The Players Championship Preview and Picks

Hard to believe the season is a third over. It may be early March, but we are playing the 12th of 39 events on Tour for the year. Over the next 25 weeks, along with this week’s Players, we have four majors to play, four more signature events, and three FedEx Cup playoffs, so I guess it’s easy to say this is the start of the massive events on the PGA Tour. But in a way, that isn’t true. In past years, the Players was the first time you could count all the best players in one spot. However, with four designated events played already, the Players is just another designated event, and we have seen the best play in four other events in the last ten weeks.

The field includes all 69 of the top 70 on the FedEx point standings for 2024 are in the field. The only player not in the field is #70 Erik Barns, who, if he won the Puerto Rico playoff, would have been in the field, but with his win, Brice Garnett got into the field.

Unfortunately because of LIV Golf these players aren’t in the field #3 Jon Rahm, #16 Tyrrell Hatton, #31 Brooks Koepka, #52 Adrian Meronk, #54 Cameron Smith, #64 Thorbjorn Olesen, #75 Thriston Lawrence and #80 Joaquin Niemann.

The field includes 9 past champions: Scottie Scheffler (2023), Justin Thomas (2021), Rory McIlroy (2019), Webb Simpson (2018), Si Woo Kim (2017), Jason Day (2016), Rickie Fowler (2015), Matt Kuchar (2012), and Adam Scott (2004).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Players Championship field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in GolfStats that gives us the best average performances at the Players Championship in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Players Championship.

Golf is a much different game now

Gambling has become significant, and this week, for picking your pro players, choosing the right player is so important with such a high first-place prize. As for gamblers, The Players Championship is one of the most harrowing events for picking winners. Over time, the course has evolved into a masterpiece and a different course from year in and year out. In looking at the Players Championship, it’s hard to find anyone you can say is the right horse this week for the TPC Sawgrass. In the 41 times that the Players have played at TPC Sawgrass, only four have won it twice: Davis Love III, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Steve Elkington, and Tiger Woods. Of all the tournaments played for over 20 years on the PGA Tour, The Players Championship is the only non-fall, full-field event the defending champion has yet to win. Looking at the Players Championship field, it’s hard to pinpoint a horseplayer for this course, but if anyone had a chance to win back-to-back, it’s Scheffler this week.

Who is hot right now?

Not many players can claim to be “hot” right now. Of course, we can say that Scottie Scheffler is hot, but after that? We could have said that Jake Knapp, who won in Mexico three weeks ago, finished T-4th at Cognizant. But at Bay Hill, he opened with a 77, then shot 81 in the third round to finish T-57th.

Hideki Matsuyama won at Genesis and shot 67-70 to lead after the second round. But he had leg pain over the weekend, shooting 72-76 to finish T-12th. With the possibility of him having pain in his leg, neck, or back, I will not take a gamble on him. Sam Burns looked great after opening rounds of 68-72 at Bay Hill. Burns has four top-tens in five starts and was in contention in the final round but hit his tee shot out of bounds on Sunday, leading to a triple-bogey. He made another triple on the back nine and shot 78 to finish T-30th. His hot stretch may be over.

Wyndham Clark did finish 2nd at Bay Hill. He won at Pebble last month, so maybe he is a person to watch, but his record at Sawgrass is dismal. In five starts, he only made one cut, finishing T-27th last year.

If we look at a person who could have a great week, it could be Will Zalatoris.  Coming back from surgery in which he took 8 months off, he was slow to start but was T-2d at the Genesis and T-4th at Bay Hill. Will has played three times at the Players, and his best finish was 21st in his debut in 2021. I have to like him the best of anyone else.

One thing to know about the players is that each year has its share of long shots that do well. Last year, Min Woo Lee had a part of the lead in the early stages of the final round before finishing T-6th.  Nobody knew who Doug Ghim was, but he finished T-6th in 2022. Nobody knew much of Brian Harman in 2021 until he finished T-3rd. In 2016, nobody knew about Francesco Molinari until he finished T-7th at the Players; the following year, he finished T-6th.

Things you need to know about the Players Championship:

This week, we have the crowning jewel of the PGA Tour, The Players. This is the 50th edition, played at the TPC Stadium Course every year since 1982. Besides the four majors, it’s the fifth most important tournament in men’s professional golf. In looking at the field over the last couple of years, only one other tournament in golf has gotten more top-100 ranked players, the PGA Championship. Thanks to LIV Golf, those days are probably finished, as the four majors will be the only place where all the best will be together for one event. We continue to see the importance of changing dates from May to March; this will be the fifth time in a row that the Players will be in March. But the course has had a lot of rain in the last couple of weeks, so tournament officials will need help getting a firm and fast course. If the weather does get windy, which isn’t forecast, but you never know since the course is just a mile from the ocean, we could have a very tough course this year. So look for high scores, as the weather and wind will make it challenging.

TPC Sawgrass features a course rating of 76.8 and a slope rating from the back tees of 155. The tees and fairways are Celebration Bermudagrass, while the rough is 419 Bermudagrass. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda with some poa in them, which has become very popular in the Southeast. The course played to a 72.45 average last year and was the 13th toughest course on the Tour.

The average green size is 5,500, which is small and makes the targets harder. Small greens emphasize shotmaking more, but you have to be useful in getting it up and down. Water is on all 18 holes, but for the pros, it comes into play on 11 holes. There are 92 bunkers around the course, along with many waste areas in the fairways. To win, you have to be a great ball striker and also be able to putt.

Four Key Stats That Are Important in Playing at TPC Sawgrass

Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as being very important. The stat considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for TPC Sawgrass over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. The course ranked 8th in driving distance on all holes; in driving accuracy, the course was 31st; and in greens hit, it ranked 9th last year. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.
Last year, tournament winner Scottie Scheffler ranked 5th in driving distance, averaging 293.2 yards per drive on all holes. He was T-18th in Driving Accuracy hit, and 1st in greens hit. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Scheffler was 1st, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 5th.

The second important stat is Proximity to hole. In our ranking, hitting greens is one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 9th in greens in regulation, again reflecting how hard-hitting greens at TPC Sawgrass are. Still, for the previous 19 years, 13 of the winners have been in the top 15 in greens hit; taking it a step further, those same champions, eleven of them finished in the top five with nine in the top 3, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship.

Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, hit 54 of 72 greens and ranked 1st in his five-shot victory. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with Proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 10th as the field averaged 40 feet from the hole. Last year’s winner, Scheffler, ranked T-17th and averaged 36 feet, nine inches from the hole.

Our third important stat is scrambling since the course is a shot-maker delight. You can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you had better get it up and down to play well. Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked 13th in scrambling out of 58 courses, getting it up and down 55.99% of the time. Winner Scheffler was ranked 4th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 18 greens he missed.

Our final stat is vital, Strokes Gained Putting.
We picked this stat because most past Players’ winners are notoriously good putters. Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked 45th in Putting average, 51st in One-Putt Percentage, 28th in three-putt Avoidance, and T-28th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 86.34% of the putts in this range were made.
Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, ranked 34th in Putting Average, T-70th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 60th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 61 out of 70 of the putts in this range. With all of these stats, he was 48th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .107 shots.

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