3M Open Preview and Picks

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We finally ended the major season in a significant way. All the winners were Americans. It was the first time America swept the majors since 1982, when Craig Stadler won the Masters, Tom Watson won the U.S. Open and British Open, and Ray Floyd won the PGA Championship. Two of the major winners this year, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, both have a chance of winning Player of the Year, but it will take Xander winning the Olympics and the FedExCup playoffs.

Schauffele, who joined the PGA Tour in 2017, went 28 majors before finally winning and now has won two of his last three major starts. Another remarkable feat, in both his PGA Championship and British victories, he shot 65 in the final round, a rarity when you consider that in Tiger’s 15 major wins, his lowest final round was 67 done three times. Even Jack Nicklaus, who won 18 majors, has only shot 65 twice in the final rounds at the 1967 U.S. Open and 1986 Masters.

For Xander, it was a dominant win. Can he do it again?

Of course, he has made his two major victories look easy. The question is not whether he will win another major but how many.

So how successful was Troon?

I was not there, but in emails by those at Troon, everyone was very positive. Despite poor weather, the course held up well, and it wasn’t a birdie fest like in 2022 at St. Andrews. This was the ten times they played at Troon, and we know that the R&A will return to Troon in seven to ten years. Troon and Muirfield are easily the best of all the courses that hold the Open Championship. Both courses are not as easy as St. Andrews, but they are not as tough as Carnoustie can be. Despite the poor weather and high winds, only a few players complained as Troon played great.

What about Scottie?

Scheffler shot rounds of 70-70-71-72 to finish T-7th and eight shots back of Xander. From tee to green, Scottie was good, but his problems were with the putter. He took 118 putts, which ranked T-48th. He had four more putts than Xander, who ranked T-17th.  But with all of the other stats, Xander completely outplayed Schauffele. As for their year, both made the cut in all four majors, but while Scottie was 1st at the Masters, T-8th at the PGA Championship, T-41st at the U.S. Open, and T-7th at the British, he was 17 under in his 16 major rounds. Xander was 8th in the Masters, won the PGA Championship, T-7th at the U.S. Open, and won the British Open. He was 32 under in his 16 major rounds, the best of anyone this year.

What about Rory?

Many wonder if Rory will ever win another major. He came to Troon as one of the favorites, as his game looked great the week before at the Scottish Open. But in true McIlroy fashion, McIlroy was totally lost, as he shot 78-75 to miss the cut. He only made three birdies in both rounds but had two double bogeys, a triple bogey, and seven bogeys. I have a funny feeling that until Rory comes into a major with zero questions asked, in a way like Phil Mickelson was in his 2021 PGA Championship win, he will Rory come close to winning another major? Since Rory felt his game was in great shape at all the majors this year, he only contended at the U.S. Open that it will be a long next three months before the Masters.

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The 3M Open: Playoff Push and Scorching Showdown

The dust has settled on the major season, and the focus in professional golf shifts towards the FedEx Cup Playoffs. This year's revised schedule, with events continuing past the Tour Championship, puts added pressure on players outside the top 70. The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities becomes a crucial battleground as players fight to secure their playoff positions and avoid the dreaded "post-season."

Familiar Faces on the Brink:

Several established players find themselves precariously perched on the playoff bubble. Lucas Glover (72nd), a six-time PGA Tour winner, faces an unfamiliar position outside the top 70 after consistently qualifying for the playoffs in recent years. Lee Hodges (73rd), who has enjoyed two consecutive playoff appearances, and Keith Mitchell (76th), a six-year playoff veteran, are also in the thick of the fight. Perhaps the most surprising name on the bubble is Rickie Fowler (100th). After a resurgence in 2023 with a 16th-place FedEx Cup finish, he teeters on the brink of missing the playoffs for the third time in four years. The biggest potential upset, however, lies with Matt Kuchar (155th). Kuchar boasts an unparalleled streak of 17 consecutive playoff appearances, a record he could see snapped at the 3M Open.

TPC Twin Cities: A Long Hitter's Paradise (with Caveats):

The battleground for playoff positioning unfolds at TPC Twin Cities, a course known for its generous fairways and bomber-friendly setup. Stretching over 7,431 yards and playing to a par 71, the course boasts ample opportunities for long hitters to unleash their power. However, the narrative for TPC Twin Cities isn't one-dimensional. Scoring averages have steadily risen since the inaugural 3M Open in 2019. Tournament organizers have progressively implemented adjustments to counter the long-hitting advantage: thicker rough, strategic pin placements, and the ever-present threat of wind. These changes have yielded a more balanced course that rewards a diverse skillset.

Key Course Features to Watch:

• Water Hazards: Ten lakes come into play off the tee, adding a layer of strategic decision-making for players.

• Bunkers: A total of 72 bunkers are scattered throughout the course, with 39 strategically guarding the greens.

• Par 5s: All three par 5s exceed 590 yards, requiring precise distance control and smart shot selection to reach in regulation.

• Greens: While relatively small at 6,500 square feet, the greens at TPC Twin Cities are known for their smooth rolling, rewarding good putting technique.

Uncertain Fan Turnout:

The lack of marquee names at the 3M Open compared to previous editions raises questions about potential fan turnout. However, the passionate Minnesota fanbase has a strong history of supporting their local events, as evidenced by the success of the John Deere Classic. There's a good chance that fans will still come out in force to witness this crucial week of playoff positioning.

The 3M Open promises an intriguing week of golf. Under scorching conditions, players will battle not only for position on the leaderboard but also for their playoff hopes. Will established players like Kuchar and Fowler fight their way into the top 70, or will new stars emerge? The tournament offers a compelling glimpse into the ever-evolving drama of the PGA Tour season.

Demystifying TPC Twin Cities: Stats and Strategies for Success

The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities offers a unique challenge for golfers. While the course boasts generous fairways and ample birdie opportunities, success hinges on a nuanced blend of power, precision, and short-game finesse. Let's delve into the data to uncover the key stats that have propelled past champions to victory.

The Power Game Reigns Supreme:

TPC Twin Cities caters to the long hitters on the PGA Tour. Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, a stat that combines driving distance, accuracy, and green-hitting ability, consistently ranks highly for winners. In 2023, Lee Hodges, who ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, displayed a potent combination of distance (44th) and accuracy (T-13th). Similarly, past champions like Tony Finau (2022) and Matthew Wolff (2019) also excelled in this category, highlighting the importance of distance control and finding the short grass off the tee.

Greens in Regulation: Finding the Fairway Pays Off:

While length is a valuable asset, simply blasting the ball down the fairway isn't enough. TPC Twin Cities rewards players who can consistently find the green in regulation (GIR). Last year, the course ranked 48th on Tour in terms of GIR percentage (73.37%). This emphasizes the importance of strategic course management and controlled aggression. Champions like Hodges (80.56%) and Finau (83.33%) capitalized on this opportunity, minimizing scrambling situations and maximizing birdie chances.


Putting: A Balancing Act:

While TPC Twin Cities' greens aren't known for their extreme difficulty, putting prowess remains a valuable asset. In 2023, the course ranked T-29th in putting average (1.763). Strong putting performances can certainly aid in victory, as evidenced by Cameron Champ's (2021) dominance in Strokes Gained Putting. However, other champions like Hodges (4th in Strokes Gained Putting) and Thompson (2020) (ranked 1st) haven't always relied solely on exceptional putting to secure victory.


Par Breakers: Birdies and Eagles Pave the Way:

TPC Twin Cities is a course where birdies are plentiful. With 1,869 birdies made in 2023, it presents numerous scoring opportunities. Capitalizing on these chances has been a defining factor for past champions. Hodges (25 birdies & 2 eagles) maximized his birdie opportunities, while Wolff (2019) (26 birdies & 1 eagle) even produced a dramatic final-hole eagle to clinch victory. This highlights the importance of a well-rounded short game that can convert birdie chances consistently.

The Weather Factor:

Beyond the raw statistics, weather conditions can significantly impact the course's difficulty. In 2022, thicker rough and unfavorable weather conditions inflated the scoring average (71.44) compared to the more benign conditions in 2023 (69.71). This demonstrates how golfers must adapt their strategies and shot selection based on the prevailing weather.

Conclusion: Mastering the Art of the Blend:

TPC Twin Cities demands a multifaceted approach. While long driving sets the stage for success, it's the ability to find the fairway consistently and capitalize on birdie opportunities that separates the contenders from the pretenders. Solid putting can be a valuable asset, but exceptional distance control and course management remain paramount. By understanding these key stats and mastering the art of the blend, golfers at the 3M Open can position themselves for victory at this exciting PGA Tour stop.