WM Phoenix Open Preview and Picks

⛳ Welcome to This Week’s GolfStats Insider

Golf fans, we’re back with another edition of GolfStats Insider, your go-to source for expert analysis, historical insights, and data-driven picks for the upcoming PGA Tour event. While this newsletter is free, a GolfStats subscription takes your golf analytics to another level—providing in-depth performance charts, sortable history, and proprietary formulas to help you make the best picks. If you're looking for an edge in your fantasy league or betting strategy, now’s the time to upgrade!

If this newsletter was forwarded to you, we would really appreciate you subscribing by clicking the button below. Please forward to a friend if you are already a subscriber.

🏆 Breaking Down the 2025 WM Phoenix Open Field

The WM Phoenix Open always delivers an electric atmosphere, and this year’s field is shaping up to be another exciting one. A total of 63 of the top 100 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are set to tee it up, including 28 of the top 50. Leading the pack are World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, No. 5 Hideki Matsuyama, and No. 7 Wyndham Clark, with several other top-ranked players joining the fray, including Justin Thomas (#15), Sepp Straka (#16), Sahith Theegala (#19), and Sungjae Im (#21).

Compared to last year, when 27 top-50 players and 59 top-100 players were in the field, this year’s edition boasts a slightly stronger roster.

In the FedExCup standings, 13 of the top 25 are in the field, led by current points leader Sepp Straka, along with Hideki Matsuyama (#2), Nick Taylor (#4), Sungjae Im (#6), and Lucas Glover (#11). These players have already made strong starts to the season and will look to continue their momentum at TPC Scottsdale.

A total of six past champions return to Scottsdale looking for another win. Defending champion Nick Taylor headlines the group, along with back-to-back winner Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2023), two-time champion Hideki Matsuyama (2016, 2017), Rickie Fowler (2019), Gary Woodland (2018), and Webb Simpson (2020). Each of them has conquered the stadium-style setup of TPC Scottsdale before and will be eager to do so again in front of the raucous Arizona crowd.

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

• Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players at Pebble Beach, helping you identify those who consistently contend.

• Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

• Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at Pebble Beach.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

Quick side note - one of our subscribers let us know that he won the Fantasy Golf Mega Millionaire Satellite contest by putting together his DK lineup using GolfStats.com’s Golf IQ tools! 💰️ 💰️ 💰️ 

We love hearing this!!!

🌵 Back to Phoenix: The “Greatest Show on Grass” Returns

The WM Phoenix Open is back at TPC Scottsdale, bringing its signature energy and massive crowds. However, after last year’s fan issues, tournament officials have taken steps to ensure a more controlled environment. The event has long been the biggest party on the PGA Tour, drawing record-breaking attendance numbers. But in recent years, the atmosphere became too rowdy, with unruly behavior, fights, and distractions for players and fans alike.

This year, a zero-tolerance policy has been put in place to address these concerns. Increased security, updated entrance paths, and changes to alcohol sales should help maintain the event’s signature excitement while preventing things from getting out of hand. A key difference this year? The weather. Last year’s rain added to the chaos, but with better conditions, officials hope for a smoother tournament.

Crowds will still be enormous, especially around holes 16, 17, and 18, where nearly 50 new suites have been added. With 200,000+ fans expected on Friday and Saturday, TPC Scottsdale remains one of the most attended event in golf—and one of the most electric.

🔥 Sub-60 Watch: Will We See a Historic Round?

TPC Scottsdale rewards low scores, and with soft greens and minimal wind, we could be on 59-watch this week. Last year, Nick Taylor came close with a course-record 60 in the first round. In the 37 years at this venue, five rounds of 60 have been recorded, and 21 rounds of 65 or better were shot last year alone.

Historically, Mark Calcavecchia (2001) and Phil Mickelson (2013) both posted 256 (-28) for 72 holes, flirting with the PGA Tour scoring record. Mickelson even lipped out a putt for 59. Could someone break the barrier this year? With soft conditions and a world-class field, it’s possible.

Recent years have also seen multiple rounds in the low 60s, including Jordan Spieth’s 61 in 2021, Scottie Scheffler’s 62 in 2023, and two 63s last year by Jordan Spieth and Beau Hossler. If scoring conditions remain favorable, don’t be surprised if someone goes sub-60.

🏆 Rory’s Win at Pebble: A Turning Point?

Rory McIlroy’s dominant win last week at Pebble Beach could signal a new era for him in 2025. Historically, Rory has struggled to win early in the PGA Tour season, with his previous earliest victory coming on March 4, 2012. However, his performance at Pebble was different—it was controlled, dominant, and stress-free.

Rory led seven different stat categories, including Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance, and Long Putting, showcasing an all-around game. He made three eagles, 20 birdies, and only five bogeys. Most importantly, he looked in complete control, much like Scottie Scheffler has in recent years.

The question remains: Can Rory carry this form into the majors? Historically, he’s posted great top-10 finishes in major seasons like 2022, but top-10s don’t mean much—he needs to win. If he keeps up this form, 2025 could be a breakthrough year for him.

⛳ Other Player News: Scottie Scheffler & Jordan Spieth

Scottie Scheffler: Strong Return from Injury

Scheffler’s T-9 finish at Pebble Beach was a positive sign after hand surgery in December. While he wasn’t at his absolute best, he still made 20 birdies and only five bogeys, proving his game is in solid shape. He ranked T-6 in Greens in Regulation (54 of 72), showing his ball-striking remains elite. His biggest issue? Putting. He finished 41st in Strokes Gained Putting, a weakness he’ll need to address. Still, expect him to be a major contender at TPC Scottsdale and next week at the Genesis Invitational.

Jordan Spieth: Signs of Rust, But Encouraging Finish

Returning from wrist surgery, Spieth’s T-69 at Pebble was a mixed bag. A 79 on Saturday in brutal conditions derailed his week, including a quad-bogey 9 on 18. However, he rebounded with a bogey-free 67 on Sunday, flashing signs of his old brilliance. His putting was a major issue, ranking 70th in Strokes Gained Putting, but his ball-striking was solid. If he sharpens his short game, he could return to form by the time the Masters rolls around.

🏆 A Look at WM Phoenix Open History

The WM Phoenix Open has a rich history dating back to 1932, originally known as the Arizona Open. It officially became the Phoenix Open in 1935 and has been played at TPC Scottsdale since 1987.

Legendary golfers like Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, and Phil Mickelson have all won here. The event’s signature stadium-style viewing, particularly around the par-3 16th hole, has made it the rowdiest event in golf.

Over the years, attendance has skyrocketed, with the 2018 edition setting a record of 719,179 total fans, including 216,818 on Saturday alone cementing the WM Phoenix Open as the most attended event in the sport.

🏌️‍♂️ TPC Scottsdale Course Breakdown

• Course: TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, AZ

• Par: 71

• Yardage: 7,261 yards

• Difficulty (2024 Rank): 25th hardest on Tour, played to an average of 69.89

Course Features:

• Designed by: Tom Weiskopf & Jay Morrish (opened in 1986)

• Renovated in 2016, adding bunkers, trees, and reshaped greens

• 6,770 sq. ft. average green size (slightly above Tour average)

• Signature Holes:

  • 16th Hole: The famous stadium hole, home to Tiger Woods’ iconic hole-in-one in 1997

  • 17th Hole: The only par-4 ace in PGA Tour history (Andrew Magee, 2001)

Scoring Trends:

• Winning score has averaged -19 under par over the last 24 years

• Expect birdies and eagles galore with the right conditions

📊 Key Stats for Success at TPC Scottsdale

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the WM Phoenix Open:

The WM Phoenix Open is played on one of the most fan-friendly yet statistically challenging courses on the PGA Tour. TPC Scottsdale rewards ball-striking, aggressive play, and precision on approach shots. While scoring conditions fluctuate based on weather, the tournament generally produces low scores, with past winners relying on strokes gained tee-to-green, strong proximity numbers, and the ability to scramble effectively.

Course Scoring Trends

• Last year’s scoring average: 69.89 (-0.11 under par per round)

• 2023: 70.98 (18th hardest out of 58 courses)

• 2022: 70.29 (26th hardest out of 50 courses)

• 2021: 69.45 (42nd hardest out of 51 courses)

• 2020: 70.32 (18th hardest out of 41 courses)

Scoring varies significantly based on weather conditions. In 2021, low winds and ideal weather made it one of the easiest setups. Meanwhile, 2023 saw wind speeds of 12-25 mph, making it nearly two-and-a-half strokes harder. Last year’s soft conditions and preferred lies allowed for low scoring, but 2025 is expected to be dry and warm (70-75°F), setting the stage for a firm, fast tournament.

To contend at TPC Scottsdale, players must excel in four critical statistical areas:

Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green

TPC Scottsdale rewards elite ball-striking, with past champions ranking near the top in driving accuracy, greens hit, and approach play. While distance off the tee is beneficial, accuracy and precision are more important for setting up scoring opportunities. Last year’s winner, Nick Taylor, ranked 6th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, hitting 59 of 72 greens (T-2 in the field). In 2023, Scottie Scheffler led the field in this stat, showing that controlling the golf ball tee-to-green is key to victory.

Proximity to the Hole

With large greens at TPC Scottsdale, simply hitting them isn’t enough—players must get their approaches close to capitalize on birdie chances. Last year, the course ranked T-11 in proximity to the hole, with the field averaging 39 feet, 2 inches on approach shots. Scottie Scheffler ranked T-14 in proximity during his 2023 win, proving that strong iron play is essential. Expect players who consistently land the ball inside 35 feet to gain a significant edge this week.

Par Breakers (Birdies & Eagles)

Scoring is the name of the game at TPC Scottsdale, making Par Breakers (total birdies and eagles made) one of the most important stats. In 2024, 1,495 birdies and 49 eagles were made, making it one of the better scoring venues on Tour. Nick Taylor ranked 3rd in total birdies (24) last year, while Scheffler made 26 birdies in 2022, leading the field. Players who consistently capitalize on birdie opportunities will have the best shot at winning.

Scrambling

While TPC Scottsdale favors aggressive play, missing greens is inevitable, and players must be able to get up and down to save par. The course ranked 28th in scrambling last year, with players getting up and down 60.47% of the time. Nick Taylor ranked 1st in scrambling during his 2024 win, converting 12 of 13 up-and-downs, while Scheffler ranked 1st in this category in 2023. Strong scrambling skills are crucial for maintaining momentum.

Who to watch for at the WM Phoenix Open

Subscribe to Premium to read the rest.