Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the fourth of eight designated events of the year and will have a great field along with a $20 million purse. $3.6 Million to the winner.

Here’s a look at the scoring average at Bay Hill for the last 4 years:
2022 – Average was 73.89, was the 4th hardest of the 50 courses that year (High wins up to 20 mph over the weekend)
2021 – Average was 73.02, it was the 9th hardest of the 51 courses that year
2020 – Average was 74.11, and it was the hardest of 41 courses played that year (The course was dry and fast, and each day saw gusts to 22 to 25mph)
2019 – Average was 72.38, was 9th hardest of 49 courses that year

The folks who run the Arnold Palmer Invitational have never made Bay Hill any easier over the past few years. But with conditions this year, Thursday and Friday will be perfect with winds under 10 mph. The wind will return on Saturday, with gusts up to 20 mph, and Sunday will bring showers and winds. But the pros will get a break to start things off.

Keys to Picking a Winner at Bay Hill

Our #1 category for this week is strokes gained tee-to-green. This stat considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for Bay Hill over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. The course ranked 7th in greens hit last year and 2nd in 2022. It was 5th in Greens in Regulation in 2021 and 1st in Greens hit in 2020, the norm for any year of perfect weather.

Last year, tournament winner Kurt Kitayama ranked 57th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 282.0 yards per drive, and was T-1st in Fairways hit (39 of 54) and T-1st in greens hit (51 of 72). Between the three stats, he ranked 14th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

Our second category is Proximity to hole. In our ranking, we consider hitting greens one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 7th in greens in regulation, again reflecting the easy scoring conditions with the weather. Still, for the previous 12 years, nine of the winners have been in the top 9 in greens hit; taking it a step further, five of those same champions finished in the top two, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship. Last year’s winner, Kurt Kitayama, hit 51 of 72 greens and ranked 1st in his one-shot victory over Rory McIlroy and Harris English. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 11th as the field averaged 39 feet, 5 inches from the hole. Last year’s winner, Kitayama, ranked 3rd and averaged 32 feet, two inches from the hole.

Our third category is Scrambling, mainly because of its history, where many greens are missed. Since Bay Hill is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, it ranked 25th hardest, with players getting it up and down on greens, missing 58.39% of the time, while winner Kurt Kitayama ranked T-7th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 21 greens he missed.

Our last critical category is Putting inside Ten Feet. In looking at the winners’ stats, the one thing that stands out each year is that they either hit a lot of greens and don’t putt that great, or they are super in putting but don’t hit a lot of greens. The greens at Bay Hill are some of the best on the PGA Tour to putt on. The big reason is the lack of undulation, making the greens easy to read; thus, a lot of putts can be made. The most crucial aspect is to make putts inside ten feet; last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bay Hill ranked 31st (out of 41 courses) in making putts inside ten feet as the field made 88.49% of the putts in that range. As for winner Kurt Kitayama, he ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting for the week but was T-30th in Putting inside ten feet, making 62 of 69 putts. It shows how perfect the greens at Bay Hill are in making putts when you consider that Kitayama only missed seven putts inside ten feet (89.86%). For the week, Robby Shelton led that stat, with an average of 97.06%, as he only missed two putts in that distance, so it shows that putts can be made.

For those GolfStats members who have our Golf IQ subscription, check out the Golf IQ composite rankings built using our tool to obtain the field rankings.

For our members who only subscribe to our premium newsletter (which also includes our 220+ page GolfStats PGA Tour Guide), here is your data driven approach to picking your winners:

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