Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview and Picks

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⛳ Your Insider Edge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Golf fans, welcome back to another edition of GolfStats Insider—your ultimate source for expert analysis, historical insights, and data-driven picks for the PGA Tour. This week, we shift our focus to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, one of the season’s premier tests of ball striking and resilience. While this newsletter delivers top-tier insights for free, a GolfStats subscription unlocks deeper analytics—sortable history, performance charts, and proprietary formulas—to help you gain an edge in fantasy golf and betting strategies. If you’re serious about picking winners, now’s the time to upgrade!

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🏌️‍♂️ A Stacked Field at Bay Hill

This week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational boasts one of the strongest fields of the season, featuring nine of the top 10 players in the world and 45 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings. Among the headliners are World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, No. 2 Rory McIlroy, No. 3 Xander Schauffele, and No. 4 Ludvig Åberg, all looking to conquer Bay Hill’s demanding setup.

The tournament also features 25 of the top 25 players in the current FedExCup standings, making it a pivotal week in the early season race. Returning champions in the field include Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2024), Rory McIlroy (2018), and Jason Day (2016), all with a history of success at Bay Hill.

With such a deep and competitive field, fantasy players and bettors will want to dive into GolfStats’ performance charts—ranking players by their historical success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational—as well as our proprietary formulas that highlight the best performers over the past five years. If history is any indicator, course familiarity and recent form will be key in determining this year’s champion.

Our sortable 8-year glance also give you a glimpse into the cuts made, tops 10s, and total earnings at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Great data-driven insights for DFS and having some fun wagering on the outcome. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

Get ready for an elite showdown at Bay Hill!

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⛳️ Bay Hill Brings the Best

The Arnold Palmer Invitational returns to Bay Hill, a course that was the pride and joy of Arnold Palmer. This marks the ninth time the tournament will be played without its legendary host, and while some feared that top players might begin skipping the event, that hasn’t happened—thanks in large part to its status as a designated event with a $20 million purse and a $4 million first-place prize. However, there is concern that if the event loses its designated status in the future, participation from marquee players may decline.

Palmer’s influence on this tournament was immeasurable. He personally reached out to players, even writing letters inviting them to compete—something that made it nearly impossible to say no. While his absence is felt, the event remains one of the premier stops on the PGA Tour, largely because of its history, prestige, and the challenge of Bay Hill itself. Despite the big-money incentives, scheduling remains the key factor in player participation. With The Masters just six weeks away, some top players are managing their schedules carefully, opting out of events like the Valspar Championship and Houston Open, while others may use the Valero Texas Open as a tune-up for Augusta.

This year marks the 60th edition of the tournament, though Palmer himself only counted the years since the event moved to Bay Hill in 1979—making this the 46th playing at its current venue. Under Palmer’s guidance, the event rose from near extinction to one of the most respected tournaments on tour, and its legacy continues today.

History tells us that course experience matters at Bay Hill. Before Kurt Kitayama’s win in 2023, 16 straight champions had made the cut in their previous Arnold Palmer Invitational start, and nearly every winner over the past three decades had previous victories on the PGA or European Tours. Most recent champions also had a top-20 finish in a prior start at Bay Hill and had played the event at least three times. While outliers like Kitayama do emerge, the data suggests that course familiarity is a major advantage—a key factor for fantasy players and bettors to consider this week.

🏆️ A Demanding Test with Deep Roots in Golf History

The Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, has long been a staple on the PGA Tour, offering a tough yet fair test for the world's best players. Playing at 7,466 yards with a par of 72, the course features 103 bunkers and water hazards on nine holes, challenging players to navigate its strategic layout. Last year, the scoring average was 72.33, ranking it as the 10th most difficult course on Tour. However, in extreme wind conditions, as seen in 2020, Bay Hill can become even more punishing—it was the toughest course on Tour that year with an average score of 74.11.

Originally designed in 1960 by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee, Bay Hill became synonymous with Arnold Palmer, who fell in love with the course and the Orlando area decades earlier. His connection to Bay Hill began in the 1940s, when he played a college match there as a Wake Forest golfer and considered transferring to Rollins College. That memory stuck with him, and in the 1960s, after playing an exhibition at Bay Hill, he worked with investors to lease the club before purchasing it in 1976. From that moment on, Palmer made countless changes to the course, constantly refining its design until his passing in 2016.

While Bay Hill has remained largely untouched since Palmer’s passing, one key modification was made recently—the large front bunker on the par-3 17th was removed. But one thing has remained constant: the thick, punishing rough, which plays a significant role in keeping scoring in check. Over the years, winning scores have fluctuated based on course conditions. In recent history, Scottie Scheffler won last year at 15-under, while in tougher conditions, Tyrrell Hatton (2020) and Scottie Scheffler (2022) won at 4-under and 5-under, respectively.

Bay Hill also underwent a significant facelift in 2016, when all greens were re-grassed with Emerald Bermuda for a smoother, faster roll. Fairways and tees were re-grassed with Celebration Bermuda, and closely mown areas around the greens made chipping and scrambling much tougher.

This week, the course is set up with deep rough and firm conditions, making it likely that the winning score will not reach double digits under par. Players who can handle navigating thick rough, avoiding hazards, and excelling in approach shots and putting on fast greens will have the best shot at contending for the Arnold Palmer Invitational title.

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📊 Key Stats for Success at Bay Hill

Bay Hill is known for its demanding layout, and historically, players who excel in ball striking, approach shots, scrambling, and short putting have the best chance of winning. Last year, the course ranked 10th toughest on Tour, with a scoring average of 72.33, though in past years—especially when wind conditions were severe—it has played significantly tougher. While this year’s forecast suggests milder conditions, Bay Hill’s thick rough, firm greens, and strategically placed hazards will still test every aspect of a player’s game.

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green

Bay Hill places a premium on hitting fairways and greens, making Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green the most important stat this week. Past champions have consistently ranked among the best in greens in regulation, and even those who struggled off the tee managed to recover with elite iron play. Scottie Scheffler (2023) ranked 1st in this stat, while previous winners like Kurt Kitayama, Bryson DeChambeau, and Tyrrell Hatton all finished near the top in this category.

Proximity to the Hole

While hitting greens is crucial, getting approach shots close is equally important. Last year, Bay Hill ranked 15th in Proximity to the Hole, with an average approach distance of 38 feet, 5 inches. Winners like Kitayama, Scheffler, and Francesco Molinari have all ranked highly in this category, which helps players convert more birdie chances and avoid difficult lag putts on Bay Hill’s slick greens.

Scrambling

With Bay Hill’s difficult rough and deep bunkers, missing greens is inevitable, making scrambling a key to success. Last year, the field got up and down just 56.9% of the time, ranking 17th on Tour. Historically, champions like Scottie Scheffler (2023) and Kurt Kitayama (2022) were among the best in scrambling for the week, proving that a strong short game can be the difference between contending and missing the cut.

Putting Inside 10 Feet

Bay Hill’s Emerald Bermuda greens are some of the best rolling surfaces on Tour, meaning players need to capitalize on makeable putts. While the course ranked 32nd in putting inside 10 feet last year (out of 38 courses), past winners have shown elite consistency in short putting. Scheffler (2023), Kitayama (2022), and Bryson DeChambeau (2021) all thrived in this area, proving that even the best ball strikers need to convert short putts to seal the win.

Final Takeaway

Winning at Bay Hill requires precision off the tee, strong iron play, a sharp short game, and confident putting from inside 10 feet. Expect the leaderboard to be filled with players who excel in these categories —a blueprint followed by nearly every recent Arnold Palmer Invitational champion. 💰️ 💰️ 💰️ 

Who to watch for at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

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