BMW Championship Preview and Picks

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🏆 BMW Championship Field

The BMW Championship field this week features 49 of the top golfers, with a strong contingent of 40 players currently ranked within the top 50 of the Official World Rankings. Notably, Rickie Fowler, ranked 87th, is the highest-ranked player in the field who is not within the top 50. Several prominent players from the top 50 are not participating this week, including Sepp Straka (10th), Bryson Dechambeau (17th), Tyrrell Hatton (24th), Wyndham Clark (26th), Billy Horschel (30th), Aaron Rai (32nd), Max Greyserman (39th), Min Woo Lee (46th), Adam Scott (47th), and Chris Kirk (49th).

Comparing this year's field to last year's, there's a slight shift; last year saw 50 players from the top 61 and 41 from the top 50. This year, 49 of the top 50 from the FedEx Cup rankings are present, with Sepp Straka (5th in FedEx Cup) withdrawing due to a family matter.

The tournament also welcomes back six past champions: Keegan Bradley (2024 & 2018), Viktor Hovland (2023), Patrick Cantlay (2022 & 2021), Justin Thomas (2019), Jason Day (2015), and Rory McIlroy (2012).

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

• Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players at the BMW Championship, helping you identify those who consistently contend.

• Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

• Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at the BMW Championship.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

⛳ And Then There Were 50

The FedEx St. Jude Championship, now in its third year of reducing the field from 125 to 70 players, proved to be a success, making the event cleaner and generating more interest for tournaments like the 3M and Wyndham. The reduction in field size did not detract from the excitement, as the focus shifted to the significant race for players to secure a spot within the top 50. While in previous years, reaching the top 30 was crucial for major exemptions, the new emphasis is on the top 50, which now grants exemption into the eight signature events, each boasting a substantial $20 million purse.

Following the Memphis event, there was a dramatic scramble for positions within the top 50. Players like J.T. Poston (51st), Jhonattan Vegas (56th), Rickie Fowler (64th), Bud Cauley (53rd), and Kurt Kitayama (52nd) were all outside the top 50 but vying for a spot. Conversely, Aldrich Potgieter (43rd), Jordan Spieth (48th), Jake Knapp (47th), Wyndham Clark (49th), and Min Woo Lee (50th) were precariously inside the top 50 and struggled to maintain their positions. Kurt Kitayama's impressive final round of 67 saw him climb 15 places to finish T-9th, securing his spot. However, there were disappointments, notably Jordan Spieth's drop from 48th to 52nd.

This year's BMW Championship returns to Caves Valley Golf Club, a course that opened in 1991 and has a rich history of hosting significant events, including the 2021 BMW Championship, the 1995 U.S. Mid-Amateur, the 2002 U.S. Senior Open, and the 2017 Senior Players Championship. Designed by Tom Fazio, the course spans 962 acres of rolling, tree-dense terrain. Fazio masterfully created a challenging course while preserving its natural beauty. The nines have been flipped to enhance spectator viewing on the closing holes and improve television aesthetics.

While the course is designed to be challenging, low scores are still anticipated. Significant renovations over the past two years have seen many holes altered and all greens redone, with an air sub-system installed under the greens to control firmness. In 2021, Caves Valley was a par 72 and considered one of the easiest courses of the year. However, the par has now been reduced to 70, with the par 5 2nd and 12th holes converted into very long par 4s. Additionally, 59 yards have been added to the course, ensuring it will play considerably tougher than in 2021.

Most of the field will face a disadvantage, having only two days to learn the course. Only a few players, including Dustin Johnson, Chris Kirk, Webb Simpson, and Kevin Kisner, have prior experience, having played in the 2005 NCAA Championship and the 2007 Palmer Cup at Caves Valley. The weather forecast indicates hot and muggy conditions with a possibility of scattered thunderstorms over the weekend, though no delays are expected. Players who competed in 2021 highly praised the course, finding it enjoyable to play.

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Course and Tournament Information: Caves Valley Golf Club

Caves Valley Golf Club, located in Owings Mills, MD, is a par 70 course spanning 7,601 yards. It is renowned as one of the country's premier golf courses capable of hosting a PGA Tour event. The club, a private entity situated 15 miles northwest of Baltimore, earned high praise from players during its 2021 BMW Championship debut, leading to its return as host this year. This provides a fantastic opportunity for the golf-starved Baltimore area, the 21st largest metropolitan city in the U.S., to once again experience a PGA Tour event, a rare occurrence since the John Kennedy administration prior to 2021.

The BMW Championship, a cornerstone event in professional golf, boasts a rich history dating back to 1899 as the Western Open. This year marks the 117th edition of the tournament, a testament to its enduring legacy in the sport.

For over six decades, from its inception until 1961, the Western Open traversed various cities across the United States, including Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco, establishing its presence as a significant event on the golf calendar. In 1962, the tournament found a more permanent home in the Chicago area, rotating among different local courses, solidifying its ties to the region.

A pivotal moment in the tournament's history occurred in 1974 when the Butler National Golf Club in Oak Brook became its annual venue. This partnership continued until shortly after the 1990 tournament. The PGA Tour's policy shift, mandating that events only be held at clubs allowing minority members, led to Butler National's replacement. This change underscored the evolving social landscape and the PGA Tour's commitment to inclusivity.

Key Stats for Success at Caves Valley

While the Caves Valley Golf Club has undergone significant changes since it last hosted the BMW Championship in 2021, an analysis of past performance, particularly from the 2021 event, combined with the course's current modifications, reveals key statistical categories that will be crucial for success this week. The course, now a par 70 measuring 7,601 yards, is designed to play considerably tougher, emphasizing precision and strategic play. Based on the 2021 data and the course's evolution, here are the four vital stats for winning at Caves Valley:

Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: In 2021, the field averaged 305.9 yards in driving distance and hit 66.05% of fairways. Patrick Cantlay, the winner, ranked 15th in driving distance at 299.0 yards and 28th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, gaining 0.308 shots. This indicates that while long hitting is present, strategic placement and overall ball-striking from tee to green are paramount, especially with the course playing longer and with dogleg holes requiring careful drive placement.

Greens in Regulation (GIR): The 2021 event saw a high percentage of Greens in Regulation, with the field hitting 72.40% of greens. Cantlay excelled in this area, hitting 58 of 72 greens, ranking T-2nd. With the greens being relatively small (5,200 square feet) and now featuring a sub-air system for firmness control, hitting greens consistently will be critical to setting up birdie opportunities and avoiding challenging up-and-downs.

Strokes Gained Around the Green: Despite the high GIR, players will inevitably miss greens. In 2021, the field got it up and down 68.27% of the time. Cantlay, while winning, ranked 57th in scrambling at 57.14% and lost 0.278 shots in Strokes Gained Around the Green. This suggests that while not his strongest suit in 2021, a strong short game will be essential for mitigating errors and saving pars on a course designed to be more challenging.

Strokes Gained Putting: The greens at Caves Valley are described as fast and true, favoring good putters. In 2021, the course ranked 47th in putting average, 40th in one-putt percentage, and 30th in putting inside ten feet. Patrick Cantlay dominated this category, ranking 1st in total putting and Strokes Gained Putting (gaining 3.644 shots), 5th in one-putt percentage, and 31st in putting inside ten feet. Given the consistent firmness and speed of the newly redone greens, exceptional putting will be a significant differentiator.

These four statistical categories highlight the multifaceted challenge presented by the redesigned Caves Valley Golf Club. Success will hinge on a combination of precise ball-striking, consistent green-hitting, a sharp short game, and, most importantly, superior putting on fast, true greens.

Check out our Golf IQ Composite rankings for the full field here (Golf IQ subscription required).

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Who to watch for at the BMW Championship

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