FedEx St. Jude Championship Preview and Picks

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Welcome to this week's edition of GolfStats Insider, your go-to source for in-depth analysis and insights into the world of professional golf. This week, our focus shifts to the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, held at the challenging TPC Southwind in Germantown, Tennessee. As the PGA Tour season enters its thrilling conclusion, the stakes are higher than ever, with only the top players vying for the coveted FedEx Cup.

This newsletter aims to provide you with a comprehensive preview of the tournament, drawing exclusively from the our industry leading GolfStats database. We'll delve into the field, uncover the latest buzz from the tour, provide essential tournament information, and highlight the key statistics crucial for success at TPC Southwind. Our goal is to equip you with the knowledge to appreciate the nuances of this high-stakes event and give you a taste of the premium content available to our GolfStats.com subscribers.

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🏆 FedEx St. Jude Championship Field

The FedEx St. Jude Championship boasts an elite field of 69 players, comprising the top contenders from the PGA Tour season. This exclusive gathering includes 69 of the top 106 players from the latest Official World Rankings, with an impressive 44 of the top 50, and 22 of the top 25 players teeing it up. Notably absent from the top 70 are Rory McIlroy (2), Bryson DeChambeau (16), Tyrrell Hatton (22), Billy Horschel (29), Adam Scott (47), Matt McCarty (50), Alex Koren (55), John Keefer (56), Sahith Theegala (57), Byeong Hun An (60), Davis Thompson (65), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (67), and Patrick Reed (68). This year's field mirrors last year's strength, which featured 69 top-100 players and 46 from the top-50.

From the FedEx Cup rankings, 69 of the top 70 are present, with the exception of Rory McIlroy, who is not playing this week. The field also features four past champions of this event: Hideki Matsuyama (2024), Lucas Glover (2023), Tony Finau (2021), and Jason Day (2015).

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

• Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players in the FedEx St. Jude field, helping you identify those who consistently contend.

• Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

• Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at TPC Southwind.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

⛳ The Final Stretch

As the 2025 PGA Tour season enters its final stretch, the FedEx St. Jude Championship marks a pivotal moment for many players. After 36 events since January, the season concludes for those who didn't make the cut for the playoffs. We've seen some surprising exits, with players like William Mouw, despite winning the ISCO, failing to secure a spot in the top 70. His dramatic drop from 55th after his win highlights the intense competition.

Veteran Adam Scott, a consistent presence in the FedEx Cup since its inception in 2007, will be notably absent, finishing 90th in the rankings. Similarly, Tom Kim, who has been a playoff regular since joining the PGA Tour in 2022, finds himself at 94th this year and will be watching from home. Taylor Moore, another player who has participated in the last three FedEx events, finished 100th this year. While that would have secured a spot in 2023 when 100 players were taken, this year it means no August play and a need to compete in every Fall event to retain his card for 2026.

A significant change this year is the PGA Tour's decision to eliminate the advantage previously given to top FedEx players at the Tour Championship. Now, everyone will start the Tour Championship on even ground, with the winner claiming the FedEx Cup. This shift has sparked debate, as it seems counterintuitive to a year-long race where the goal is to reach the top 30 for the Tour Championship. For instance, Scottie Scheffler, entering the Tour Championship as number one, will have the same winning odds (theoretically) as the 30th-ranked player.

This new format has already created ripples, with Rory McIlroy, currently number two in the FedEx Cup standings, opting out of this week's event. His strong position virtually guarantees him a spot at East Lake, raising concerns that other top-ten players might follow suit and take the week off. This trend could prompt the tour to implement measures to prevent such occurrences in future seasons.

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 Key Stats for Success at TPC Southwind

The FedEx St. Jude Championship is held at TPC Southwind in Germantown, Tennessee. This par 70 course spans 7,288 yards and has been a fixture on the PGA Tour since 1989, when it became the home of the FedEx St. Jude Classic.

Last year, TPC Southwind played to an average of 68.95, ranking as the T-23rd hardest course on tour. Despite this, some holes remain particularly challenging, with three of the last five holes playing over par last year. The par 4 18th hole was the 95th hardest on the PGA Tour in 2024, averaging 4.196, and the 14th hole was the 96th hardest, averaging 3.196.

Understanding the vital statistics at TPC Southwind is crucial for predicting success. This analysis is based on the most important stats for the course, drawing from last year’s FedEx St. Jude Invitational data and the 2025 stats of all players in the field.

TPC Southwind has been a consistent presence on the PGA Tour since 1989. Initially, it hosted the FedEx St. Jude Classic (until 2018), then the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (2019-2021), and since 2022, it has been the first event of the FedExCup playoffs. Interestingly, many initially believed TPC Southwind would be a more challenging test. While it played to a 70.52 scoring average in 2018 (11th hardest on Tour) and historically played over par, its scoring average has dropped significantly in recent years. In 2019, it was 69.50, in 2020 it was 69.55 (14th hardest), in 2021 it was 69.05 (33rd), in 2022 it was 69.16 (30th), and in 2023 it was 68.64 (39th). Last year, it played to a 68.95 average, ranking T-23rd.

This shift to lower scores can be attributed to a couple of factors. Firstly, the event's move to late July and August means less rain, resulting in rough that is not as high and lush as it was in mid-June. Secondly, the field size has significantly decreased. The old FedEx St. Jude Classic had fields of 156 players, while the World Golf Championship and playoff events have fields under 80. With only the best players competing, the scoring average is expected to remain around 68.50. Despite last year's slight increase to 68.95, the course effectively plays a full stroke under par.

Memphis has experienced dry, hot, and muggy conditions recently, with only three inches of rain since the start of July. While some rain is expected on Tuesday at TPC Southwind, it is not anticipated to make the rough tougher for the rest of the tournament week. This lack of lush rough suggests that low scoring will likely continue.

Here are the four key stats for success at TPC Southwind:

1. Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green

This has consistently been an essential stat for champions at TPC Southwind. Last year, the course ranked 28th in driving accuracy and 21st in greens in regulation. Winner Hideki Matsuyama was 25th in driving accuracy and 4th in greens in regulation, placing him 9th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2023, Lucas Glover was 4th in this category. Will Zalatoris (2022) was 18th, Abraham Ancer (2021) was 4th, and Justin Thomas (2020) was 1st. Previous winners like Brooks Koepka (2019) and Dustin Johnson (2018) were 6th and 1st, respectively. Daniel Berger (2016, 2017) was 1st in both his winning years, and Fabian Gomez (2015) was also 1st, underscoring the consistency of this stat's importance.

2. One-Putt Percentage

TPC Southwind's large greens (12,276 square feet) contribute to the importance of one-putt percentage. Last year, the course ranked 44th in this stat, while in 2023 it was 54th, indicating more one-putts. It ranked 49th in both 2022 and 2021. Recent winners have excelled here: Hideki Matsuyama (2024) was 2nd with 43 one-putts, Lucas Glover (2023) was T-19th with 34, and Will Zalatoris (2022) was T-10th with 35. Abraham Ancer (2021) was T-18th, and Brooks Koepka (2019) was T-1st with 42 one-putts. While Justin Thomas (2020) was T-51st, the trend shows that top players generally achieve a high number of one-putt greens.

3. Scrambling

Given that players will inevitably miss greens, the ability to scramble effectively is vital. The course ranked T-41st in scrambling last year, 56th in 2023, 38th in 2022, 34th in 2021, and 31st in 2020. In 2019, it was 37th, and in 2018, 31st. Recent champions have demonstrated strong scrambling skills: Matsuyama (2024) ranked 18th, Glover (2023) was 1st, Zalatoris (2022) was 7th, Ancer (2021) was 1st, and Thomas (2020) was 6th. Koepka (2019) was 1st, and Johnson (2018) was 4th, highlighting its consistent importance.

4. Birdie Average

Making birdies is crucial for low scores at TPC Southwind. Last year, the course ranked T-20th in birdie average, with a field average of 3.81 birdies per round. In 2023, it was T-36th, and in 2022, 30th. It ranked T-32nd in 2021, 16th in 2020, and T-24th in 2019. Historically, it has been challenging to make birdies, with rankings of 10th in 2018, T-10th in 2017, 14th in 2016, and 11th in 2015. This indicates that while birdies are essential, they are not easily come by, making players who can consistently make them stand out.

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