3M Open Preview and Picks

⛳ Welcome to This Week’s GolfStats Insider

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🏌️‍♂️ 3M Open Field

The field for the 3M Open includes 42 of the top 100 and 11 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings. Notable players include Maverick McNealy, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Chris Gotterup, Sungjae Im, Max Greyserman, Taylor Pendrith, Akshay Bhatia, Adam Scott, Tony Finau, and Sahith Theegala.

Compared to last year, which had 9 top-50 players and 37 of the top 100, this year's field shows a slight increase in top-ranked talent. Additionally, 11 of the top 50 players on the FedEx Cup standings for 2025 are participating, including Maverick McNealy, Sam Burns, Chris Gotterup, Sungjae Im, Jacob Bridgeman, Taylor Pendrith, Tom Hoge, Si Woo Kim, Sam Stevens, Akshay Bhatia, and Joe Highsmith.

This year's tournament also features four past champions: Jhonattan Vegas (2024), Lee Hodges (2023), Tony Finau (2022), and Cameron Champ (2021).

📊 Data-Driven Insights for Fantasy & Betting

If you’re serious about making the best picks this week, our GolfStats tools have you covered.

• Our Performance Chart ranks players by their average finish of all players at the 3M Open, helping you identify those who consistently contend.

• Our GolfStats Custom Formula highlights the best performers at this event over the last five years, factoring in course history and key stats.

• Our Sortable 8-Year Glance lets you track trends, breakout performances, and potential sleepers at the 3M Open.

These tools are invaluable whether you’re betting, setting a DFS lineup, or simply looking for an edge in your fantasy league. Check out the full blog post for DK fantasy advice.

⛳ Wrapping Up The Majors

The major season concluded with Scottie Scheffler's impressive victory at the Open Championship. Despite initial thoughts that the Open Championship would be a tough major for him to win without adverse weather conditions, Scheffler once again demonstrated his exceptional Sunday play. Unlike many players who become cautious with a lead, Scheffler remains aggressive, consistently pursuing birdies to extend his advantage. This fearless approach is a rare sight in golf history, reminiscent of legends like Nicklaus, Woods, and Ben Hogan. With only the U.S. Open remaining for a career Grand Slam, it's highly anticipated that Scheffler will achieve this feat at either Shinnecock or Pebble Beach.

This week and next are crucial for players aiming to secure a spot in the top 70 for the FedEx Cup playoffs. It's also important to remember that for PGA Tour cards in 2025, the cutoff is the top 100, not 125.

🏆️ 3M Open Tournament Information

Course: TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota
Yardage: 7,431 yards
Par: 35-36=71

TPC Twin Cities has hosted the 3M Open since its inception as a PGA Tour tournament in 2019. Previously, it was a popular venue for a Champions Tour event. The course's difficulty has varied over the years, influenced by factors like rough length, pin positions, and wind conditions. While initially playing easier for long-hitters, subsequent years saw increased scoring averages due to tougher setups and weather.

For instance, in 2019, the scoring average was 69.45, ranking it T-36th hardest. In 2022, with thicker rough and winds, the average rose to 71.44, making it the 14th hardest course. Last year, despite high winds gusting up to 30 mph on Sunday, the scoring average was 70.49, ranking 16th, with Jhonattan Vegas winning at 17 under par.

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This year, with summertime conditions, the course is expected to be dry and fast, potentially making it easier despite temperatures in the 90s and low humidity. The course features five holes with sharp doglegs, requiring strategic play off the tee. However, it remains a bomber's haven. The greens are small (6,500 square feet) but manageable, favoring good putters. Last year, 1,764 birdies and 62 eagles were made on the course.

The course design incorporates 10 lakes and 33 fairway bunkers, with 72 bunkers total, 39 of which guard the greens. While five holes have sharp doglegs, requiring players to lay back, the bluegrass fescue rough is not expected to pose a significant challenge for long hitters. Tournament officials have also made holes 7, 10, and 16 drivable by moving tees up, though water hazards will still make birdies challenging. The three par 5s will play over 590 yards.

Despite the absence of some marquee names, the 3M Open remains a significant PGA Tour event, well-supported by the local community. The weather forecast for this week predicts hot and muggy conditions with temperatures in the high 80s and a possibility of afternoon thunderstorms, which will add another layer of challenge for the players.

 Key Stats for Success at TPC Twin Cities

Success at TPC Twin Cities often hinges on excelling in specific statistical categories. Based on historical data from the 3M Open and player performance, four key areas stand out:

1. Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: This metric combines driving distance, accuracy, and greens in regulation. The course has historically favored longer hitters. For example, last year's winner, Jhonattan Vegas, ranked 9th in driving distance and 7th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Previous winners like Lee Hodges (2023) and Tony Finau (2022) also demonstrated strong Tee-to-Green performances, with Finau ranking 1st in this category in his winning year.

2. Greens in Regulation (GIR): TPC Twin Cities is generally considered a course where hitting greens in regulation is achievable. Last year, the course ranked 24th on Tour with 67.93% of greens hit. Winners consistently demonstrate high GIR percentages; Vegas hit 79.17% of greens, and Hodges hit 80.56% in their respective victories.

3. Strokes Gained Putting: With manageable and often undulating greens, strong putting is crucial. Last year, the course averaged 29.69 putts per round, ranking 13th. Jhonattan Vegas, the 2024 winner, ranked T-1st in Strokes Gained Putting. Lee Hodges, the 2023 champion, was 4th in this category, highlighting the importance of a hot putter on these greens.

4. Par Breakers (Birdies and Eagles): TPC Twin Cities is known for yielding a significant number of birdies and eagles. Last year, 1,764 birdies and 62 eagles were made. Winners consistently lead in this category; Vegas made 25 birdies and 1 eagle, ranking 1st in Par Breakers. Lee Hodges also made 25 birdies and two eagles in his winning performance. The ability to convert opportunities into low scores is paramount.

Historically, the 3M Open has seen unexpected winners, often players who might not be considered marquee names but excel in these crucial statistical areas. The hot and muggy weather conditions this week could further emphasize the importance of physical endurance alongside these key golf skills.

Check out the full list using our proprietary GolfStats Composite Ranking model.

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Who to watch for at the 3M Open

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