the Travelers and has quickly become a fan favorite. Another compelling story is Brian Campbell, a two-time winner this year who has overcome significant injury struggles. Both are feel-good stories we hope continue to unfold.

When it comes to making picks, this event often sees a second-tier player emerge victorious, as Robert MacIntyre did last year. While Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are always threats, consider placing your bets on a dark horse. Tom Kim, despite a frustrating year, has a strong track record in Ireland, with T-15th last year, T-6th in 2023, and 3rd in 2022. He seems fired up and ready to contend.

Sam Burns is another intriguing pick. Despite a recent slump, he has shown flashes of brilliance. My gut feeling says he could surprise us this week, even though his best finish at the Renaissance Club is a T-18th in 2021. Sometimes, it's just a hunch.

Tommy Fleetwood is a player many are rooting for to finally break through for an elusive PGA Tour victory. The Renaissance Club seems tailor-made for him, with four top-ten finishes in ten starts, including a runner-up in 2020 and a T-4th in 2022. The only caveat? My betting luck with him is notoriously bad. Perhaps a 'silent bet' is in order.

Adam Scott, who faltered at Oakmont, could be a dark horse after his runner-up finish here last year. And don't count out Robert MacIntyre, who was second in 2023 and won last year. He thrives in the summer, and another strong Scottish performance wouldn't be a surprise.

My big surprise pick is Collin Morikawa. Despite his recent putting woes, he'll have Scottish hero Billy Foster on the bag. Foster, known for guiding major champions like Seve Ballesteros and Matt Fitzpatrick, could be the catalyst Morikawa needs to find his winning form.

On the other hand, I'm shorting Xander Schauffele this week. His performance hasn't been up to his usual standards, with only one top-ten finish this year (T-8th at the Masters). It's hard to say if it's physical or mental, but he's not playing his best heading into his British Open defense.

Course Information: The Renaissance Club

The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, hosts the Scottish Open for the sixth consecutive year. This 7,293-yard, Par 71 course is strategically located on a bluff overlooking Blackness Bay and the North Sea, nestled among some of the world's most renowned golf courses, including Muirfield and Archerfield Links.

Originally part of the 1000-acre Archerfield Estate, the land features natural, windswept dunes interspersed with trees planted by Britain's Forestry Commission. Famed architect Tom Doak designed the course in 2008, with a focus on minimal earth movement to preserve the natural landscape. Doak strategically cleared some trees while incorporating others into the course design. A unique land swap with Muirfield allowed Doak to create some exceptional holes on the dunes near the sea. The course was revised in 2014 with input from two-time British Open champion Padraig Harrington, ensuring its playability for the Scottish Open. The Renaissance Club is widely considered an ideal preparation for the British Open at Portrush.

 Key Stats for Success at the Renaissance Club

Understanding the nuances of The Renaissance Club is crucial for predicting success at the Genesis Scottish Open. This modern links course demands a complete game, especially when the Scottish winds decide to make an appearance. While the course can yield low scores in calm conditions, as seen in 2019 and 2021, it transforms into a formidable challenge when the wind hoots, evidenced by the tougher winning scores in 2020 and 2022. Last year, ideal conditions led to Robert MacIntyre's impressive 18-under victory, but don't let that fool you – this course has teeth.

Historically, especially in the earlier European Tour years (2019-2021), putting proved to be a more critical factor than driving accuracy or greens in regulation. Winners like Bernd Wiesberger, Aaron Rai, and Min Woo Lee didn't necessarily dominate off the tee or with their irons, but their putting prowess carried them to victory. This suggests that The Renaissance Club isn't solely a bomber's paradise or a shotmaker's dream; it's a course where a well-rounded game, particularly on the greens, can shine.

Now, with the benefit of ShotLink data from the co-sanctioned events (2022-present), we can pinpoint the vital statistics that truly separate contenders from the rest. The course itself, at 7,282 yards and Par 71, isn't excessively long, but its exposure to the Firth of Forth makes wind a constant variable. While the forecast suggests mostly cloudy skies and moderate winds around 10-13 MPH, these conditions can still significantly impact play.

Based on recent data, here are the four key stats that will likely determine who hoists the trophy at the Genesis Scottish Open:

1. Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green

This stat remains a cornerstone of success in professional golf, and The Renaissance Club is no exception. It encapsulates a player's overall performance from the tee box to the green, combining driving, approach play, and short game (excluding putting). Winners here consistently demonstrate strong Tee-to-Green numbers. For instance, Rory McIlroy led the field in this category in his 2023 victory, gaining an impressive 3.169 shots. Robert MacIntyre, the 2024 champion, was also a top performer, ranking 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

2. Scrambling

Given the nature of links golf and the challenges presented by missed greens at The Renaissance Club, scrambling becomes paramount. The ability to get up and down from difficult positions around the greens is a true test of a player's short game artistry. While the course can be tough for scrambling, those who excel in this area often find themselves in contention. Even if a player isn't hitting every green, their ability to save par from tricky lies will be invaluable.

3. Putts Inside 10 Feet

This seemingly simple statistic highlights the importance of capitalizing on scoring opportunities and minimizing costly mistakes on the greens. While overall putting average is important, the ability to consistently convert putts from within 10 feet is a strong indicator of a player's confidence and precision with the flat stick. In both 2023 and 2024, The Renaissance Club ranked among the toughest courses for making putts inside 10 feet, emphasizing the premium placed on this skill.

4. Par Breakers (Birdies and Eagles Made)

Ultimately, to win any golf tournament, a player must make birdies and eagles. At the Genesis Scottish Open, where scoring can fluctuate with the conditions, the ability to consistently break par is crucial. The Renaissance Club, while challenging, does offer opportunities for aggressive play. Winners like Rory McIlroy (2023) and Xander Schauffele (2022) demonstrated their ability to rack up birdies and eagles, showcasing that even on a demanding course, aggressive scoring is rewarded. The player who can consistently convert opportunities into red numbers will be in prime position to win.

Checkout the Golf IQ Composite Ranking results to view the full field ranking. Some of the players in the top 10 will surprise you…

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Our Picks at The Genesis Scottish Open

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